SurveyUSA track record
SurveyUSA
California
Clinton 52%, Obama 42%
Actual vote
Clinton 52%, Obama 42%
C 0, O 0
South Carolina
Obama 43%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 24%
Actual vote
Obama 55%, Clinton 27%, Edwards 18%
O +12, C -3, E -6
Oklahoma
Clinton 54%, Obama 27%
Actual vote
Clinton 55%, Obama 31%
C +1, O +4
Missouri
Clinton 54%, Obama 43%
Actual vote
Obama 49%, Clinton 48%
O +6, C -6
Illinois
Obama 66%, Clinton 30%
Actual vote
Obama 65%, Clinton 33%
O -1, C +3
Alabama
Obama 49%, Clinton 47%
Actual vote
Obama 56%, Clinton 42%
O +7, C -5
New York
Clinton 56%, Obama 38%
Actual vote
Clinton 57%, Obama 40%
O +2, C +1
Virginia
Obama 60%, Clinton 38%
Actual vote
Obama 64%, Clinton 35%
O +4, C -3
Maryland
Obama 55%, Clinton 32%
Actual vote
Obama 60%, Clinton 37%
O +5, C +5
Massachusetts
Clinton 56%, Obama 39%
Actual vote
Clinton 56%, Obama 41%
O +2, C 0
Connecticut
Obama 48%, Clinton 46%
Actual vote
Obama 51%, Clinton 47%
O +3, C +1
New Jersey
Clinton 52%, Obama 41%
Actual vote
Clinton 54%, Obama 44%
O +3, C +2
Ohio
Clinton 54%, Obama 44%
Actual vote
Clinton 54%, Obama 44%
O 0, C 0
Texas
Obama 49%, Clinton 48%
Actual vote
Clinton 51%, Obama 47%
O -2, C +3
I looked around and tabulated all the polls for
primaries (only) that SurveyUSA did and also the final results and compared
them.
In the big states of Ohio and California, SurveyUSA
was dead accurate with the percentages (and winners of course). In the big state of Texas, they
actually were wrong about the winner as well as in Missouri.
Of all the states listed, SurveyUSA had
underestimated Obama's election showing 10 times, overestimated 2 times, and
were right 2 times. Underestimation: 2-12%, average of 4.8%.
Overestimation: 1-2%, average of 1.5%.
Of all the states listed, SurveyUSA had
underestimated Clinton's election showing7 times, overestimated4
times, and were right3 times. Underestimation: 1-5%, average of
2.29%. Overestimation: 3-6%, average of 4.25%.
California
Clinton 52%, Obama 42%
Actual vote
Clinton 52%, Obama 42%
C 0, O 0
South Carolina
Obama 43%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 24%
Actual vote
Obama 55%, Clinton 27%, Edwards 18%
O +12, C -3, E -6
Oklahoma
Clinton 54%, Obama 27%
Actual vote
Clinton 55%, Obama 31%
C +1, O +4
Missouri
Clinton 54%, Obama 43%
Actual vote
Obama 49%, Clinton 48%
O +6, C -6
Illinois
Obama 66%, Clinton 30%
Actual vote
Obama 65%, Clinton 33%
O -1, C +3
Alabama
Obama 49%, Clinton 47%
Actual vote
Obama 56%, Clinton 42%
O +7, C -5
New York
Clinton 56%, Obama 38%
Actual vote
Clinton 57%, Obama 40%
O +2, C +1
Virginia
Obama 60%, Clinton 38%
Actual vote
Obama 64%, Clinton 35%
O +4, C -3
Maryland
Obama 55%, Clinton 32%
Actual vote
Obama 60%, Clinton 37%
O +5, C +5
Massachusetts
Clinton 56%, Obama 39%
Actual vote
Clinton 56%, Obama 41%
O +2, C 0
Connecticut
Obama 48%, Clinton 46%
Actual vote
Obama 51%, Clinton 47%
O +3, C +1
New Jersey
Clinton 52%, Obama 41%
Actual vote
Clinton 54%, Obama 44%
O +3, C +2
Ohio
Clinton 54%, Obama 44%
Actual vote
Clinton 54%, Obama 44%
O 0, C 0
Texas
Obama 49%, Clinton 48%
Actual vote
Clinton 51%, Obama 47%
O -2, C +3
I looked around and tabulated all the polls for
primaries (only) that SurveyUSA did and also the final results and compared
them.
In the big states of Ohio and California, SurveyUSA
was dead accurate with the percentages (and winners of course). In the big state of Texas, they
actually were wrong about the winner as well as in Missouri.
Of all the states listed, SurveyUSA had
underestimated Obama's election showing 10 times, overestimated 2 times, and
were right 2 times. Underestimation: 2-12%, average of 4.8%.
Overestimation: 1-2%, average of 1.5%.
Of all the states listed, SurveyUSA had
underestimated Clinton's election showing7 times, overestimated4
times, and were right3 times. Underestimation: 1-5%, average of
2.29%. Overestimation: 3-6%, average of 4.25%.




