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False Liberal Assumptions in the Auto Industry 'Narrative.'


I follow the auto industry pretty closely, being both a fan and a critic (my book "Horsepower War" is a collection of essays, some of which are critical about Detroit) of American cars. After reading Tom Friedman's "How to Fix a Flat" column in the NY Times Thursday, I had to get something off of my chest - something that's really been bothering me about the two part 'liberal' critique of Detroit.

 

ONE: "GM-has-feet-of-clay-and-didn't-make-the small-cars-everyone-wanted."

 

The first problem is that this story is nearly forty years old now - and even forty years ago, it wasn't strictly true. In fact, it was in late 1968 that GM, worried about increasing foreign competition, announced their "XP 887" project - the car that would become the sub-compact Chevrolet Vega of 1971. The Vega was a bad car, but it did actually sell decently for a while. The problem was, as it is now with cheap small cars -  it just didn't make money.

 

GM instituted a wholesale downsizing of its fleet from 1977 to 1989. Yet in the 1989-1991 period, Honda created its luxury "Acura" division Nissan created the "Infiniti" luxury division and Toyota created the prestige "Lexus" line. Ironically, these more powerful, bigger cars filled a void in the market GM had abandoned in order to meet CAFE rules. And during the 1980's, as GM cars were shrinking, Toyotas Hondas and Nissans were getting bigger and bigger.

 

So already, by 1990 the "GM has feet of clay and doesn't make small cars people want" narrative was already defunct. Now, eighteen years after that, Toyota's product lineup in the US pretty much mirrors GMs - mostly SUVs - and the SUVs they make now tower over their old "LandCruisers" of the '70's.

 

The second part of the problem is the liberal assumption that "Detroit is not profitable because it doesn't make small, cheap cars that everyone wanted." This prescription is simply a concept at war with itself. Would liberals suggest to Mercedes or BMW that their problem is that they "don't make the small cheap cars everyone wants" (?)

 

In fact, a Mercedes subsidiary does make a car that "Jesus would drive," - the "SMART." If you've been to Europe recently you notice the streets teeming with them, and now the phone booth shaped, two passenger cars are popping up all over big US cities like New York and Chicago. Here's the problem with the SMART though: despite its popularity, it has never made money.

 

Mercedes makes money not by packaging a set of commodities like steel, rubber and glass in the most efficient and optimized way. They make money on prestige. People don't buy BMWs to maximize their transportation utility either. The profit margin comes in when BMW is delivering roughly the same amount of steel, rubber and glass, but people pay more for it than they would for the same amount of steel and rubber with, say a Pontiac label on it.

 

 

By the way, BMW and Mercedes both regularly choose to pay 'gas guzzler' fines to the NHTSA rather than conform to the CAFE corporate gas mileage requirement. The cars are so expensive to begin with that the extra $2000 or so they tack onto the sticker is barely noticed by their prosperous buyers. Where's the outrage about that Tom?  

 

Lately auto commenters of all stripes have been posing the question of why GM is so different than healthier companies - but the thing is they're not really that different. GM's fortunes in Europe and China are significantly better than in North America. In fact TATA motors, most recently in the news for its NANO people's car, recently purchased Jaguar from Ford. Why? Because they think the Jaguar name will allow them to sell expensive luxury cars no one would have taken seriously with a TATA nameplate.

 

Tata knows it: the prestige market is where the money is. Similarly, other 'people's cars' makers like Hyundai, once ridiculed for its econo-boxes, is launching a new luxury car with a 370hp V8 engine and $45K+ pricetag - because that's where the money is. Even the NANO is an attempt to get people to move out of cheap motorcycles and into a more expensive car.

 

So the bottom line is that if Americans are going to take an ownership stake in GM and also demand it be profitable, the first priority of this new "People's Car Company" should be to shore up Cadillac with a $75,000 'flagship' prestige car that could make the kind of profit margin Mercedes gets from the S Class or BMW gets from their Seven series.

 

There is a powerful but unspoken assumption that the domestic makers should be shouldering the role of some kind of People's National Transportation Collective, but these assumptions don't apply to luxury makers ('limousine liberal' anyone?), or even to the companies exploiting "right to work" anti-labor states where liberally-loved Honda and Toyota work their magic.

 

Some of that false "collective" assumption can be traced to GM's P.R. efforts. For decades they've paraded various 'responsible' cars at auto shows. In 1990 they were showing a super sedan that got 70mpg. Then in the 1990's under Clinton/Gore there was the "Project for a New Generation of Vehicles." It was a public private partnership that was supposed to lead to 80mpg cars. When the political winds shifted in 2001, the project was tossed in the garbage by the Bush administration.

