Margie's Blog

Margie Commented on A Night At The Congressional Races by Eric Kleefeld

2008-10-30T23:04:10Z

Polls that were wrong.

976Late July - Gallup
Jimmy Carter 62%
Gerald Ford 30%

Final Results
Carter 50.1%
Ford 48.0%

Average MOE - 14.95% This sort of shift would make it a blowout for either side of the aisle.

1980 (this one's for those of you who say - "polls shift over time") Nov 1980, Gallup Pre-Election Poll
Carter 44%
Reagan 41%

Final Results
Reagan 50.7%
Carter 41.0%
Average MOE - 5.85% = the margin of error in every GE poll this year. This really embarrassed the pollsters, so of course, they went ahead and did it again.

1988
5/17 - NYT/CBS
Michael Dukakis 49%
George Bush 39%

Final Results
Bush 53.4%
Dukakis 45.6%

Average MOE - 7.9% A shift like what occurred in 1988 would make any Democrat the winner or the loser by a healthy margin.

1992
June 1992 Time/CNN
Ross Perot 37%
George Bush 24%
Bill Clinton 24%

Final Results
Clinton 43.0%
Bush 37.4%
Perot 18.9%

Average MOE - 20.1%. Imagine if Bloomberg's runs, I foresee similar dynamics.

2000
Sept 2000 Newsweek
Al Gore 49%
George W. Bush 39%

Final Results
Bush 47.9%
Gore 48.4%

Average MOE - 4.8% So all the undecided went for Bush, eh? Polls are worthless in close races. Hmmm, sounds familiar, doesn't it?In conclusion, the only poll that matters is the one on election day.

Margie Commented on TPM Track Composite: Obama's Lead Edges Up by Eric Kleefeld

2008-10-30T22:55:35Z

I am afraid to hope. The polls have been wrong so often and this race is so close. No one can call it before early Wednesday morning.

Margie Commented on Report: Al Gore To Campaign For Obama In Florida by Greg Sargent

2008-10-30T14:17:17Z

They aren't leaving anything to chance..that's for sure!

If you've ever seen the record on national polls that missed altogether, you'd understand why.

Margie Commented on The Obama Infomercial: How To Spend Their War Chest Before The Election Is Over by Eric Kleefeld

2008-10-30T02:04:33Z

Bob and I just watched the Obama infomercial and he just laid out the same plan he has laid out every time he speaks but he does it with such conviction that one has to believe he can do it.

This ad, which aired on CBS, NBC, Fox, BET, Univision, MSNBC, and TV One, was powerful. If this doesn't put the man in the White House, it will be because of America's racism.

I particularly liked it when he said, "I will not be a perfect president, but I can promise you this, I will always tell you what I think and Where I stand." That's so refreshing after eight years of a man who cannot bring himself to admit he was wrong.

He discussed health care as well as the nation's economic problems. He stressed his plan to offer tax cuts to the middle class and raise taxes on those who make over $250,000 a year. And, once again, he referred to our present situation as the "final verdict on eight years of failed policies." The video showed a lot of his supporters as well as ordinary people.

McCain, whose campaign could not afford to do this, sniped at Obama. "He's got a few things he wants to sell you. He's offering government run health care, an energy plan guaranteed to work without drilling, and an automatic wealth spreader that folds neatly and fits under any bed." Sour grapes, I'd say. McCain needs to check with FactCheck.org.

The ad did not appear on ABC because by the time they decided to sell Obama the time, the buy was already made.

Obama's eldest daughter, Malia, 10, was afraid the ad was going to make her miss her programs. Obama had to tell her that they did not buy the Disney Channel. That relieved her.

This is a good and decent man and we don't see a lot of those in Washington. I urge all my readers to vote for him.

Oh, as a postscript:

Joe the Plumber says Obama hates Israel. The Republicans had better put a bucket over that guy's head. Between him and Palen, they are going to lose all credibility with intelligent voters.

Margie Commented on Blogging Without the Option of Comment by CVille Dem

2008-10-29T23:22:59Z

It would be good if those who post here would try to be civil to one another and just put the facts here so we can discuss the issues.

Now I am a registered Republican who voted for Clinton and now am voting for Obama. I want a president with a brain...an intelligent man or woman. We've had eight years of a president who makes ignorant remarks. I'm ready for a president who thinks through decisions and does not have a hair trigger temper.

Margie Commented on McCain Campaign Attacks TPM, Keeps Denying Our "Carved B" Story by Greg Sargent

2008-10-29T16:44:45Z

It's really kind of sad the things some of the Republicans will stoop to in order to close the gap and have a chance at election. It may not have been one of McCain's top people who pulled this stunt. Surely McCain's people are aware of the power of the internet in spreading the word....truth as well as lies.

No sane person would want to give credence to a story based on a lie knowing it would hit the internet and be uncovered as to what it really is.

Margie Commented on TPM Track Composite: Obama's Lead Cut By One Point by Eric Kleefeld

2008-10-28T21:47:09Z

The margin of error isn't very much and I think our hope (those of us voting for Obama) is that those with cell phones have not been counted and they may balance out or overpower the racist vote.