We Must Not Overreact to the Wright Controversy, But Renew Our Goal of Party Unity
Here we stand, Democrats facing two crucial recent developments. With the news that revotes in Florida and Michigan are extremely unlikely, it has become virtually impossible for Hillary Clinton to win the deleate race or the popular vote. At the same time, the Wright controversy has seriously wounded Obama. Could we have reached the point where the party has finally settled on a nominee, but that nominee is so tarnished that he is virtually unelectable in the fall?
First, consider the challenge facing Hillary Clinton. According to Slate, Clinton would need to win each remaining state by 28 percentage points to catch Obama in pledged delegates. Since Obama is actually favored to win North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, we can safely consider Clinton toast. The remaining weeks are an exercise in futility, unless we consider the Clinton strategy of winning by a "superdelegate coup" in which superdelegates overturn the will of the delegates and popular vote.
Second, consider the recent slide on the polls for Obama. He now loses by huge margins to McCain in Ohio, Missouri, and Kentucky. And in Gallup polls, Clinton has opened a significant gap on Obama (this is not the case, yet at least, in some other national polls). It may be too soon to view Obama as a less-than-electable candidate, but Obama himself is even admitting that his chances of winning have always been long. In a CNN interview, Obama said: ""In some ways this, this controversy has actually shaken me up a little bit and gotten me back into remembering that the odds of me getting elected have always been lower than some of the other conventional candidates [e.g., Hillary Clinton]".
The temptation for the Clinton campaign in the coming weeks is going to be very clear: convince the superdelegates that Obama is, indeed, unelectable, and that they should choose to place her at the top of the ticket instead. Unfortunately, such a strategy is very likely to sever the Democratic party and probably ensure a McCain victory. Obama supporters are strong in their support, and many are convinced that Clinton has unfairly attacked their candidate throughout the primaries. Now Obama supporters, including the crucial block of African-American voters, may not support Clinton if she wins in this manner.
Democrats should resist the temptation to pounce on a wounded Obama candidacy when he's down. Every candidate has ups and downs, and while this has been a bad week there will be many good weeks ahead. Polls fluctuate, and we should not allow them to control our loyalties.
Clinton's strategy of having superdelegates overturn the pledged delegate leader is a recipie for disaster. When it becomes clear (in May or June at the latest) that Obama has secured a victory in pledged delegates, Clinton will need to put the interests of a unified party above her own political ambitions. Obama can make it easier by offering her more than a token in turn for her support and concession: the vice presidency, or his backing for another job she might want such as the Senate Majority Leader or Supreme Court justice.
Recent days have made our dilemma, and our path ahead, clear. The Democratic party has selected a nominee: Barack Obama. It's time for Clinton to prepare her concession, Obama to consider what he's willing to offer Clinton as a "second prize", and for Clinton and Obama supporters to come together for the same of party unity. The sooner Democrats come together to back Obama despite his gains or losses in the polls, the sooner we can wage the sort of campaign that takes on the GOP and John McCain directly.
Our fears that Obama won't win are only likely to come true if we allow them to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The best response to our current situation is to avoid overreacting to the Wright controversy, and steer straight ahead into a fall campaign united around Obama.
First, consider the challenge facing Hillary Clinton. According to Slate, Clinton would need to win each remaining state by 28 percentage points to catch Obama in pledged delegates. Since Obama is actually favored to win North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, we can safely consider Clinton toast. The remaining weeks are an exercise in futility, unless we consider the Clinton strategy of winning by a "superdelegate coup" in which superdelegates overturn the will of the delegates and popular vote.
Second, consider the recent slide on the polls for Obama. He now loses by huge margins to McCain in Ohio, Missouri, and Kentucky. And in Gallup polls, Clinton has opened a significant gap on Obama (this is not the case, yet at least, in some other national polls). It may be too soon to view Obama as a less-than-electable candidate, but Obama himself is even admitting that his chances of winning have always been long. In a CNN interview, Obama said: ""In some ways this, this controversy has actually shaken me up a little bit and gotten me back into remembering that the odds of me getting elected have always been lower than some of the other conventional candidates [e.g., Hillary Clinton]".
The temptation for the Clinton campaign in the coming weeks is going to be very clear: convince the superdelegates that Obama is, indeed, unelectable, and that they should choose to place her at the top of the ticket instead. Unfortunately, such a strategy is very likely to sever the Democratic party and probably ensure a McCain victory. Obama supporters are strong in their support, and many are convinced that Clinton has unfairly attacked their candidate throughout the primaries. Now Obama supporters, including the crucial block of African-American voters, may not support Clinton if she wins in this manner.
Democrats should resist the temptation to pounce on a wounded Obama candidacy when he's down. Every candidate has ups and downs, and while this has been a bad week there will be many good weeks ahead. Polls fluctuate, and we should not allow them to control our loyalties.
Clinton's strategy of having superdelegates overturn the pledged delegate leader is a recipie for disaster. When it becomes clear (in May or June at the latest) that Obama has secured a victory in pledged delegates, Clinton will need to put the interests of a unified party above her own political ambitions. Obama can make it easier by offering her more than a token in turn for her support and concession: the vice presidency, or his backing for another job she might want such as the Senate Majority Leader or Supreme Court justice.
Recent days have made our dilemma, and our path ahead, clear. The Democratic party has selected a nominee: Barack Obama. It's time for Clinton to prepare her concession, Obama to consider what he's willing to offer Clinton as a "second prize", and for Clinton and Obama supporters to come together for the same of party unity. The sooner Democrats come together to back Obama despite his gains or losses in the polls, the sooner we can wage the sort of campaign that takes on the GOP and John McCain directly.
Our fears that Obama won't win are only likely to come true if we allow them to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The best response to our current situation is to avoid overreacting to the Wright controversy, and steer straight ahead into a fall campaign united around Obama.
