I've seen a lot of my fellow Democrats, here and elsewhere, hoping to see Doug Hoffman win in the NY-23 election even though it would mean a Democratic candidate losing. They want our candidate to lose because of the effect it will have on who the GOP nominates for future races. I can certainly sympathize with this desire but I'm not absolutely sure it's the best idea. The questions we need to ask ourselves to decide if we want Hoffman to prevail are whether enough Republican candidates of his ilk can win general elections to make this outcome even worse than if a greater number of more moderate Republicans win and, furthermore, if having Republican moderates in office will be any better.

What do you think? Here's why I ask.

Background for those not following NY-23:

Doug Hoffman, a total right-winger, forced moderate Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava out of the NY-23 race for a US House seat and now faces our guy. If he wins it will embolden the extreme right-wing GOP faction that got him where he is (though it should be noted that there isn't much else left of the GOP anyway). They will do their best to challenge moderate Republicans like Charlie Crist in primaries all over the country, contests which they have proven themselves capable of winning, and end up nominating intensely conservative ideologues like Mark Rubio and Michelle Bachman. We know they will do this because they have said so.

I disagree with a guy like Crist on a lot of issues - and he's been tacking hard to the right as Rubio has picked up steam - but Charlie Crist is not crazy. He supported the stimulus and welcomed Obama to his state. On the whole he would have a negative effect in D.C. but I bet Democrats could at least productively work with him on some things. Conversely, Michelle Bachman is crazy. We can't work with her on anything and she will be a model for crazy right-wing candidates everywhere.

Why this may or may not be advantageous:

The assumption behind Democratic hopes for their nominations is that these candidates will be too far out of the mainstream for the electorate and they'll lose. That makes sense and I am totally down for kicking some Tea Partier ass in elections but it's also risky. What if a bunch of those GOP candidates win the generals? Yes, they are far to the right of the national electorate. Then again, the most challenging races for Democratic candidates/incumbents are in really conservative districts and states. The NY-23 seat has been in Republican hands since the civil war. If the national mood at election time has shifted even just a little against Democrats could these Bachman-like freaks win in such states and districts? I don't know but that's a scary thought.

Further questions:

If Hoffman wins and Republicans only nominate candidates like him and Bachman how many of them win? Isn't that worse, at the very least for the country even if one can find a silver lining for our party, than having a greater number of moderate Republicans win? Since the legislative and national GOP leadership has embraced the Tea Partiers maybe moderate Republicans won't make the congressional GOP's behavior any less crazy. If they do decrease the crazy, what are the numbers? How many fewer Republicans in office does it take to offset the fact that the ones that do get in are crazy as hell?

What do you think?