So Nate makes it clear that Math is in the tank for Obama.

I think, though I'll still knock wood, that in 12 days the Voting Public will be in the tank for Obama.

So what else is jumping in here with us? Is it safe to stay in the water?

Discuss...

So the McCain brain trust, (or is it a juggernaut?) has strategically (tactically?) fallen back on a group of six core states, the defense of all of which is McCain's essential "path to 270." (This season's must have among presidential candidates.) Anyway here's the list of those states:

Ohio, Virgina, Florida, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina.

Read it again and think about those states in whatever terms you know them.

Oh and also there's this:

"One of the strategic decisions our campaign has made is to let Mr. Obama spend his resources until we got closer to the election," Strimple said. Those states, he added, "will snap back aggressively in our favor."

That surety about a snap back, which I of course read as all bravado, combined with that list of six states, also gives me a sick feeling in my abdomen, which I rationalize thus:

I am pretty sure we are about to see the overt appeal to race, (and racism,) that has been the hoped-against big earthquake along the fault lines of this race.

Clearly two new conditions in the race bring this event closer: 1) Republicans have everything/nothing to lose at this point, they let maverick crash another plane, and the decision at this point is bail or kamikaze. But also 2) McCain clearly has no other political paradigm than to obliterate an opponent. The body- and actual language of the debate and then the thing on the senate floor? He only knows how to win by destroying.

Once more, it could be so entertaining if it wasn't so damned important.

Just wanted to put a link to this where someone might see it.

After 2.5 hours of putting a 1 yr old to sleep this was as political as I wanted to get.

Anyway enjoy. Don't tell McCain if you see him, I am sure he'd be outraged.

Sorry no images here, but I wanted to show off this where it might actually get seen.

I hope it's not so mean spirited that I undermine the Obama campaign and am singularly to blame steve bartman style for BHO's collapse!

Anyhoo, after three hours getting the baby to sleep, that's about as close to political debate as I wanted to get.

W/R/T this, I think it is officially time for the charmingly reticent Senator O to make one devastating-willie horton-esque attack ad, walk into the White House and "be the change," that he can't be as an also ran. The hitline for the ad:

McCain and Palin are soft on child molesters. So much so that Palin abused the power of her office to fire a state trooper for being too tough cracking down on sex offenders. That's not country first and it's not a family value. Vote Obama/Biden. The Only Safe Choice.

---Not to mention that if one of the sex offenders she let loose got your daughter forcibly pregnant, she doesn't want you and your daughter to be able to decide what to do about it. She wants to make that decision on behalf of all of us.

---PS RIP DFW

I have to confess something, my friends. I was never as scared of John McCain as most of you are. Until today.

BWO Background I worked my ass off for Kerry in 04, as an intern, out of sheer and real worry/fear of W.  Two years later, I told my stepfather that I may work for Hillary in 08 (she was the only one then,) but might just take her paycheck and vote McCain. (He was only starting to turn sour.) It was an attempt to convince him I was more moderate than he believes. (Which I am, but it was also mostly a bluff in this particular instance.)

To yesterday I believed that McCain's turn was mostly pragmatism and that he really wouldn't be that bad a Prez, although he pales (no pun) next to Obama.

Today I feel different. My deepest heart says he can't be as bad as Bush, but what we're learning today about Palin, for whom I feel nothing but a genuine tragic sadness now, every one of these revelations alone cuts straight to the heart of McCain's judgement, any two of them should in a rational political world be fatal. From the NYT (emph. mine,):

...Perhaps more important, several Republicans said, Mr. McCain was getting advice that if he did not do something to shake up the race, his campaign would be stuck on a potentially losing trajectory.

With time running out — and as Mr. McCain discarded two safer choices, Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, as too predictable — he turned to Ms. Palin. He had his first face-to-face interview with her on Thursday and offered her the job moments later.

This is not the time for a president who in any way approves of shaking things up. Hard to think there ever would be such a time.

(Overt Groveling:)  Rec me up. I really care about this. I didn't even make any jokes!

Sean at fivethirtyeight makes a good point here about Palin, viz. that she skews the debate challenge for Biden a bit, and may even have been chosen to bait Joe into an offhand comment or two that can be turned into a pattern of dismissiveness and therefore sexism.  Joe's shown a penchant for this before and, well just read the link.

But what I wanted to say was that there can now be no better debate coach for Joe than Hillary. Rick Lazio made her when he broke himself and if she really wants to do all she can for Obama she'll prep him and spin for him at the site that night. Let it be heard.

