Obama doing excellent, better than Kerry - Election projections summary
http://dawabbit.mine.nu/ProjectionSummary.html
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Base states include
leaners unless noted Rasm Rasm
only base RCP RCP
only base RCP
no tossups MSNBC
(Now) MSNBC
(Now) only base MSNBC
(proj. Oct 26th) 538 Zogby Rasm 2004 Election
where Kerry shown as Obama
Obama lead in base 46 45 75 42 106 28 54 28 37 127 -36
Obama needs to win0 60 32 129 0 53 80 10 6 0 84
Red state toss-ups38 121 (202%)116 (363%) 187 (145%) 70 lost 90 (170%)150 (188%) 42 (420%) 47 (783%) 119 56 (67%)
Blue state toss-ups0 42 (70%)21 (66%) 111 (86%) 0 lost 42 (79%) 62 (78%) 4 (40%) 0 (0%) 0 74 (88%)
Difference (EV) Red +38 Red +79 Red +95Red +76 Red +70 Red +48 Red +88 Red +38 Red +47 Red +119 Blue +18
The percentages in the toss-up columns represents the % of Electoral Votes available from the red/blue state compared to how many is Needed by Obama. In other words, Kerry needed 84 EV and the number of toss-up red states was 67% of that. The number of blue state toss-ups was 88% of that.
The reason I included this was that in the last election, Kerry had trouble keeping blue states and had trouble winning the red states. At this point, Obama doesn't have as big of problem with this. He doesn't need to spend quite as many resources on keeping blue states blue and can use them elsewhere, and has shown more of a success in being competitive in some red states. For Obama, the higher the percentage of red states compared to EV needed shows more room to work with to win the election and more states that McCain has to work to defend.
It should be noted too that the blue states Kerry was looking to keep blue was 268 electoral votes in 2000. The total electoral value of the states Gore won went down and the red states Bush won went up in value. I think this was due to reallocating the EV per state by updated population estimates or the census. The 268 was only worth 260 in 2004. Iowa & New Mexico were blue and New Hampshire was red.
More red states that are toss-ups and less blue states that are toss-ups makes Obama's chance's greater to win.
Base states are Solid/Likely states. No Toss-up states mean all states are solid. When Leaners aren't included with Base states, they are included with toss-ups.
Sources:
Rasmussen: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update
RealClearPolitics: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
RealClearPolitics - no toss-ups: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
MSNBC: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/ (click on the August audio play button for the Oct. projection Todd made)
FiveThirtyEight: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Zogby: http://www.zogby.com/50state/
Rasmussen 2004 Election: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/electoral_college_projections
Numbers not shown on these sites: Calculator
