laurila's Blog | consequences of war »

Unrequested advices


Yes, I know.

My words do not count.

I'm a citizen of a country that resisted joining the Coalition of the Willing. On the other hand, I work in a country that joined. But even if I were a voter in the United States, I realize that my advices would be totally out of the loop.

Anyway, let me state my own humble opinions:

  • As long as the invasion forces remain present, they will be considered at least partially responsible for the security, or the lack of security, in the land.
  • Seen from an American perspective, it's crucially important that everything is done to avoid creating a Dolchstoßlegende like after the Vietnam War. Foreign policies is the responsibility of the White House. The Congress better give the Commander-in-Chief what he points at, and concentrates on oversight - not obstructing.
  • Remaining in the area will be very tempting for this U.S. administration - and likely so for the next one too. To discuss total withdrawal is thus a dead end.
  • The Congress' need to investigate the road to this disaster must be kept separated from America's (and, indeed, the World's) need to see the Iraqi adventure get the smothest possible ending.
  • The idea of training Iraqi police and army forces was probably not very intelligent to start with, but by now, we clearly see that this is a tactics that doesn't work.
  • Iraq is fractioned, and the fractioning may well continue further. The fractioning began, if not before, with the U.S.-instigated Shiite uprising and the No-fly zones that created a semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan.
  • With regard to what to do in Iraq, it can be argued that plenty of mistakes were done by the occupation authorities, but it's rather irrelevant to discuss that today. Today, the relevant issue must be, do we, or do we not, care for the civilians who suffer in the ongoing Civil War, for which the Coallition bears more blame than anyone else?
  • Also if we do not care at all about the civilans' plight, we might wish the situation to get calmed down in order to avoid adverse effects outside of Iraq. Hence I disagree with the argument that "we" must step back and let the Civil War be concluded by the warring parties.
  • Prolonged, and/or intensified, sectarian terror and ethnic cleansing will increase the temptation for neighboring nations to engage volountaries or regulary troops in the Civil War.
  • Involving the neighboring governments in diplomatic agreements aiming at stabilizing the situation would be an ideal, although it is not very likely that the U.S. government would be able to contribute to this before 2009.
  • Involvment of the neighboring countries without diplomatic agreements may be impossible to avoid, but in my opinion this ought to have the highest priority, since such involvment would open the gates to widening and escalation of the war, arousing the feelings of the Arab street and further pitting the Muslim World against the Christian West.
  • Relocating most of the Coallition troops to Iraqi Kurdistan may fit both the needs of the Kurds and of the Americans. The Kurds need allies and protectors against predatory neighbors, and such de-facto protection would give the U.S. some leverage to mitigate Turkish fears for attacks over the border.
  • In Iraq, even the Bush-administration ought to be able to recognize the locally powerful militias, at many places different from town to town, and in larger cities even from district to district. These militias are in fact the legitimate power on which (local) government resides. The notion of a "Iraqi Army" ought to be forgotten, since it distorts the perception of the reality on the ground.
  • By recognizing, acknowledging and respecting the local powers, the occupation power knows whom to start talking to.
  • Regardless of if the civilians' plight or the fear for spread is the driving force, the sectarian terror against civilians with the wrong ancestry must be, if not ended, at least minimized.
  • The ethnic cleansing is on-going, irreversible and unavoidable. Better to contribute to an orderly relocation of people of the wrong faith or ethnicity than to let them be victims of terrorizing torture and assassinations.
  • Finding new places to live will not be easy for the refugees of this ethnic cleansing, but U.S. economic wealth could here maybe come to good use?

6 Comments

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Mark Shields refers to it as the "Coalition of the Bribed and Coerced".

Tom

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Sure, the Bush Administration will stop the ethnic violence, protect all Iraqi minorities, disband the Iraqi army, and bring the Iranians and Syrians into the solution.

They will do this by renting a Persian flying carpet in Tehran on the Tooth Fairy's birthday. Then Dick Cheney will join Ahmadinejad and Al-Assad in flying over Baghdad and sprinkling Be Nice Pixy Dust over those nasty Suunis, Shi'ites, and Kurds. The administration will then serve magic tea and yummy unicorn cookies, and we'll all have a nice laugh about all the silly mistakes we have made over the past 4 years.

Won't it just be swell!

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Also if we do not care at all about the civilans' plight, we might wish the situation to get calmed down in order to avoid adverse effects outside of Iraq.

The question is not only if we wish, but if "we" do anything, or if our policy becomes inaction and leaving the scene while the fire intensifies.

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You make excellent points. What it boils down to from the American perspective is that, yes, we broke it, but unfortunately we don't seem to have what it takes to fix the damage, either in blood or treasure.

Our President's experiment in nation building may be a noble failure or a diabolical exercise in hubris, maybe both, depending on your POV.

Will future American generations learn from the mistakes and failures of our day? On past evidence, no.

Civilizations all have an arc. Ours is beginning to show some cracks around the edge.

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off-topic to laurila:

I have read your bio, and am very happy you have decided to participate more here lately, as I have for one have long wished there were more voices from overseas on this forum, and I know a few others have too. Please keep doing it, I look forward to your offerings now.

It's also been my experience in the past that some people for whom English is not their native language like to participate in English-speaking forums partly because it helps them become more fluent. So don't take the following the wrong way as in most cases I don't like excessive grammar police: Your title would be more correct and fluent vernacular like this: "Offering advice to a wall." "Advices" is never correct, it should be "advice." We usually "give" or "offer" advice--saying "speak advice" sounds sort of like what a 17th-century Pilgrim might say. And it's just a minor point of idiomatic American English that the more common phrase is "it's like trying to talk to a wall" rather than "trying to talk to the wall." Your content is fabulous and thought-provoking, and it's a shame some might not look at it because of the title.

Cheers.

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Thank you!

The headline was the last thing I thought of, unfortunately, and when I had to find one, that was made in haste. Now I've changed it.

I have a (sort of professional) interest to follow domestic debates in a couple of countries, not the least on matters of foreign policy, and the United States most certainly is one of the more important. I do, however, not always have time to read at internet sites like this frequently enough to be a participant.

With regard to languages, I've spent half a year in the U.S., and three years in a school were the language of instruction was mixed American Spanish/American English. Before that, I was taught British English for three years in Finland.

My ex-patriat background makes me a bad orator. Regardless of which language I chose, it is never idiomatic and always antiquated and at least a tad too much influenced by text book prose and other languages. In a way, this is particularly embarrassing in my mothertounge, but I've got used to it.

/Tuomas

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laurila

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