In "Obama Hasn't Closed the Sale," appearing in the Wall Street Journal, Karl Rove explains that the race isn't over yet, and Mr. McCain still has a clear path to victory (if he is wise enough to follow Rove's guidance). Here, in brief, are his three biggest nuggets of wisdom for Mr. McCain:

Mr. McCain appears to be making three important course corrections. First, he and Gov. Sarah Palin are sharpening their stump speeches so their sound bites come off well on TV....

Second, Mr. McCain is shaping a story line that draws on well-founded concerns about Mr. Obama's lack of record or experience. Mr. McCain is also bowing to reality and devoting most of his time to the economy....

Mr. McCain's other adjustment is his schedule. His campaign understands the dire circumstances it faces and is narrowing his travels almost exclusively to Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada. If he carries those states, while losing only Iowa and New Mexico from the GOP's 2004 total, Mr. McCain will carry 274 Electoral College votes and the White House.

Got that? By tweaking his sound bites for TV, hitting Obama hard on the "experience" issue that worked so well for Hillary, and by throwing up a white flag in every Kerry state plus Iowa and New Mexico, McCain may be able to pull off "the most impressive and improbable political comeback since Harry Truman in 1948".

Something needs to be said here about the audacity of Mr. Rove in continuing to hold himself up as a guru, bestowing sage advice to struggling adepts, despite the fact that so far the 2008 race has served as a resounding repudiation of his grotesque legacy of fear and smear politics. Somebody needs to tell Mr. Rove that he's obsolete.

Or soon will be, as we will learn early in the evening on November 4. 

The Blue Dogs are fiscally conservative and moderate Democrats, many from deep red states. In a Washington Post report today, we learn several important facts:

1. There are 49 Blue Dogs in the House, many in powerful positions.
2. Their ranks are expected to swell after the November election. 
3. According to Obama himself, the Blue Dogs will have the power to "block or clear" his legislative initiatives.
4. At the urging of Obama's transition team, headed by Clinton administration veteran John Podesta, Obama is now actively courting their support.

Repealing the Bush tax cuts? Big spending on alternative energy, education, and infrastructure? Universal healthcare? Comprehensive immigration reform? Gay civil unions or repealing DOMA? Even with a Democratic majority in the House, Barack Obama can't take for granted that he'll have the support he needs to enact his agenda.

Not only is Obama making louder noises about fiscal responsibility these days, he's probably starting to realize how difficult his situation will be. He'll be under enormous pressure from the center/right to scale back his spending and under pressure from the left/netroots to keep his promises.

I'm old enough to remember that George H. W. Bush promised "read my lips: no new taxes", but when he actually had to govern, he signed a tax increase. Bill Clinton campaigned in 1992 on a pledge to cut middle class taxes, but didn't propose one. Clinton also wanted a $30 billion tax hike on energy, but couldn't get it passed.

So I have to wonder just which campaign promises Obama is going to leave behind?

I hope Obama will continue the same brilliant instints he's shown as president as he's shown as a campaigner. For more than a year, he's shown remarkable focus in defining his campaign's messages and strategies, executing them with discipline, and not getting sidetracked by diversions. 

He's been up in the polls and down, but he hasn't made any big course changes. Even when he moved from the primary to the general campaign, his slogan shifted only from "Change You Can Believe In" (subtly digging at Hillary Clinton's negatives on honesty and character) to the "The Change You Need" (striving to focus the campaign on issues, rather than making a contrast on character). 

Instead of taking back any of his campaign promises, I hope Obama will have the strength of will to keep them. If anything, the fiscal crisis gives him an opening to argue that large hikes in government spending investments and tax cuts are necessary to avert recession.

If he plays his cards right, he can keep all his promises while portraying himself as a real fiscal conservative who is deeply concerned to minimize government borrowing. He can make a few largely symbolic gestures--for example, demanding that most of the new federal agency directors submit balanced budgets--to bolster his image. He might also want to consider proposing a Constitutional Amendment to allow a presidential line-item veto. 

Steady leadership and commitment to his principles will help him to win the support of many centrists and Republicans, and help to cement the Democratic control of the federal government. And if he can win over the Blue Dogs, he can not only win his progressive agenda, but actually move America's political center of gravity towards the left.

Cross-posted at Joe-Perez.com

Last week we learned that Barack Obama has purchased a half-hour of primetime television on at least two networks for October 29, and is negotiating for additional time. However, nobody knows how the 30 minutes will be used, except for a general sense that it will convey the campaign's "closing argument".

TPM Cafe readers who want to chime in with their own 2 cents as to what THEY think Obama should do with the time are encouraged to leave their thoughts in the comment box below or contact Obama himself.

Naturally, both serious and joking suggestions are welcome. I

Here are my own suggestions, reposted from Joe-Perez.com:

Putting on my Pundit cap:

I want to see a montage of voters -- tilted heavily towards recently undecided voters in swing states, naturally -- speaking straight to the camera and explaining how they've come around to their decision to vote for Obama/Biden. Some of the montage interviews should be filmed at campaign rallies conducted in the next few weeks, and these clips should be interspersed with excerpts from Obama's stump speeches and other memorable campaign moments. The ad should close on a pithy closing argument delivered on the stump by Obama, followed by "I'm Barack Obama, and I approve this message."

And:

Putting on my Joker cap:

Do the same video as above, but include interviews with voters who support John McCain. They should be asked pointed questions such as: "How will McCain's economic policies be different from president Bush's?" or "Do you get your health insurance from your employer? Okay. Will you be one of the 20 million Americans whose insurance will be dropped as a result of McCain's plan?" ... and then show the voters clueless, stumped, embarrassed, their tongues wagging in the wind.

Better yet, intersperse the above clips with real interviews with well-known Hollywood comedians and actors giving humorous but poignant commentary on why they're voting for Obama. Do it! McCain's "celebrity" attack ads are ancient history, and voters will remember the jokes and repeat them the next day at the office or at school. Humor is a powerful tool.