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   <title>M Miller&apos;s Blog</title>
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   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/m_miller//2056</id>
   <updated>	2008-10-31T12:55:40Z	2008-10-30T11:45:50Z	2008-10-30T11:24:45Z	2008-10-27T15:33:31Z	2008-10-23T13:55:55Z	2008-10-23T13:37:13Z	2008-10-23T13:25:12Z	2008-10-23T13:23:18Z	2008-10-23T13:22:11Z	2008-10-21T23:29:44Z	2008-10-21T13:09:56Z		2008-10-13T16:26:18Z</updated>
   
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			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.241248-comment:3262601</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/cbsnyt_poll_obama_winning_big.php#c3262601" />
		
		    <title>M Miller Commented on CBS/NYT Poll: Obama Winning Big -- If New Voters Turn Out by Eric Kleefeld</title>
		        
			<published>2008-10-31T12:55:40Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-10-31T12:55:40Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>I figured out what the numbers would be with regular voters in this poll.</p>

<p>Regular voters: 87% of the electorate<br />
Obama 50.8%, McCain 42.5% (8.3% margin)</p>

<p>New voters: 13% of electorate<br />
Obama 60%, McCain 31% (29% margin).</p>

<p>Total votes: (100% of electorate)<br />
Obama 52%, McCain 41% (11% margin).</p>

<p>Not too much different.</p>

<p>Here's how I figured it out.</p>

<p>Obama's number x(.87)+60(.13)=52(1)<br />
McCain's number y(.87)+52(.13)=41(1)</p>

<p>The stuff in the parenthesis is multiplying the numbers by .87 for the 87% regular voters, and .13 for the 13% new voters.  You add new + regular to get the total vote which is 1 or 100%.</p>

<p>blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah....</p>]]>
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			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.240964-comment:3260136</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/north_carolina_senate_race_deg.php#c3260136" />
		
		    <title>M Miller Commented on North Carolina Senate Race Degenerates Into Shouting Match About Atheists by Eric Kleefeld</title>
		        
			<published>2008-10-30T11:45:50Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-10-30T11:45:50Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>To ramble on a little bit more, knowing the bible as I do (pretty decently), Obama has a LOT in common with Jesus.  If you know what the bible says, this will make a LOT of sense to you.</p>

<p>Jesus went to red states and stayed in them as much as he possibly could.  He went through the crowds to help people.  His life was help people.  His life was to do what he could for the starving, poor, and sick.  He didn't sit around and take things from people and build himself a temple (measured the drapes) to worship himself and to sit idly with a massive ego.  He was biased in his own right, for what he believed and wanted people to know what he believed.  He sent his followers out to talk to people to to tell what he believed.</p>

<p>The establishment hated him.  The traditionalists hated him.  The people liked him until their traditionalists that they followed told them he was a fake and then they stopped believing in him and they spit on him.</p>

<p>Coming from where he did, he wanted to perfect and evolve what the traditionalists wanted into something better, but they were so stuck in their ways and felt threatened until finally they did away with him.  He was too different.  Too revolutionary.  They had to hold on to their traditions.</p>]]>
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			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.240964-comment:3260119</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/north_carolina_senate_race_deg.php#c3260119" />
		
		    <title>M Miller Commented on North Carolina Senate Race Degenerates Into Shouting Match About Atheists by Eric Kleefeld</title>
		        
			<published>2008-10-30T11:24:45Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-10-30T11:24:45Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>I hate being accused of believing in things I don't.  If I'm a Muslim, I don't want to be accused of being a Christian, or vice versa.</p>

<p>I myself am a Christian, but I'm a leftwing Christian (not just left-leaning).  My beliefs have evolved from being typical ignorant hell's fire and brimstone rightwing to being enlightened.  I can find things in the bible itself to back up right-wing politics and less dumbed-down reasons for why certain things were written in the bible.</p>

<p>To start off: Adam and Eve weren't the first people.  Adam actually, if you look it up, means "man" in Hebrew but it was translated as the name Adam.  In the beginning, God created evolution.  God created the earth in seven ages/periods of time (not days).</p>

<p>The Urantia book actually adds to these things that I talk about but from a totally different perspective than one could ever imagine anything that backs up some of the bible.</p>

<p>Christians are usually pretty ignorant.  At least the ones that shout the loudest.</p>

<p>I'm not looking for anyone to agree with me or to comment on what I believe, I just want to show some of the readers out here that may not know there are interpretations of the bible that people believe that actually has some intelligence involved with it and makes sense more than the "God shit out Adam" story.</p>]]>
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            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.240187-comment:3253094</id>
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		    <title>M Miller Commented on A Day At The Congressional Races by Eric Kleefeld</title>
		        
			<published>2008-10-27T15:33:31Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-10-27T15:33:31Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>Snoopy must be campaigning for Charlie Brown pretty hard.</p>]]>
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			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.239300-comment:3245888</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/election_central_morning_round_190.php#c3245888" />
		
		    <title>M Miller Commented on Election Central Morning Roundup by Eric Kleefeld</title>
		        
			<published>2008-10-23T13:55:55Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-10-23T13:55:55Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>I'll do that.  I learned my lesson.  I don't wanna be double-posting n00b.</p>]]>
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			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.239300-comment:3245840</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/election_central_morning_round_190.php#c3245840" />
		
		    <title>M Miller Commented on Election Central Morning Roundup by Eric Kleefeld</title>
		        
			<published>2008-10-23T13:37:13Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-10-23T13:37:13Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>Even in rural areas?  That's pretty interesting.</p>

