It's Not Over Until the Fat Lady Sings
I'm starting to feel like I'm in a medieval play watching soothsayers and witches; psychics and fortune tellers.
Did you know Barack Obama won the election six days from now? Neither did I until I saw the headline on the New Mexico Sun News declaring "Obama Wins!" CNN's Political Ticker followed the story on the Sun News' ability to see into the future. At first I chuckled a little bit when I saw the headline and read their defense of the article claiming that, "When it comes to calling the winner of a presidential election, everyone wants to be first. The New Mexico Sun News hereby claims that achievement."
As funny and sarcastic as the article may be, to me at least, that article is bullshit. It is the media's responsibility is to report the news--the facts--not to predict the future.
As much as I would love for Barack Obama to win November 4th, it isn't November 4th yet. Nobody has won and honestly, anything could happen in the last few days of the election.
Even MSNBC today on Morning Joe was questioning what happened to John McCain--Barack's probably going to win by six or seven percentage points--how did McCain dig himself into this hole? Mort Zuckerman Editor-in-chief of US News & World Report said, "The economy dug that hole for him."
This could all be true. Perhaps the economy will the reason for McCain's loss. Perhaps Barack Obama will win by six or seven percentage points. The thing is, however, he hasn't won yet and it's not the news' job to determine or predict that he has.
What worries me about all of this is, what if due to the reporters turned soothsayers continually predicting Obama's win, Obama voters don't feel as if they have to vote? What if they think the election is in the bag?
In response to my last blog on
reporting one commentator wrote, "A friend of mine in
They have no right to try and look into the future. The election hasn't happened yet, so don't tell me who won.
Don't be paranoid. What blue states do you expect McCain to flip? Are you serious about entertaining the possibility that McCain will hold on all or most of the following states won by Bush?:VA, CO, NM, NV, Iowa, Florida, OH, Missouri.
October 29, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well I'd put money on McCain winning Ohio (voter suppression and the conservative & racist element) and he's ahead in Missouri.
Florida's interesting. I heard one pundit saying yesterday that McCain needs 90% of the Cuban vote and he's only getting 60% in the polls: but I'd have thought this Khalidi controversy could well lose Obama too many Jewish votes.
Basically I think anyone banking on Obama winning this election is kidding themselves: voter suppression and Republican hacking are the stuff of my nightmares.
I won't believe in (as opposed to hope for) an Obama victory until it's declared on election night.
(I also think Obama dug himself an utterly gratuitous hole with his spreading the wealth around meme. It gave McCain something to focus on where he had been all over the map.)
October 29, 2008 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
In Virginia, Obama has a 7.6 lead (poll average). and Iowa is a lock. Virginia and Iowa alone are enough to win the election, and that's if we assume that Obama won't win Colorado, NM or Nevada. But you know that Obama will win AT LEAST one of those western states, and likely all of them.
October 29, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dewey/Truman 1948
Overconfidence kills.
October 29, 2008 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink