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Can somebody reconcile these polls?
Optimism on the public option is being fueled by a steady drumbeat of apparently good polls directly asking about the public option. According to DK/R2K, a majority of voters in Arkansas support the public option. But then what about this?
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AR_825.pdf
According to PPP, Obama's health care plan has only 29% support in Arkansas, and 60% opposition. Yes, it's over a month old and pretty much all the news since then has been good for the President, but that is a gigantic hole to get out of. You can be sure that Blanche Lincoln and her staff are looking at all the polls, including this one. I've got to wonder if she's gettable for cloture; it's obvious she voted against all the public plan amendments in the Senate Finance Committee.
You can be certain her Republican opponent will say she enabled the passage of Obamacare if she votes for cloture.
So, can anyone explain these wildly varied responses, and does anyone have any insight into Arkansas?
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AR_825.pdf
According to PPP, Obama's health care plan has only 29% support in Arkansas, and 60% opposition. Yes, it's over a month old and pretty much all the news since then has been good for the President, but that is a gigantic hole to get out of. You can be sure that Blanche Lincoln and her staff are looking at all the polls, including this one. I've got to wonder if she's gettable for cloture; it's obvious she voted against all the public plan amendments in the Senate Finance Committee.
You can be certain her Republican opponent will say she enabled the passage of Obamacare if she votes for cloture.
So, can anyone explain these wildly varied responses, and does anyone have any insight into Arkansas?
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This poll didn't ask about the public option, and also called health care reform (being crafted by legislature) "Obama's Health Care Plan". Looking the questions in their entirety they seem designed to invoke partisan responses (Who do you like better Obama vs. Limbaugh, Was Obama born in America, etc.)
But the public option is polling better than the health care plan itself in general which also likely comes in to play. Kos did one Aug 8 that had AR in favor of a public option 55 to 38, but he didn't ask about the health care plan as a whole.
My impression is the specific question they ask makes a world of difference.
October 8, 2009 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm ... thinking about it, *some* sort of health care plan is very likely to pass. If it is not popular in general and at the same time Lincoln blocks a popular component, that could also be seen as: "she killed the only decent part of a crappy bill".
October 8, 2009 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
The plain English meaning of "public option" implies that it's run by the government and open to the public. But President Obama's public option isn't open to the public. Only to people without employer based private insurance.
So it's perfectly consistent to support a public option and find Obama's plan lame.
October 8, 2009 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
In other words, those beholden to their employers for healthcare must remain in that state of dependence. It really supports the notion that healthcare has become the leash keeping unhappy employees with unreasonable employers. Because employers do not profit financially by offering healthcare, in what way do they benefit that has given them such a large stake in the issue? From their defense of keeping it an "offering" from them, it is clear they have a vested interest. Of course, this is only true of the large corporations because offering healthcare is not a practice in which small employers feel any real interest. In the end, those large employers self-insure, so they are not subject to the profit/expense of actually paying for a "policy", they pay only for the administration of benefits.
October 8, 2009 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, but I don't think that's what's going on in Arkansas. Arkansans don't oppose the plan because of inclusion/exclusion of a public option, but because it's Obama's and/or they don't want reform. Any Republican opponent of Lincoln's will try to tie her to Obama, who is very unpopular there. If she votes even for cloture, she'll have painted the target on herself.
October 8, 2009 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
She already painted a target on herself among her base. Why not just sit home if she's going to vote Republican anyway? ....and she needs every last one of them and can't get any of the 38% who oppose public option any way.
October 8, 2009 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink