Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com has a really interesting piece today on the relative effect of including cell phone users in polling. He compares pollsters who have been including them against those that have not. There is a net 2.2 point difference in Obama's favor, and it's fairly dramatic in some places. Most interesting is the electoral college map that flashes between the two scenarios. I encourage you to take a look..

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

I am a white woman headed toward 54 years of age. I have been an Obama supporter since the 2004 convention. I was a Title 9 athlete. I was the second class of women to graduate from a previously all male college. I entered a scientific field at the time dominated by men (genetics—Rosalind Franklin—who really discovered DNA—was my heroine. She didn’t win the Nobel Prize, the men did). I am a mother and a wife, a daughter, a sister, and an aunt.  I am an immigrant and I fiercely love this country.

 I always hoped that Hillary wouldn’t enter the race because I felt that she was so divisive at a time when we didn’t need divisiveness any more and because— sorry to say this HC supporters—I always was uneasy about the fact that she got where she was because of her husband. She carpet bagged into New York and won a seat many native New Yorkers craved and deserved and she ran her Senate race and her presidential campaign on the back of her husband’s campaign machine. The whole thing always made me uncomfortable, very uncomfortable. She was cashing in on paybacks of the worst kind. Her husband strayed, she stood by him, she was owed and she should be rewarded. It never felt right. That’s too bad for her, really it is, but when it comes to the future, I’m thinking about me, and my family, and my stepson in Kabul, not Hillary’s career.

Don’t get me wrong, I think she is smart, able, and tough, and with a few exceptions, I like her policies. I admire her in many ways.

I know now that I have already lost some Hillary supporters, who have screamed sexism when they don’t realize that sexism has nothing to do with it. They cannot accept the fact that those of us who didn’t support her just didn’t like her or trust her or like her policies, not because she’s a woman. I feel strongly that I do not need to be lectured about sexism. I lived it and still do. We women still live it. I know it when I see it and Obama supporters in general did not display sexism. Maybe the media did, but I really don’t think our candidate did. Believe me, my problem with Hillary had nothing to do with sexism.

But we are where we are. For now, I am grateful for Hillary campaigning for Obama and I’m sure if he wins, she will be rewarded with whatever she feels is her best place to contribute. I see and expect great things ahead for Hillary Clinton. She has a lot to offer and I am grateful.

But then comes Sarah Palin, one of the shallowest and most cynical tools of the Republican party—the ultimate exploitation of sexism. Hillary was never a tool. Never. She was never used by the Democrats, ever. She might have assumed much based on her time as First Lady but the party never belittled her—they rallied behind her, she was the presumptive nominee until she got out campaigned.   

That is not the case for Sarah Palin, who was plucked out of nowhere and who is being used by a group of cynical old white men to manipulate and fool the American people. What the Republicans are doing with Palin is the height of sexism and I can’t believe they are getting away with it. And she easily could become President after a short period of time.

It hit me tonight as I was watching the network news while making dinner for my family, after working a 10-hour day myself, although I didn’t have to shoot any mooses (the new bar above which we women all must rise). It’s not enough to work and buy groceries anymore. Now we must shoot and dress our meat while wearing lipstick, designer glasses, sporting a beehive do, showing some cleavage, and making smarmy comments about community-oriented Americans. We need to be ambitious, sassy, cute, and athletic (although I’ve heard you can shoot a moose as easily as shoot a slow moving oak tree).

I live in Maryland, so I am in the Washington, DC media market, which also broadcasts to Northern Virginia. Even though Maryland and DC are strong Obama country, Virginia is wobbling. So we are getting hit with ads from both campaigns. There was an ad tonight from the McCain camp that alleged sexism by the Obama campaign. It was followed on the news by a clip from the Gibson suckfest with Palin where she said that Obama probably wishes he had picked Clinton (AS IF SHE IS THE EQUIVALENT OF CLINTON).  I almost threw a carving knife at the TV screen. We have a rifle in the garage but I was too lazy to retrieve it. I was enraged. I didn’t watch the Gibson/Palin American Idol show and I didn’t want to see it broadcast in clips as if it were news. It belongs on Entertainment Tonight.

Here’s the thing ladies. Rove—who now controls McCain like Rasputin controlled Czar Nicholas and Goebbels controlled Hitler (and Coulter speaks for the Necons)  thinks that women are stupid and easily manipulated. We are tools for their machine—we are more likely to vote than men—that is our only value. In their eyes, we are at best former officers in a sorority and at worst runners up in a Miss Wasilla contest.  We will vote for the cutest girl even if she’s not very nice, because we want to be her best friend. We do that knowing that she hates us. That’s how Rove and McCain see us and Palin is happy to play along.

