I'm just re-reading Sy Hersch's Chain of Command:  From 9/11 to Abu Ghraib. Although I first read it in Baghdad,  I am reminded that the response to terror (Afghanistan theater) was also screwed up utterly (in ways sometimes like in Iraq, and sometimes not comparable).

If I had been Bush,  this is what I would have done beginning September 12, 2001 (the first problem I have is the most of my advisors are incompetent, whack jobs, or double-dealers, of course):  

1.  It was obvious that it was Al Qaeda, so they're the target.  Don't tell anyone this except maybe 5-10 with greatest need to know.  Ultra-secret and maintain deception throughout about it.

2.  Take Wolfowitz's imbecilic idea that Al Qaeda attacks are too complicated in their planning, and thus had to be  hatched by a state/country, not  just some group, and RUN WITH THIS STUPIDITY LIKE THE DICKENS for misdirection purposes:  Officially conclude that it had to be a state and name possible suspects such as:  Iraq, Iran, N. Korea, Syria, Lebanon acting on Syria's behalf, and Venezuela/regional state-supported inter-American "strongmen", and possibly other state actors.  We're not accusing, mind you, just fact-gathering.

3. Throw up gigantic smoke screens about carefully checking all this terribly important gotta-be-a-state B.S. and "promote" incompetent Condi to help organize this charade while keeping her in the dark overall.  Hire think tanks to act as mock-prosecutors against each of the phony suspect states one-after-the-next and use a one-state-a-month approach beginning in Jan. or Feb. 2002.  Involve intelligence community and State Dep't in this road show (I may move Powell into the White House while he nominally keeps his main job).  This buys us time all the way till summer or fall of 2002 so we can ostensibly plan a U.N. security council meeting in fall 2002 then to look at the conclusions.  Encourage press to discuss it all!  Emphasize need to be thorough, importance of patience, and how we'll strike back at the state at a time of our choosing, hopefully with U.N. authorization.  If anybody says it's Al Qaeda, then send Rumsfeld/Wolfowitz and if need be Cheney out to say we already know it's a state so stop being on the side of the terrorists by distracting.  Control the risk that Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld, Feith may go off the reservation through whatever means (Feith is reputed to be an Israeli spy anyway, so one probably wants to move him to Veterans Affairs or some place where he doesn't need a clearance just in case ("This is an extremely important assignment for the country, Doug!" :) ) and pull that clearance just in case.  Richard Perle who has always got his nose in can be controlled by offering him sleazy contracts on one hand and threatening him on the other, carrot and stick.  (I may not realize at first how much Rumsfeld will get in Condi's way, the preening egomaniacal rapscallion, but if/when he doesn't cooperate, I let him know sternly I'll publicly fire him if it happens again.  Since I can't fire Cheney as elected V.P. by the way, I try to figure out if he can really be loyal (probably he can), but if he's too close to Rumsfeld/Israel lobby to be a team player for me, then just freeze him out and he's not on the ticket for 2004 because of his bad health.

4.  Admit to myself that my own thoroughly ridiculous ideas about a leaner, lighter military and missile defensewere nothing more than a lazy campaign pipe dream and even if they might somehow have validity, this is by no means the time, so they're off the table for the first term at least.

5.  Carefully and very quietly gather actionable intelligence on where Osama is and will be, along with his chief lieutenants/co-conspirators in South Asia and around the globe.  All very routine, of course, but actionable and possibly inolving ground teams.  He may make this easier for me BTW by jumping up and down resenting that he doesn't get the credit.  If he claims credit, write him off as a nobody crackpot exploiting Muslims and further gather intelligence, and even if his people somehow were involved they're not the big fish and it's just laughable and not of real interest to USA.

6.  Work quietly on a program to reduce tensions with the Muslim world and some of this will include reigning in Israel's expansionism; so be it - better I get the credit for imposing order than some Dem. who might get elected in 2008!   Also, break down that finance network simultaneously but that's naturally not aimed at anyone in particular and it's the same policy worldwide.  Except we happen to make sure the policy works *real* well for Osama and friends.  Politics: BTW we're not caving in to any Muslim pressure related to 9/11 by reducing sources of tension since we nominally suspect Venezuela/regional "strongmen" and North Korea equally if not more than Muslim countries.. 

7.  Build on initial positive post-9/11 sense of common purpose with allies/potential allies.  Don't bully and encircle Russia, for example.  So "20th hijacker" Moussaoui is a French citizen and the French find death penalty inconceivable and utterly offensive no matter what the crime?  No prob. - no death penalty for the murderous swine then, but please help us out, okay, France?  I/we also give some of those suspect countries like Syria and maybe even Iran and Iraq a chance to show us how goody-two-shoes they really are, if they like.  Maybe there are quiet ways they can help and thus prove it's not them, whatever.

8.  Do some joint exercises as to how to deal with the villain state once it's found.  These could be in e.g. NATO countries, Ukraine, ex-Yugoslavia, Oceania (maybe do a repeat in the Americas) probably not closer than those places to Afghanistan (and indeed nowhere near its borders).  Drum up interest as to which state it might be from that phony list, what kind of clothing soldiers will need to travel to that state and fight, language considerations, climate, all sorts of baloney to LULL THE PERPETRATOR INTO A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY/INDETECTION.  Pump up the importance of what it's like to go against a state's armed forces on the field of battle as further misdirection.  (The exercise locations can have a disguised operational purpose as to no. 9 below if needed.)  Later on tell the poor shmoes who hosted exercises how bloody useful it was BTW.

9.  Send Delta force in to kill Obama's criminally insane ass whenever it's a good time (plus any of his top people we can get at the same time as well so they can't scatter), probably only half way through the above con job (or earlier) but there's no rush.  Delta gets whatever backup they need, BTW, but they *don't* get led by (1) a muddy-boots General like Franks (who may be a great muddy-boots General but not for special ops) or (2) a psycho like Rumsfeld, but rather by special ops/counterinsurgency experts that the NSC meets  with daily.   Delta needs to have no-fail punch power and flexibility, and while the operations can't be too loud as to give a tipoff, they also need enough redundancy (and potential redundancy / resources-only in-case-needed) to make certain the mass murderer doesn't escape unharmed.  BTW if Rumsfeld makes trouble during any of this, he's gone.

10.  With Osama dead, explain to American people that we were always researching alternative theories besides states, never ruled 'em out, and hold ourselves a big parade amd barbecue.  Thank allies, make amends with phony suspects.  Send Wolfowitz and probably Rumsfeld to some other posts not in foreign/defense policy and fire Feith, Condi and her loser deputy Steven Hadley.  If the facts warrant, check into possible prison time for double-dealer Perle.  Continue to rout out Al Qaeda remnants going forward, while pursuing a less-provocative policy.

Critique:  This is Monday-morning quarterbacking so it's biased and unfair.  Plus the public won't support my strategy above as it's too slow and quiet.

Critique of the Critique:   It's unfair to *me* that I had this shoddy team to work with; where did these weird people come from?!!  Either way, the above is honestly what I would have done, every bit of it.  Number 9 is somewhat informed by the subsequent factual perspective, that's true, but I would never have needed Franks in any case since it's not a war against Afghanistan but a covert action program.  I recognized from the start that without super-secrecy and distraction, I might not get a shot at Bin Laden, and it has to be a cat-burglar type operation if I'm going to get him without scaring him off.  Plus I don't care squat about Afghanistan; I want Bin Laden and his organization smashed.   I admit the U.S. public may not love this as it could be slow, but our people feed them tidbits about the phony suspects throughout to keep them going, like watching a detective show.  There is a lot of support for President in 9/11 aftermath, and I try to build on that to keep them on board.  Plus we catch the mass-murderer probably by around Feb. or March 2002 so it doesn't really go on that long.  And the public will thank me later and I won't be the odds-on favorite for worst President in U.S. history!

Copyright © J.D. 2009 - Overeach THIS!