<p>Even where Obama has tons of support from people in this super red area (where 50% of the people remind you of Bill Frist and the other 50% remind you of some trailer park NRA members) rural is absolutely red when it comes to the signs.  My friend's father won't even put an Obama sign up because he's afraid of the neighbors that live around him.</p>

<p>The city governments are overrun with Republicans too.  </p>

<p>Suicide is the only option.</p>]]>
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			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.239300-comment:3245822</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/election_central_morning_round_190.php#c3245822" />
		
		    <title>M Miller Commented on Election Central Morning Roundup by Eric Kleefeld</title>
		        
			<published>2008-10-23T13:25:12Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-10-23T13:25:12Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>whoops.  They must not be running Linux/Unix on their server.  I didn't see it already posted.  It just errored out on me.</p>]]>
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			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.239300-comment:3245818</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/election_central_morning_round_190.php#c3245818" />
		
		    <title>M Miller Commented on Election Central Morning Roundup by Eric Kleefeld</title>
		        
			<published>2008-10-23T13:23:18Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-10-23T13:23:18Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>If Obama wins here in Indiana, it will have a lot to do with the area I live in, very close to Michigan, and also the area near Chicago.</p>

<p>The area I live in has an astronomical unemployment rate, the highest in Indiana, because the RV & trailer industry has been falling/fell on its face because of the economy. </p>

<p>Going over to the Gary/Portage/Hammond area of the state, in the northwest, right next to Chicago, it IS like Chicago.  You want to talk about rural...  leave the city I live in, you'll end up in the middle of no where and remain there for about an hour each direction except west.</p>

<p>Obama signs everywhere here.  Leave town, out in the boonies, nothing but McCain signs.</p>]]>
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			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.239300-comment:3245812</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/election_central_morning_round_190.php#c3245812" />
		
		    <title>M Miller Commented on Election Central Morning Roundup by Eric Kleefeld</title>
		        
			<published>2008-10-23T13:22:11Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-10-23T13:22:11Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>If Obama wins here in Indiana, it will have a lot to do with the area I live in, very close to Michigan, and also the area near Chicago.</p>

<p>The area I live in has an astronomical unemployment rate, the highest in Indiana, because the RV & trailer industry has been falling/fell on its face because of the economy. </p>

<p>Going over to the Gary/Portage/Hammond area of the state, in the northwest, right next to Chicago, it IS like Chicago.  You want to talk about rural...  leave the city I live in, you'll end up in the middle of no where and remain there for about an hour each direction except west.</p>

<p>Obama signs everywhere here.  Leave town, out in the boonies, nothing but McCain signs.</p>]]>
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			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.238886-comment:3242666</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/poll_palin_is_now_the_top_conc.php#c3242666" />
		
		    <title><![CDATA[M Miller Commented on <![CDATA[Poll: Palin Is Now The <i>Top Concern</i> Voters Have About McCain]]&gt; by Greg Sargent]]></title>
		        
			<published>2008-10-21T23:29:44Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-10-21T23:29:44Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>Hey guys, whassup wit all the Palin hate?  I'm a lonely guy and wouldn't mind having a night wit her daughter, the pregnant one...</p>

<p>Oh, did I just say that out loud?</p>]]>
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			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.238568-comment:3240867</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/polls_obama_and_mccain_running.php#c3240867" />
		
		    <title>M Miller Commented on Polls: Obama And McCain Running Close In Key Red States by Eric Kleefeld</title>
		        
			<published>2008-10-21T13:09:56Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-10-21T13:09:56Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>Regardless of if he concedes <b>CO</b> or not, I think he's running an EXTREMELY uphill battle.</p>

<p>He probably sees a 286-252 Obama win if Obama wins the Kerry states + <b>VA, CO, IA, & NM</b> which is extremely likely to be the end result at this point if the election is today.  That leaves him to need <b>PA</b> to wipe out exactly ALL EV from those Obama pickups except <b>VA</b>'s which puts it at 273-265 for a McCain win.</p>

<p>The <b>NV</b> problem comes in if Obama wins it because it puts it at 270-268 for an Obama win.</p>

<p>That 270-268 I just mentioned, to sum it up, means <b>NV, VA, CO, IA, & NM</b> flip to blue, and <b>PA</b> flips to red.  That's why <b>NV</b> is so important to keep and <b>PA</b> has to be won since they think their chances in <b>CO</b> & <b>VA</b> (and of course <b>IA</b> & <b>NM</b> to a larger degree) are shot to hell.  </p>

<p>Flipping <b>NH</b> to red on top of all that would give McCain a win (272-266).  That's probably his next hope because there aren't really any other blue states to win for McCain and I'm seeing that <b>PA</b> would be harder to flip than <b>NH</b>.  Its all still most likely futile though.</p>

<p>To compound the above written statements, what happens if Obama picks off <b>Missouri or Florida or Ohio or Florida or North Carolina</b> on top of it all?  That's not as imminent as the other states listed above, but a major possibility.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/" rel="nofollow">FiveThirtyEight.com</a> backs up what I'm talking about, for the most part.</p>

<p>I'm an election junkie when it comes to the math of this election.  Don't believe me?  Look at the page I've worked on for a while now:<br />
<a href="http://dawabbit.mine.nu/ProjectionSummary.html" rel="nofollow">2008 Electoral Vote Projection Summary</a>.  Please don't haX0r my box.  Its my home PC running my webserver.</p>]]>
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			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.236657-comment:3225161</id>
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		    <title>M Miller Commented on Sarah Palin To Hold Rally -- In Indiana by Greg Sargent</title>
		        
			<published>2008-10-13T16:26:18Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-10-13T16:26:18Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>I sure hope not.  I don't really want to be forced to move back to the U.S.</p>]]>
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