We all wish we were Sarah, so they think, because she has it all. A sexy snowmobiling husband, complacent kids, good skin, nice legs, a great OB/GYN, fantastic health insurance, great bennies, and the ability to follow directions. What she thinks about national security, healthcare for our children, education, rape, the war, stem cell research is just silliness, right? Who cares about that shit?

So tonight, to hear John McCunt run an ad about sexism, and to then hear Sarah Palin sit in the most contrived interview of all political time implying that she is the equivalent of Hillary Clinton, or any other thinking woman in America, was mind numbing, insulting, and degrading. The absolute cynicism, manipulation, and hatred of American women that the Republican campaign machine displays is frightening.

Speak up. Fight back. Register people to vote. 

Here’s some context. I grew up in a country that sent unwed teenage mothers to live in laundries where they were mistreated and abused (sometimes beaten) by the Catholic church. That policy only stopped the year my father moved us from Ireland to London in 1968. I was 13. I am having flashbacks about this view of the world  while watching McCain and Palin. They don’t respect women…they are merely tools to be exploited. 

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Sarah Palin has a few good things to say in support of women and women’s issues, but how and when will we hear about them? When I heard that she supported a policy that charged rape victims for a DNA forensics kit needed to gather evidence against the alleged perpetrator, that was it for me. Alaska has one of the highest per capita rape rates in the country, and most of these women are Native American and Alaskan Indian women and most victims are in rural towns, like Wasilla. What the hell was her problem as a FEMALE mayor of one of those towns? Really, where is her fucking head? Little things mean a lot, and that meant a lot to me.

So, do what you can where you can to stop this madness.  Speak out, educate your friends and family, volunteer for Obama, register people to vote. 

For those who are despairing about the Palin bump, it is only that, a bump on the road. Watch this and smile.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65I0HNvTDH4

Because a few people posted repeatedly, I am reposting this. Let's just all do this until we crash the damn server or TPM comes up with some way of blocking identical posts.

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/09/mccain-quick-change-contest-ev.php

So McCain's new mantra is "change," despite the fact that the only change MCain/Palin would bring is even more radical neoconservatism toWashington. He is now a total puppet for the Rovian agenda. His obvious attempt to steal Obama's message and distance himself from the Bush/Cheney administration and Republican Congress of the past decade deserves a high-powered response. No place is better suited to develop the talking points than the TPM community.

Today, Senator Clinton said that electing McCain would be like "asking the iceberg to save the Titanic." Kudos for Mrs. Clinton for that catchy and evocative image. But all of Obama's surrogates need some zingers, so this contest is an effort to provide them with your best wit. The folksier and more regionally appropriate the better. Call your grandmum or granddad if you must to find the local equivalent of "asking the fox to guard the henhouse," or "asking Cheney to line up the shot." Or, just make up your own, but try to make it acceptable for network (choke) television.

The rules are that you must complete the following sentence:

Electing John McCain would be like________________________.

The point is to remind voters that McCain the maverick died a while ago. Don't be fooled by Oz and his promises of a new heart, or brain, or courage, because there are mere mortals behind the curtain. His only change has to been embrace the philosophy of the most right wing of his party and vote with the President 90% of the time.

Winners get the satisfaction of someone using your slogan.

Let the games begin!

Consolation prize goes to a witty slogan for MCain's "change message."

Planned Parenthood Federation of America is asking for your help in sending a message to the Republican National Convention. For a small donation you can send a condom to a delegate at the DNC.

Go here: https://secure.ga0.org/02/rnc08condoms2/nr1_rNmM1IVsS?qp_source=rnc08afe2

Maybe TPM will block this, but this is about "Accurate sex education, protecting a woman's right to choose, making sure people have access to birth control ... " issues that progressive care about and Republicans fight against.

The discussion about the Palin family's fertility issues IS OFF LIMITS as a personal matter (remember Roe v. Wade is about a woman's right to privacy). But when you become a candidate for VP (possibly quickly to become President), where you stand on these issues is paramount. Choice means choice. The Palins are lucky that their daughter has a choice. She has chosen to proceed with her pregnancy. That is not an option, or choice, for some. We need a government that protects CHOICE.

I just spent 10 days in the U.K. and Ireland (as in the Irish Republic).  Mostly I was there for work—research on neurological and related genetic disorders, mostly focused on the commonalities among bipolar illness, PTSD, stroke, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and now traumatic brain injury (TBI). TBI is the signal injury of this war, as troops survive horrific blasts because of the superior nature of their armor. The high protectiveness of their head armor allows them to survive a blast but results in their brains being shaken tremendously within their helmets after an IED (improvised explosive device).  The effects can be short-term or long-term, and many soldiers are coping with the consequences  4 and 5 years out of their release from active duty—some most likely permanently. Their loss of certain functions mimics some of the losses found with stroke and Alzheimer’s, and not every soldier experiences the same symptoms, so we are trying to understand the anatomical, physiological, and genetic factors involved, so as to find the best treatments. The brain is one complicated and mysterious organ, that’s for sure. The one thing we share with the British is soldiers who need our help.

 

I also had time to visit one of my sons, who was doing a summer semester abroad in Stratford-upon-Avon in central England. He travelled to Dublin with me and then up to some Belfast  veteran’s clinics before we headed back to London for a few days.  He had already spent 4 weeks in England as “an American abroad” and had lots of interesting pub stories to tell about his political conversations, which are woven into my comments below.

 

During my travels I engaged everyone I could about American politics. Sometimes I didn’t have to initiate the conversation—cabbies were the most excited to talk once they found out I/we were from the States.  I was amazed at how engaged the U.K. and Ireland are in this American election cycle (the Irish are proud that Obama has Irish roots!). Maybe cabbies are better informed than anyone else as they universally seemed to have followed the primary, they knew about the battles between Hillary and Obama, and they have watched McCain with some disdain and disbelief. I have to say their assessments were incredibly fair and on the mark. They thought Hillary was an impressive candidate who made an indelible mark on American politics, but they worried tremendously about Bill and the baggage he carries. They are ardent admirers of Obama and hope he will win, but worry about his foreign policy experience. I felt that they were better informed than most Americans.  They have the benefit of emotional detachment but are very involved.

 

As for others I encountered (mostly scientists and clinicians) they too were hopeful about Obama. I cannot tell you how many times I heard people say that Obama reminds them about what they love about America. Really—I ‘m not making this up. I was in the U.K. three years ago—in fact, I was in London on 7.7.05, the day their Tube was bombed. Many Londoners indirectly blamed that terrorism on us, rightly or wrongly—at that time anti-Americanism was quite strong. They still had troops in Iraq/Afghanistan and they were pissed and tired of us and Dubya’s war. They are much closer geographically to these conflicts and resent Bush’s ham-handed and cavalier handling of things. They still have damage from the Blitz on their churches and homes and don’t take war as lightly as we do. Some of these people slept in subway stations during WWII to survive. This isn’t a drill for them.

 

But this time was different. I was amazed that Europeans seem to love Americans again, based on my limited assessment. I stayed at a few places where the hotel staff were young people from Eastern Europe—the Ukraine, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Georgia—and when they knew I was from “the States” they could not stop asking me questions about Obama.  Many knew his story—that he had been born in Hawaii, that his father was from Kenya, that he was raised in Kansas. I was really amazed. Some had read his books. One older hotel staffer told me that he had read “The Veracity of Hope” in Russian! Wrong title but impressive nonetheless.

My son had an Obama button on his backpack and people, including railway and airline security staff, treated him with kindness and concern—just because of his button!  I actually think he was granted special favors—like not having to remove his shoes in airport security—because of his Obama button. Restaurant staff asked if we were for Obama—cautiously—and when we said we were they could not stop their enthusiasm. They would stand at our table and talk, talk, talk. In my 10 days there I did not encounter a SINGLE PERSON who was hoping for a McCain victory. Not one. And I tried, I really did, to find one. I asked lots of people how they felt about McCain and none were happy about the prospect.

 

So, maybe Europe needs Obama as much as we do. I have to say that after this trip I was humbled and stunned at how much public opinion had changed about “America.” I felt good about it. I tried to assuage their concerns that we would screw it up again. Interestingly, many many people said, “well, we can kind of understand 2000, even with the election problems, but you really screwed it up in 2004—HOW HOW HOW did that happen?” I had no answers for them, but they get it. They really do.

 

So, I said on a previous post that I would report back, and there it is. Anecdotal and unscientific and I’m sure the TPM turkey vultures are ready to swoop in. Go right ahead.  I was glad to get back on U.S. soil for many reasons—not the least of which is the WEAK dollar, but mostly because I just love this country so much and I was so encouraged by our reception abroad .I just wanted you all to know that we still have lots of fans. They still love us and we need to live up to their expectations. I am really excited about Obama’s trip abroad in the coming weeks, and so are they!

This weekend I head to London for several days, then to Central England, and then to Dublin. I have work to do, meeting with geneticists and neuroscientists in some of the U.K.'s and Ireland's best research facilities. We will be talking about the links between dementias, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, and even PTSD--what genes and markers are shared, near each other, or implicated in some of the common symptoms and features of each disease. But, I am going to do some Margaret Mead type research while traveling. When I am not on official business in clinics--where I will be asking about family histories and disease patterns--but rather in pubs or hotel lobbies, I am going to ask people what they think about this American election.
I already have the advantage of two perspectives. I have family in Ireland, which has a booming economy, and they are very nervous about the American economy. If we crash, they take no delight and are not far behind. During the primary they leaned Hillary, because of Bill. They thought his administration was strong on the economy, and they figured Hillary would be as well. But they liked Obama's message and his promise of a break from the American politics of the past four years.
The other perspective I get is from my oldest son, who has been a student in London this summer. He wisely placed his Obama button front and center on his backpack, and has been received with open arms by younger people in the world's most ravishing city (I love London!) He reports that college-age and younger professionals in London are captivated by Obama. They, too, are tired of racial divides, conservative politics, anti-environmentalism, and have grown up in a city and country that has seem huge immigration and cultural change in the past 20 years. They are fascinated by Obama's story and are incredulous that the country of George W. Bush nominated Obama as their Democratic candidate. They love America now as much as their parents did after WWII. Just a year ago, they despised us.
So, I head off with great excitement and hope that I will learn a lot on my travels about how the world views us. If anyone is interested I will report back. But, I would be interested if anyone else has been abroad recently, and what they have found. Please let me know about your experiences.
Until then, Slán
  

I spent the day in the lobby area of the massive Marriott on Conn. Ave, NW, DC today where the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee convened its meeting on the fate of MI and FL. I was here as a member of a Maryland Democratic Central Committee delegation, but also as a career policy analyst, specializing in health and science policy, with an emphasis on reproductive technologies and military and veterans health (I know an odd combo). I did not get a ticket to the inner chamber but watched much of the proceedings on CSPAN or MSNBC in the lobby, as most of you did. But I was able to watch what was going on in the hallways. There was a fierce and aggressive Clinton force here today. I know there were Obama supporters but they were restrained and civil. I am baffled as to why the Clinton supporters were so combative and nasty--to everyone in sight. It was extremely uncomfortable and unpleasant. But the thing that got me through the day was being able to log on to TPM and see what people were saying. I only joined the TPM community a few months ago, and I am proud and happy to have found so many smart and funny people, regardless of who their candidate is. So, this is my feeble way of saying thanks to all of you for being so smart, and so concerned, and so involved, and caring so much. It has meant a lot to me. Now, let's go slay McCain!

Just wanted TPM readers to take a moment this weekend to remember the war dead. These Americans lost their lives defending their country in too many wars—just and unjust. Many volunteered, others were drafted. Let’s remember these fathers, sons, uncles, brothers, and more recently mothers, sisters, daughters, and aunts. These numbers should remind us that our government should be damn sure before it sends its children off to war. Peace to the families of those killed in Afghanistan and Iraq.  

 
Source: U.S. Army Military History Institute, civilian fatalities not included (I hope this list converts)

War of Independence (1775-1783) 25,000
Quasi-War (1798-1800) 20
Barbary Wars (1801-1815) 35
War of 1812 (1812-1815) 20,000
1st Seminole War (1817-1818) 30
2nd Seminole War (1835-1842) 1,500
Mexican-American War (1846-1848) 13,283
3rd Seminole War (1855-1858) 26
Civil War (1861-1865) 623,026
Indian Wars (1865-1898) 919
Spanish-American War (1898) 2,446
Philippine War (1898-1902) 4,196
Boxer Rebellion (1900-1901) 37
Mexican Revolution (1914-1919) 35
Haiti Occupation (1915-1934) 146
World War 1 (1917-1918) 116,708
World War 2 (1941-1945) 407,316
Korean War (1950-1953) 36,914
Vietnam War (1964-1973) 58,169
El Salvador (1980-1992) 20
Beirut (1982-1984) 266
Persian Gulf Support (1987-1988) 39
Invasion of Grenada (1983) 19
Invasion of Panama (1989) 40
Gulf War (1991) 269
Somalia (1992-1993) 43
Bosnia 1995 12
Afghanistan (2002-2008) 482
Iraqi (2003-2008) 3,975

From the great state of Maryland:

Two MD supers for Obama

PolitickerMD reports that State Democratic Party Chairman Michael Cryor and Vice Chairwoman Lauren Dugas Glover will endorse Illinois Senator Barack Obama this afternoon.

George McGovern’s campaign was my first. I was just shy of voting age but threw myself into going door to door and electioneering at the polls. He lost but I was not deterred. I volunteered for every Democratic presidential campaign until 1992, when I was too tired as a working mother to do anything but write a check. I voted for Bill Clinton twice. I even worked on two occasions for his Administration and worked for a project that Hillary was very interested in. I thought Bill was a good President and was disappointed and hurt when his own poor judgment led to his impeachment. And, I blame him in part for Al Gore’s loss in 2000. Vice President Gore was by far the better candidate but he had a “bad boy” big brother back at home, whose reputation shadowed a campaign that ended in the biggest political fix in American history.

Thus began the descent of the Democratic Party, to which until now I have been blindly loyal. But my loyalty is linked to my patriotism. I always thought that the Democratic Party message matched my view of what constitutes love of country—concern for the greater good, sacrifice, inclusion. During the last eight painful years of the Bush Administration, my Party has not been able to get back on its feet. It ran a weak campaign in 2004 against a weak sitting President, and lost. But I voted for Senator Kerry, yes I did, although my heart wasn’t in it. Although the Democratic Party took back Congress, it has not done so in great enough numbers to get much done, and certainly not to override Bush’s veto.

And then came Barack Obama. The disenfranchised and the disinterested rose up. The disheartened, including me, were heartened. We see change with him. It’s not just rhetoric, as the anti-change agent Hillary Clinton suggests. We mean it. We want change. We want an end to the Red State/Blue State civil war. We are tired of fractious politicians. We want civility in our politics. We want bipartisan problem solving. We want our country back.

The Clintons want the White House back, whatever it takes, even if it destroys the Party that has been more than gracious to them. But they have worn out their welcome and the more they stay, the more damage they do, like rock stars smashing the hotel room furniture with their guitars.

I am supposed to be in the “Hillary demographic,” a white woman in her 50s. Well, I’m not and I resent the simpleminded categorization. I was a Title IX athlete and I know all about glass ceilings. I know how momentous it would be for America to elect its first woman President. But I also have worked with women who would step on you to raise themselves up and I sniff that in the air around Hillary. Her campaign is too much about her and entitlement—and that’s bad for the country and it’s bad for women. It’s not enough to be a woman, you have to be a fair and honest woman. And, what many women Clinton supporters won’t openly acknowledge is that what they really want is Bill back. If you’re nice to your crush’s girlfriend, maybe you can get closer to him, and maybe…..Oh, sorry, how sexist of me.

Moreover, I don’t buy the argument that this is our last chance in a long time to have a woman President. Senator Clinton has broken new ground for sure and a much better female candidate is already somewhere, working her way toward the White House.

If the Clintons proceed to bend the rules and break arms to achieve a victory, it will be the end of the Democratic Party and the death of loyalty to it. My son is a college student and reports an incredible level of enthusiasm and hope on campus in this election cycle. These young adults, our babies, are paying attention, putting down their game controllers and picking their heads up from their laptops to watch a debate or go to a rally. These children were old enough to remember Florida in 2000, got off their middle school buses dazed and afraid on 9/11, and during their formative teen years grew up in a political climate of fear mongering, acrimony, and cronyism. Until now they have been cynical, scornful, and dismissive of politics. And now, when Bill Clinton is on one of his rants, my son turns to me and says "and you liked this guy?" African Americans, who rightfully turned slowly to Obama—needing to get to know him first— see a candidate who doesn’t just want their vote, but rather wants to work with them to build a better life for their children and grandchildren.

These two demographics, so central to the future of the Democratic Party—at least the Party I used to know—will sit out the general election if Senator Clinton is the nominee by virtue of the second biggest political fix in history. They will leave the Party and perhaps never come back. I am getting there myself. I could never bring myself to vote for Senator McCain—based on his stance on the war alone.  If Clinton becomes the nominee because her husband strong arms enough super delegates or she violates her own party rules to grab the delegates from two states she has no right to, then as Ralph Nader put it, the Democrats should “pack it up and go home.” But, where is home? For many Americans, home might be that third party whose concept has been marginalized and ridiculed by such notables as Ralph Nader, Jessie Ventura, and Ross Perot. Now, that would be change—a viable third party. But instead, I will write in Obama, and I hope others do too if we face this awful prospect.

The Clintons should not depend on the Party loyalists to support them in the general election if they get there via fraud and cynicism—that’s a wild assumption and part of their sense of entitlement. My Democratic Party is bigger than the Clintons, unless it caves in to vote grabbing tactics. That’s when my Party is over.