From Prof. Lynn Stoudt, UCLA School of Law:
Why re-regulating derivatives can prevent another disaster
When credit markets froze
up in the fall of 2008, many economists pronounced the crisis both
inexplicable and unforeseeable. That's because they were economists,
not lawyers.
Lawyers who specialize in financial regulation, and especially the
small cadre who specialize in derivatives regulation, understood what
went wrong. (Some even predicted it.) [1]
That's because the roots of the catastrophe lay not in changes in the
markets, but changes in the law. Perhaps the most important of those
changes was the U.S. Congress's decision to deregulate financial
derivatives with the Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA) of 2000.
It was the deregulation of financial derivatives that brought the
banking system to its knees. The leading cause of the credit crisis was
widespread uncertainty over insurance giant AIG's losses speculating in
credit default swaps (CDS), a kind of derivative bet that particular
issuers won't default on their bond obligations. Because AIG was part
of an enormous and poorly-understood web of CDS bets and counter-bets
among the world's largest banks, investment funds, and insurance
companies, when AIG collapsed, many of these firms worried they too
might soon be bankrupt. Only a massive $180 billion government-funded
bailout of AIG prevented the system from imploding.
This could have been avoided if we had not deregulated financial derivatives.
Derivatives "De"regulation?
Wait a minute, some readers might say. What do you mean,
"de"regulated derivatives? Aren't derivatives new financial products
that have never been regulated?
Well, no. Derivatives have a long history that offers four basic
lessons. First, derivatives contracts have been used for centuries,
possibly millennia. Second, healthy economies regulate derivatives
markets. Third, derivatives are regulated because while derivatives can
be useful for hedging, they are also ideal instruments for speculation.
Derivatives speculation in turn is linked with a variety of economic
ills--including increased systemic risk when derivatives speculators go
bust. Fourth, derivatives traditionally are regulated not through
heavy-handed bans on trading, but through common-law contract rules
that protect and enforce derivatives that are used for hedging
purposes, while declaring purely speculative derivative contracts to be
legally unenforceable wagers.
A Brief History of Derivatives Regulation
Just as derivatives have been around for centuries, so has
derivatives regulation. In the U.S. and U.K., derivatives were
regulated primarily by a common-law rule known as the "rule against
difference contracts."
The rule against difference contracts did not stop you from wagering
on anything you liked: sporting contests, wheat prices, interest rates.
But if you wanted to go to a court to have your wager enforced, you had
to demonstrate to a judge's satisfaction that at least one of the
parties to the wager had a real economic interest in the underlying and
was using the derivative contract to hedge against a risk to that
interest.
Because, of course, wagers can be used to hedge against risk. For
example, if you own a corporate bond and you are worried the issuer
might default, you can reduce your risk by entering a CDS contract,
essentially betting against the issuer's creditworthiness. If the bond
decreases in value, the CDS will increase in value. Similarly, if you
own a $500,000 home, you can hedge against the risk your home will burn
down by making a bet with an insurance company that will pay off
$500,000 if the home actually burns. (Most of us call these wagers
"homeowner's insurance," although a typical Wall Street derivatives
dealer might label them "home value swaps.") Using derivatives this way
is truly hedging, and it serves a useful social purpose by reducing
risk.
But as judges have recognized for centuries, at least until recently,
derivative bets are also ideally suited for pure speculation.
Speculation is the attempt to profit not from producing something, or
even from providing investment funds to someone else who is producing
something, but from predicting the future better than others predict
it. [4]
A speculator might, for example, try to make money predicting wildfires
by buying home insurance on houses in Southern California without
actually buying the houses themselves. Similarly, a speculator might
hope to make money betting on a company's fortunes by buying CDS on the
company's bonds without buying the bonds themselves. Unlike hedging,
which reduces risk, speculation increases a speculator's risk in the
much same way that betting at the track increases a gambler's risk.
Highly-speculative markets are also historically associated with asset
price bubbles, reduced returns, price manipulation schemes, and other
economic ills.
Common-law judges accordingly viewed derivatives speculation with
suspicion. Under the rule against difference contracts and its sister
doctrine in insurance law (the requirement of "insurable interest"),
derivative contracts that couldn't be proved to hedge an economic
interest in the underlying were deemed nothing more than legally
unenforceable wagers.
This didn't mean derivatives couldn't be used to speculate. But the
rule against difference contracts forced speculators to think about how
they could make sure their fellow gamblers paid their bets. The answer
was for the speculators to set up private exchanges with membership
requirements, margin requirements, netting requirements, and a host of
other rules designed to make sure that, despite the legal invalidity of
speculative derivatives contracts, speculating traders would make good
on their contract promises. In the process, the exchanges kept
derivatives speculation in check and under controlled conditions.
Eventually, the control was increased when government regulators like
the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Securities
Exchange Commission (SEC) were empowered to oversee trading on
particular exchanges. Meanwhile, off the exchanges, the rule against
difference contracts kept "over the counter" speculation in derivatives
in check.
At least, it kept speculation in check until the rule was dismantled.
The dismantling process began when the United Kingdom passed its
Financial Services Act of 1986, "modernizing" the UK's financial laws
by eliminating the old rule against difference contracts and making all
financial derivatives, whether used for hedging or for speculation,
legally enforceable. US regulators, worried that Wall Street banks
might lose out on a lucrative new market, followed suit in the 1990s by
creating ad hoc regulatory exemptions for particular types of financial
derivatives like currency forward contracts and interest rate swaps.
Soon the US also embraced wholesale deregulation with the passage of
the CFMA in 2000. The CFMA not only declared financial derivatives
exempt from CFTC or SEC oversight, it also declared all financial
derivatives legally enforceable. The CFMA thus eliminated, in one fell
swoop, a legal constraint on derivatives speculation that dated back
not just decades, but centuries. It was this change in the law--not some
flash of genius on Wall Street--that created today's $600 trillion
financial derivatives market.
for the entire blog post:
http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/corpgov/2009/07/21/how-deregulating-derivatives-led-to-disaster/#more-2596