 

In 2008, we have the Chevy "Volt." It's an 'economy car' that will cost $40,000 to build at current estimates. But its real mission has already been accomplished - Chevy got some sweet liberal ink in a few Tom Freidman columns. That was what the Volt and its many GM 'idea car' predecessors have always been about - good press. They're a fig leaf meant to cover ugly SUV genitalia. 

 

Before liberals make their car industry prescriptions, at least they need to join the "reality based" community in their basic assumptions.

Liberal critiques are wrapped up in two super-sized unacknowledged assumptions:

 

1. "GM should make cheap small cars - the cars 'people' want"

2. "Companies lose money on big expensive 'guzzlers' (the cars 'people' don't want)."

 

Literally all of automotive history suggests otherwise.

  

These are demonstrably false - and not just for GM either. Even in Europe, rich people pay a huge premium for big Mercedes and BMWs. It's just that working class consumers buy small(er) cheap(er) cars because that's all they can afford.

 

If liberals are supposed to be the masters of nuance as opposed to those Manichean ol' conservatives, it's time to acknowledge that our simple minded story about the US car industry stopped being true twenty years ago, and that our assumption about the pious, thrifty US auto consumer is probably one part wishful thinking and nine parts denial. Maybe US consumers really are obsessed with prestige and luxury - maybe they are really 'shallow' and 'vain' and 'conformist' and try to buy the biggest most prestigious car they can possibly afford.

 

Forcing GM to be a "good" automaker who makes $40,000 economy cars that get 70mpg, while allowing Mercedes and BMW to be "bad" (even blowing off CAFE, our only real attempt at increasing auto efficiency) - will only make Mercedes and BMW even more profitable and speed GM's demise.

 

"What is to be done, then?"

 

The problem with American liberals is their American-ness. We want to offer painless 'can-do' solutions that deny the simplest truth there is: We can't have everything. We can't have cheap fuel then expect everyone to conserve it. We can't expect domestic carmakers to enforce our view of consumer piety while the "shallow" vanity obsessed consumer flocks to luxury brands. 

 

I don't want to see GM or Chrysler die - maybe for sentimental, nostalgic reasons I can't really rationalize. It's probably best to see them through this tough period just to avoid a whirling vortex of unemployment and recession. But the thing NOT to do is saddle these makers with 'pious' conditions that will make them go broke. We might be able to make GM "The National People's Transportation Collective" and make cheap economy cars, and we might be able to get GM in the black again - by making expensive prestige cars, but I would humbly suggest that we can't have it both ways.  


7 Comments

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People have wanted anything but small cars for the 11 years I have lived in this neck of the redneck woods. Hummers, Suvs, pigups,and big sedans are what you see here, although less so since fuel prices skyrocketed. People started leaving the Hummers at home. American manufacturers were making what people were buying.

BTW, take a look at the well placed ad under your blog.

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nowadays automakers are dealing with alternatives to fuel-dependent cars (performance auto parts) converting them to green ones. we're living on interesting times. Say YES for green cars!

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Good points. I am also amused by the "what people want" misinfo.

The American companies did fine against the imports until those began to be seen, mostly accurately, as better made. In some cases, it was simply that they were better equipped, like when Honda learned it was cheaper to build all the cars with FM radios instead of the Detroit-style endless options.

But it is hard to avoid the poor comparison between a Chevy Impala and a Toyota Camry. The latter feels better, runs better, fits better. I am very fond of my Ford Focus, a successful international model, and it drives great. But the parts are shit, and overpriced.

The managers at GM are not heroes, but the organization of design engineers is stupid, too. You get the rear-brake department which never talked to the front-brake guys, (as my GE factory-manager neighbor told me).

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I am in favor of bigger and bolder CAFE standards that force Mercedes and BMW and everybody else to stop making gas guzzlers, no matter how well they sell.

I am in favor of providing national health insurance to cut the Big Three's labor costs (and incidentally saving hundreds of billions of American dollars and tens of thousands of American lives, but I digress)

I am in favor of the Big Three learning to make cars that don't fall apart much more quickly than their rivals' cars do. Because ultimately that's what cost them the most. Not that their cars are gas guzzlers, it's that they're lemons.

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Tiggers:

I agree there. I think they'd be better off with some kind of 'structural' change - i.e. national insurance. Much of the oft mentioned "legacy costs" and health insurance fund will be shouldered by the UAW in 2010 - that was a major concession the unions gave in 2007, but it doesn't kick in for another year.

The quality gap - according the JD Powers initial quality surveys at least - has been mostly closed.

I'm just concerned that real 'liberal thinkers' like Tom Friedman are still operating on this notion that "innovation" will lead to super thrifty cars...and...people will buy them.

He's still operating on the neo liberal foundation that says miracle "Jesus" CEOs like Steve Jobs could turn things around at GM in three months with something like an "I-Car." But a Jobs' hip I-phone would only take up a small space on the instrument panel of an automobile.

The auto is the world's most complicated consumer durable. There's just lots of complexity there and "Celebrity" CEOs are already beeing tried at Ford (where one time Boeing's miracle worker resides - except now he doesn't have Pentagon contracts, so helpful in converting water to wine) and Nardelli, the Home Depot reject is at Chrysler.

I saw gas is down to $2.40 - I'm really wondering if you retain the "consumer" model of car buying that people wont care much about gas mileage once they get beyond say 30mpg.

I think that history has shown that people really don't "choose" what pious liberals believe they should choose - a utility maximizing, sober, slow, safe, thrifty conveyance of some sort.

This soft 'n fuzzy vision of Oak Park/Evanston America just doesn't hold water (and come to think of it, lots of Mercedes even in Oak Park). Liberals need to be hard headed realists, not dreamy idealists.

As Josh has mentioned, maybe we could make a kind of "top down" or "command and control" wholesale switch-over to electric cars or something, but liberals need to let go of the sunny supposition that people will be concerend about saving that last $500 worth of gas consumption when they're buying a $40K car.

Put simply, "the market" is probably working against a radical makeover of our auto situation.

Now CAFE has been increased to 35mpg (the increase in 2007 was the first time CAFE has EVER - that's right - EVER been increased since its inception in 1975) we are at least working on the problem.

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Well to remember that there is always a range of models being bought. When fuel prices spiked, some bought efficient cars, and the big models sat, not moving. But there won't be a common ruch to tiny cars. Then again, we don't really need that.

The quality gap, if you mean the perceived, one, is not large. I have driven only American cars since 1980, and they're pretty good. But several imports are clearly just that little bit better made, so some will prefer them. GM has not tried hard enough, having gotten so fat and lazy in the halcyon years.

As to nifty, innovative cars, Steve Jobs is not the model I would choose, and that made me laugh. Most of us want a car that runs reliably and affordably, not one with a brain and built-in massage table. And as to efficiency, if we don't depend on a wasting resource, oil, and an uncertain world market prone to disruption by those pesky wars which people always find reasons to start, that is, if we have cars that you can either plug in or run on local fuel, we don't need CAFE.

When you are tapping your own stored electricity overnight, which you saved up during a sunny, windy day, you will drive a bit less wastefully. But if you have enough money and the gas is there, what's the incentive to drive the puddle-jumper tiny car? The incentive will be supply interruptions, which will happen with increasing regularity, as refiners operate closer to the bone on inventories. Another incentive is the sudden price swings, which will scare at least a few into thinking it might run away to absurd heights.

Since we can't depend on mined fuel for the long term, encouraging the changeover now is wise.

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The Tom Friedman style market liberal seems to be on the wrong side of history if Tom Wright is right, or Josh Marshall is right.

I've been worried Obama will end up being a "reset button" president.

It'll be like Carter or Clinton, where they improve things enough that GOP will be able to run a kind of Ronald Reagan campaign about how you deserve more luxuries.

Gore has recommended a tax swap, where the govt. decreases payroll taxes and increases a carbon fuels tax. So I'm wondering if a tax swap could be the real spark that ignites a switch to electric cars.

I've been opposed to a gas tax in the past - partly because most Americans really don't have an alternative to the car.

But there might be a chance to build a kind of 'strange bedfellows' coalition because...

1. The 'libertarian' auto hobby people have opposed CAFE and - at least in op/eds, and supported a gas tax as an alternative method. We're talking about hobby mags like Car and Driver and HOT ROD.

2. The switch from a progressive to a 'flat rate' tax might attract the Steve Forbes type capital conservatives.

3. Even the auto industry has at times said a gas tax might be better than the CAFE system - but then they don't support anything that takes people out of cars. Perhaps if they were set up with electric cars to sell, they would get on board.

It would behoove 'liberals' like us to somehow split the auto industry lobby away from the oil industry lobby - the two are pretty closely aligned now.

4. Neo Liberal 'market' types like Tom Friedman would love it.

5. Ecology groups would lobby hard for it.

I think it's at least worth mentioning that, while cars compose a great chunk of the economy and for some people like me can be a consuming 'hobby' - lets also remember that long commutes and gridlock rank near the top in people's complaints about urban living. We will still have the gridlock and long commutes might get even longer if everyone has a 70mpg car.

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