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Using data released Friday morning, Jeremy Piger updated his estimates of U.S. recession probabilities through August of 2009. The results now suggest that the probability of recession was below 50% for both July and August. He notes that: According to...

Stimulating thoughts, 3rd quarter edition - Paul Krugman Employment costs fall to record lows - MarketWatch The Runway Lies Ahead Like A Great False Dawn - Market Talk Counting jobs - Greed, Green and Grains Band of Dems Blasts Geithner...

Mikhail Gorbachev says the crisis "was needed to reveal the organic defects of the present model of western development that was imposed on the rest of the world": The Berlin wall had to fall, but today's world is no fairer,...

[click on figure to enlarge, via, story]

Centrists have a choice to make: The Defining Moment, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: O.K., folks, this is it. It’s the defining moment for health care reform. ...[L]egislation ... will almost surely pass. It’s not a perfect bill, by...

Tim Duy: Sustainable Growth?, by Tim Duy: October is becoming my lost month. Between the beginning of Fall term and my annual conference in Portland, the month is a blur, and time to blog becomes a luxury. Now, however, I...

Some pushback against a recent article that questions the value of giving people on Social Security a $250 check to stimulate the economy and denounces President Obama for pandering to the elderly: Are Those $250 Social Security Checks Just Pandering...

The intergenerational transfer of wealth and advantage is nothing new, but what causes it?: Inequality, 'silver spoon' effect found in ancient societies, EurekAlert: The so-called "silver spoon" effect -- in which wealth is passed down from one generation to another...

The recession probably ended in June - Free exchange Naming Systemically Dangerous Firms - The Baseline Scenario Why the renminbi has to rise to address imbalances - Martin Feldstein P vs. NP - MIT News Geithner’s Regulation Plan for Big...

The stimulus package in action: GDP Expanded 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, WSJ: The economy expanded in the third quarter after shrinking for four consecutive quarters, likely marking an end to the worst recession since World War II. But the recovery...

As I've noted here several times in the past, most recently with respect to health care, we do not always believe that the market system allocates goods and services equitably, and in those cases we often ration the good or...

China sends a message: China to investigate US car subsidies, by Sarah O’Connor: China is preparing to launch a trade investigation into whether US carmakers are being unfairly subsidised by the US government... The move comes at a time of...

Martin Feldstein says bond markets disagree with him, so they must be wrong: The global impact of America’s healthcare debate, Commentary, Project Syndicate: Since assuming the presidency earlier this year, Barack Obama’s ... proposals are meeting strong opposition from fiscally-conservative...

Novel Analysis Confirms Climate "Hockey Stick" Graph - Scientific American SuperFreakonomics Ignores Business Case for Sustainability - Climate Progress Can renewable energy save the world? - voxeu.org How to avoid a repeat of the Great Crash - FT.com Newspapers aren't...

Part of an interview of Michael Woodford: Q&A: Economist Woodford on Fed and Rate Expectations, RTE: ...Given the importance of financial stability for the wider economy, do you think financial stability should play a greater or explicit role in the...

Spencer at Angry Bear on the "secular decline in labor's share of the pie": Labor's Share, by Spencer: The issue of a jobless recovery is getting a lot of attention recently. I've found the best way to look at the...

Jeff Sachs says we need to be sure that climate control legislation is not captured by powerful special interest groups: A Clunker of a Climate Policy, by Jeffrey D. Sachs, Commentary, Scientific American: The Cash for Clunkers program offers a...

Luigi Zingales is worried that populist anger might fall into the hands of evil Democrats rather than Republicans who would, of course, use this strong populist force for good: Pro-Market Populism Is GOP's Out, by Luigi Zingales, Commentary, investors.com: ...[T]he...

Bill Would Shift Cost of Rescuing Banks to Large Companies - NYTimes.com Improving financial regulation and supervision - Econbrowser Efficient Market Theory and the Crisis - Jeremy J. Siegel - WSJ.com $250 Checks for Social Security Recipients Overlook Reality -...

As many of us have been saying for some time now, more stimulus would speed the recovery -- the jobs outlook is particularly worrisome -- but unfortunately, it doesn't appear that more stimulus is politically feasible: The Case for More...

Daniel Gross says it's no mystery why the Chamber of Commerce suddenly finds itself on the outside looking in: The Chamber's Mistakes, by Daniel Gross, Commentary, Slate: This has been a rough period for the Chamber of Commerce, the Washington,...

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Guillermo Calvo sketches an outline of a theoretical framework to explain the crisis. In this model, the demand for international reserves, low US interest rate policy and lax financial regulation leads to the creation of fragile financial instruments and the...

American climate change skepticism growing too - Andrew Norton Fixed rates and protectionism, 2009 edition - Paul Krugman Private Saving, Household Saving, and Rebalancing - Econbrowser International reserves and easy money may have caused the crisis - G. Calvo A...

Joseph Stiglitz says there's a diverse set of ideas within the economics profession, ideas that go beyond the "self-regulating, fully efficient markets that always remain at full employment" pushed by some economists. These ideas have had trouble finding their way...

I can't say I stay awake at nights worrying about the super human part, but inequality in health care is an issue: Will the Super Rich Evolve Into a Separate Species?, Discover Blog: As medicine becomes super advanced, and super...

I'm probably missing the finer philosophical points in this discussion of self-interest (e.g. the proposed solution to the logical inconsistency associated with the idea that a person's own well-being is especially significant, and whether a stable self exists at all),...

The Economic Bomb That Didn’t Drop - The Caucus The Big Banks Should Be Broken Up - Robert Reich Why banks stay big - The New Yorker Notes on Why Banks Stay Big - The New Yorker Trying to Rein...

One health care reform passes, and it looks more and more like it will, is there any reason to be optimistic that the highly politically compromised reform bill will actually help people?: After Reform Passes, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY...

Lucian Bebchuk says there's no need for the government to protect bondholders in a financial crisis: Governments must not bail out bondholders, by Lucian Bebchuk, Commentary, Project Syndicate: A year after the United States government allowed ... Lehman Brothers to...

Lessons from the Great Depression: The Roots of Protectionism in the Great Depression, by Laurent Belsie, NBER Reporter: The Great Depression was a breeding ground for protectionism. Output fell, prices declined, and unemployment rose, pressuring governments to do something to...

How an Insurance Mandate Could Leave Many Worse Off - Tyler Cowen Why the Economy Needs Spending, Not Tax Cuts - Bruce Bartlett Greg Ip reviews books with lessons from economic history - washingtonpost Adjustment and the dollar - Paul...