Can you stand one more post on the Unity Ticket theme? Please indulge me for just a moment...
I'm a rare breed on TPM: I strongly support Barack Obama. And I respect and admire Hillary Clinton, in contrast to many of other TPM readers who constantly villify, hate, or oppose her.
I assume it's a foregone conclusion that Obama has the nomination essentially won, and that he should be given the full latitude to select whatever vice-presidential candidate he feels is best. Assuming that Dan Quayle is not a likely candidate, I will respect his judgment whoever he chooses.
That said, I've gone back and forth on the so-called Unity Ticket (which would certainly be Obama-Clinton at this point). I started out thinking it would be a great idea. Then Hillary's attacks on Obama just got too over-the-top, and the animosity between Obama and Clinton supporters went through the roof. So I thought it would be an awful idea. Now, I'm back to thinking that Clinton should be near the top of Obama's list of vice-presidential candidates.
In this post, I'll try to succintly make the case for Obama-Clinton. And I'll challenge my fellow TPM readers, especially the most energetic Obama supporters, to say whether they will support an Obama-Clinton ticket if Obama decides to go this route.
So I'll start by sharing the opinion of one of the most vociferous Clinton haters of all time, Andrew Sullivan:
[T]he Clintons' popular vote argument is not an argument for winning the nomination. You can't change the rules in the fourth quarter. But it is an argument for the veep slot. Put this way, the dead-ender act is not so psycho. The Clintons, like it or not, do have a base in their party. They've been beaten but not destroyed. Obama has to do something about it...
This really is the first major presidential decision Obama has to make. How he handles it, and what he decides will tell us a huge amount about the kind of president he would be. My hunch is that he will try to conciliate - and that, if he's shrewd, that will be the theme of his campaign. A Clinton pick would instantly relieve the Democrats and create a demographic landslide potential for the fall. It would immediately force an entire army on the right, now making the Clintons' arguments for them, to eat their words or find themselves praising the Democrat. It would reassure some voters that Obama has a running mate with more Washington experience. It would help the women's vote."
Let me highlight this sentence:
"A Clinton pick would instantly relieve the Democrats and create a demographic landslide potential for the fall." Do you want to WIN or do you want to BE RIGHT? Do you want to create a potential LANDSLIDE or do you want to gamble on a New Electoral Strategy?
As this contest comes to a close, look at a few key facts on the ground.
(1) Clinton has secured equal or greater popular vote than Obama, and if she isn't represented on the ticket many Democratic voters could feel that Obama lacks legitimacy, or that the election was stolen.
(2) Look at the polls. Yes, they're bound to change between now and November. But look at them. Gallup shows Obama losing to McCain 47/44, but Clinton beating McCain 47/75. Rasmussen has Obama and McCain tied at 45/45 and Clinton winning 47/45. Newsweek (May 23) has Obama and McCain tied 46/46, and Clinton beating McCain 48/44.
(3) Look at the electoral maps. Several news organizations have analyzed the electoral maps, and while both Obama and Hillary have potential routes to the White House, the analyses I've seen shows Hillary has an edge. Here's analysis that shows
Obama beating McCain 266/248 with 24 tied votes; the same analyst shows
Clinton beating McCain 327/194 with 17 ties.
Salon.com's analysis shows Clinton and McCain 259/206 with 73 votes as tossups, and Obama and McCain 238/221 with 79 votes as tossups.
None of these arguments persuade me to think that Clinton should be handed the nomination by a superdelegate coup. But they do raise the possibility that an Obama/Clinton ticket could fortell a DEMOCRATIC LANDSLIDE. While there's no guarantee, at the very least it would seem to suggest that Clinton deserves to be considered highly as vice president.
The most frequently voiced criticism of this proposal goes like this:
But Obama has campaigned on "change" and "turning the page on the past" and Clinton represents the failed past, and the sort of Washington insider that needs to be left behind!To this fair argument, I would offer this rebuttal: (1) Clinton's supporters -- half the Democratic party -- has never brought into this frame. They believe Clinton, as a woman, symbolizes change. And her policies, nearly identical to Obama's, would be a radical change over the Republican alternative. (2) Clinton could pledge to uphold the same standards Obama has set for fundraising: taking no money from Washington lobbyists, etc. (3) Obama's "new politics" is about reconciliation, working across partisan lines, overcoming divisions. Accepting Clinton onto the ticket would show Obama he is serious about his message, and serious even about demanding that his zealous supporters "play nice" and avoid escalating negative rhetoric against their fellow Democrats.
So... do you want to HOLD ONTO YOUR GRUDGES, RESENTMENT, HATRED, AND SMUG SENSE OF SUPERIORITY OVER CLINTON SUPPORTERS?
Or do you want to win?
There's a second argument worth rebutting. That's the claim that Hillary has uniquely high negatives among Democratic candidates. Actually, that was true before "Bittergate" and "WrightGate" and now both Clinton and Obama have high negatives.
There's one final argument worth rebutting. That's the claim that Obama shouldn't select Hillary because he can't handle Hillary and Bill near the White House. This is the argument I find most astonishingly stupid. It assumes that Obama, once president, is not capable of handling Hillary as veep or Bill as her husband. Give the man some credit. You must really think he's a poor leader or weak administrator for you to believe that Obama would not make absolutely clear to his veep that HE is in charge, HE makes the decisions, HE expects loyalty and integrity, HE is the ultimate authority. Of course he's capable of taming Hillary or Bill. What are you so afraid of? A person is wise who keeps his friends close and his enemies closer. Hillary knows that her political future depends on her being perceived as trustworthy, valuable, and loyal vice president. And both Hillary and Bill are concerned with their historical legacy. They are manageable, and Obama is certainly up to the task.
In conclusion, I have come to realize that the Unity Ticket is worth seriously considering. As an Obama supporter, I vow to strongly support Obama's choice of running mate, and to vote for Obama/Clinton if that's his choice.
So, Obama supporters and Clinton supporters, will you make the same pledge? Or is your heart so blackened with cynicism and hatred that you would allow McCain to win by dividing the Democratic party? In short, DO YOU WANT TO WIN?