Two thoughts:
1) Might McCain have been planning for a while to blow every international incident into a conflagration b/c his  best chance of winning is to encourage a world where Americans will feel right voting for a crusty old warhorse?

2) I am actually of the opinion that in general Obama could be getting a little sharper on the McCriticism, but if he's not going to could we at least saturate the media with some good reproducable reasons why not? I would suggest that we portray McCain as too war-ready and remind voters that Obama doesn't hit, but he hits back, and that that is the way most Americans feel when they're not being incited to fear and bloodlust by a GOP that can feel it's fingernails slipping off  the high ledge of relevency.

Mmmm... Verbosity-licious.

Anyone else starting to think that the recent anti-Obama ads are more about republican's fears than any actual Obama liabilities? I.e. that they are afraid he is a messiah of sorts, that he is becoming an uncontainable celebrity, of the sort that could not possiblty lose an election (Arnold &c.)?

In light of the well-known rovian tactic of attacking your opponent's greatest strength, might we be getting a glimpse of just how dim they believe their own prospects to be?

Rick Davis has a great little powerpoint thingy up on the McCain sight showing why they're going to win, it's full of wonderfully deceptive graphics, but fortunately they included a pause button so you can freeze them and guffaw.

Got 13 minutes and a resistance to brainwashing? Hop on over and check it out! Get some golf gear. 

I made it halfway through, then he started talking about the electoral map and the first surprise state they're gonna take is CA, so I chortled and turned it off.  But you fact checker types out there should get on it.

No mention in the first half of the real strategy, smear and fear.

1) How the hell did the DNC get screwed into having their convention first again?  Shouldn't it be our turn to go last and benefit from the post-convo bounce?

2) Could a congress that gave a damn make sure that this November's would be a fair election, in terms of access and count, in all 50 states, or is it too late?

I think HRC's claims of electability (which is not a word according to the spell check...) tacitly assume a fact that is not in evidence, viz. that John McCain strode to the convention on a red carpet with flower girls at both sides and trumpets behind.  Fact Check:

Number of primaries won by McCain: 26 or my eyesight is bad, with 2 upcoming.

Number of primaries BHO has won (by his own count,): 33

So maybe he's counting a few that I didn't for McCain, so call it at worst even.  But then factor in that McCain lost 20-ish states to basically chumps. Barack lost 20 to Hillary freakin' Clinton, heir apparent to America's throne. I think that's really a point in BHO's favor.

Interestingly enough, maybe, is that I just checked McCain's site and it's like the primaries never happened, which I guess could be a small point to him, but two weeks from now (knock wood,) no one will remember our primary either.

Most of us have seen this by now, but look what's coming down the pike:

Title Slide:  Hillary Clinton: A Bridge in Brooklyn

Slide 1: (Appropriately beflagged and logo'd:)

       Hey Buddy...C'mere a minute

          - Hillary Clinton wants to talk to you.
          - You look like a smart good-lookin' go-getter.
          - I wanna show you something. It's this way.

Slide 2:
   
       Ain't that a beauty?

          - More non-college-grads get from Manhattan to Brooklyn using this bridge than all the tunnels combined.
          - The same is true of people going from Brooklyn to Manhattan. In fact this bridge won Brklyn to Mnhtn non college-grads by 34% if you don't count 9/11 and the blackout.

Slide 3:

       All this could be yours...

          - Wouldn't a wise investor like yourself be remiss not to get a piece of this sweet, sweet, profitable foot-traffic?
          - What if I threw in a drive-thru Starbuck's at each end?
          - How much would you pay now? $2300?

Slide 4:

       Hillary Clinton is a legitimate businessperson.

-----

Still, she was great against Rick Lazio.

Coming next: HRC's 3rd PowerPoint: Quarter For the Bus

So this happened.

Relevant quote:

Where do we go from here? My understanding is that probably today, but certainly within 48 hours, about 30 super-delegates will endorse Mr Obama. That should give him further momentum.

Josh wouldn't hesitate to point out that JZ has been shaky since say November 04, but Josh is on vacation so the mice can play.

How's this for a new meme if BO wins IN and NC and HRC, fighter that she is, stays in:

If Hillary can't contrive a graceful exit from the Democratic primary, is she really the candidate to get us out of iraq/recession/bush-reduxism? (At 3 in the morning?)

So, get out there and meme it up, memesters.

Hey maybe that should be our union name and then we can go on strike when HRC gets the nom handed to her.

(Big tip of the hat to Colbert's Word, I am sure mine won't be the only version of this line floated.)