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How much H1N1 flu are you seeing?


I ask this because my university (University of Missouri-St. Louis) just sent out a memo saying "We have had one case of H1N1 on our campus." I found this strange because two students in one of my classes have already told me they were diagnosed with it, and a third said she might have the flu and hasn't returned to class yet. This is out of 16 students in the class!

Now, if students don't report it to campus health services, that office won't know the real number, so no criticism of the memo. But the point is that there could be substantial under-reporting of H1N1 incidence in local areas or nationally, if cases don't get notified to the right people. So my question to TPM readers is what you're seeing on the ground.

I also have one policy question related to vaccine priorities. Although people under 24 are one of the main priority groups, university and school staffs, who are surrounded by under-24's on a daily basis, are not on the list at all, which seems strange to me. I think CDC should consider adding university and school staffs to the list.

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My daughter in Colorado Springs, CO said one private school closed last week from so many H1N1 cases, though i the end they didn't confirm all the cases as such. There are lots of military bases there, and apparently lots of cases. You could get on the springsgazette.com site and follow. (I think that's the site name.)

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I just received an update from the Public Health Office of Virginia, and they are saying that anyone with flu symptoms (fever, muscle-aches and cough) should be presumed to have H1N1 because it is too early for other types of flu. So they are not recommending testing for everyone; they recommend to health-care deliverers who have symptoms, staying home until you have been without fever and other symptoms for at least 24 hours.

Two people I know have had it, and in the hospital I am affiliated with 2 nurses in the Neonatal ICU had it. There is a person in my building who actually comes through once a day and wipes off every door handle.

I don't have the recommendations in front of me, but I had the impression that people who work with the target age groups are recommended to get the vaccine as well.

I guess everyone has heard about this sad story:
http://thinkprogress.org/2009/09/25/swineflu-boehner-constituent/

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Under-reporting is assumed by the CDC to be a given, and their national estimates are based on a high ratio of total cases to diagnosed ones. In terms of vaccination priorities, it might be worthwhile for almost all suscpetibles to be vaccinated eventually if supplies permit, but first priorities to receive a limited quantity are assigned, I believe, to younger individuals and healthcare workers. The latter can't shut down their facilities or stay home in the midst of an outbreak, whereas others who come in contact with younger individuals can temporarily reduce the extent of contact.

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Kenneth Thomas

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