I disagree with Bachmann and I let her know it.
Pre-empting an October Suprise
Debate wrap up and a couple of other things.
I think Obama was the person who gained more from this debate. There
was no winner/loser. McCain did not change his downward trajectory.
McCain was aiming for his base. Obama was aiming for the undeceided
voters. They know Obama is pulling the und. voters and they can't stop
the bleeding.
Appearances matter. McCain is stilted in the same way Bush is. People
relate to that. They are empathetic to the fact that he is not smooth,
just like themselves.
I think the media is focused on McCain going in the gutter
unnecessarily. He is feeding his base with the lies. He knows we aren't
buying it. He does not care. By not going in the gutter tonight, McCain
shows the Jeckyll and Hyde of his campaign and his own personality.
When he is around his people (partisan events), he attacks without
remorse. He does that for his base. When he is in non-partisan areas,
he turns on the Maverick POW John McCain. Remember his base does not
pay attention to anyone that disagrees with them. They are getting
their news and opinion from their sources - FOX, Rush, Hannity, etc.
Ask yourself, why does he wait till tonight to tell us he has this plan
to start buying up mortgages? Same ploy as the "I know how to catch
Osama"? Both times he is negligent and desperate (did he bring this up
during the rescue negotiations?). I did the same thing when I ran for
3rd grade class president. Make a promise there is no way you can keep,
and ride the wave of excitement from it. The problem there is no wave.
The people he wants to rally aren't listening.
The "American President" has some good lines:
"We have serious problems to solve, and we need serious people to solve them. And whatever your particular problem is, I promise you, Bob Rumson is not the least bit interested in solving it. He is interested in two things and two things only: making you afraid of it and telling you who's to blame for it. That, ladies and gentlemen, is how you win elections."
John can't even win the election trying to do that.
Like Bo Burnham says, he is the "Presidon't of American't"
Finally, Ohio State researchers found some interesting information that the MSM appears to be ignoring:
"Homeowners who are struggling with mortgages for their own residences
are a relatively small part of the overall mortgage crisis, according
to results of a new nationwide study of consumer balance sheets."
"Instead, the results suggest that the biggest losses in the mortgage
crisis are not for owner-occupied homes, but for commercial real estate
loans, and loans for houses bought as investments or built on
speculation..."
http://osu.edu/news/newsitem2151
"Deep Thought" Video on Main Page - what I see
"Republican Senator John McCain blinks the most frequently of the candidates, and when doing so exposes issues he is nervous about".
The reason John McCain likes to play craps is because he would be a horrible poker player. He lets loose "tells" all the time. He shows his emotions way too easily and he also shows his discomfort and anger with things he disagrees with. He was raised in a military household and it shows. You can see him just ready to burst.
Jaw clenching, brow furrowing, licking his lips, rocking back and forth, squinting, and looking with his head but not his body. Those are the main ones. There are many more.
And then he throws in the honorable service comment? Wow. OK?
I think the reason many people relate to him is because he acts like they do. Suppressing their true feelings and pushing them way down deep. They can relate to how he feels and they are empathetic.
I get uncomfortable watching him speak. However, when he was talking today at the roundtable he looks very relaxed:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itFg0duerMs.
Now look at the deep thought video:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=videonetwork&maven_playerId=immersiveplayer&maven_referralPlaylistId=ea55e156b2b71a475a90513ed2c512a418479f4d&maven_referralObject=873527229
Same guy - different signals being sent. Which one would be elected?
Speculation in markets and the need for serious people
We as a people need to be more involved in our govt. and less involved in ourselves. This country gives much, but ask very little in return. Until our way of think is altered by a cataclysmic event or events, we will continue to go on our merry way.
It is hard for us make a decision that helps others, it is easy to make a decision that helps ourselves. We need a leader who thinks about others first and then himself.
To paraphrase from a movie:
"We've got serious problems, and we need serious people, and if you want to talk about character and readiness to lead, John, you'd better come at me with more than another story about being a maverick and 'he doesn't understand'. If you want to talk about character and American values, fine. Just tell me where and when, and I'll show up. This is a time for serious people, John, and your fifteen minutes are up.
Ohio State study: Mortgage losses on owner-occupied homes lower than assumed ..
COLUMBUS,
Ohio � Homeowners who are struggling with mortgages for their own
residences are a relatively small part of the overall mortgage crisis,
according to results of a new nationwide study of consumer balance
sheets.
The study estimates that losses on first mortgages for owner-occupied homes may range as high as $180 billion.
While
that's a large amount, it is not catastrophic, said Randall Olsen,
co-author of the study, professor of economics, and director of the
Center for Human Resource Research at Ohio State University.
Instead,
the results suggest that the biggest losses in the mortgage crisis are
not for owner-occupied homes, but for commercial real estate loans, and
loans for houses bought as investments or built on speculation, Olsen
said.
"As a group, people who have mortgages on homes they live
in have been more conservative and careful about their money than some
of the big financial institutions," Olsen said.
The results come
from the Consumer Finance Monthly, a telephone survey of randomly
selected Americans about their household balance sheets, that is
conducted by Ohio State's Center for Human Resource Research. More than
12,500 Americans have been interviewed since the CFM began in early
2005.
Olsen co-authored the new study with Lucia Dunn, a professor of economics at Ohio State.
Olsen
said the results are important because the CFM is the only data set
that has regularly and consistently looked at household balance sheets
during the recent upheaval in the nation's economy.
"These are the best numbers available about what we can expect to see in the developing housing mortgage crisis," he said.
For
the study, the researchers assumed the peak of the housing prices was
July 1, 2007. They then looked at Americans' financial situation for
two one-year periods before the peak (July 2005 through June 2006 and
July 2006 through June 2007) and for one year following (July 2007
through June 2008.)
Results showed that the percentage of
homeowners who were 60 or more days late on their home payment was 4.4
percent in 2007-08, more than double the 1.6 percent who were that late
in 2005-06.
But for this study, the researchers were most
interested in homeowners who had a loan-to-value ratio of 80 percent or
higher � meaning they had earned little equity in their home � and who
were also 60 or more days late on their house payments.
"These are the homeowners who are close to the edge and are at the highest risk of defaulting on their loans," Olsen said.
The percentage of people in that category was at 8.5 percent in 2007-08, up from 3.4 percent in 2005-06.
The
researchers assumed that all of those homes would go into foreclosure,
and that these homes would then lose a total of 60 percent of their
value.
"These assumptions probably overstate how bad things will
get, but we wanted to make sure we didn't sugarcoat the problem," Olsen
said.
Under those assumptions, there is a potential total of $90
billion in mortgage losses on borrowers in trouble during the 2007-08
period, and possibly twice that much � or $180 billion � if one uses
the higher late payment rates seen during the second quarter of 2008.
"That's
a lot of money, but it is not disastrous in itself," Olsen said. "This
suggests much of the problem we're seeing concerning risky investments
doesn't involve owner-occupied homes."
There is other evidence in the survey that suggests most Americans have weathered the financial storm to this point.
Results
showed that the average net worth of Americans was up 8.2 percent in
2007-08 compared to two years prior, in 2005-06. However, average net
worth was down 6.7 percent in 2007-08 compared to a year earlier, in
2006-07.
The Americans who have fared the worst in relative
terms economically are the wealthy. Findings showed that respondents
who were in the top 5 percent in net worth saw an 8.6 percent decline
in net worth over the past two years, Olsen said.
"You can
imagine that these wealthy households are probably the ones who are
most involved in the risky investments in real estate and elsewhere,"
Olsen said. "They are the ones who have the biggest stake in dollar
terms in bad loans."
Contact: Randall Olsen, (614) 442-7348; Olsen.6@osu.edu
Written by Jeff Grabmeier, (614) 292-8457; Grabmeier.1@osu.edu
Where we go from here?
Are you freaking kidding me?
They failed to explain to the people in their districts what this was, a movement of risk, not a bailout. People will make decisions based on what they know, not on the correct info. If Rush, Sean, or other Rep./Consv. talking heads feed the fear (like the are prone to do), they make the problem worse. This is not Main Street vs. Wall Street, it is Reality vs. Republicans. Stop worrying about getting re-elected, and start worrying about the rest of us. I could give a flip what happens to these people. They made a decision and we will have to live with the consequences of their actions.
When Jim Cramer on CNBC is saying please do the right thing, we are on a very delicate crumbling edge.
The President better get up off his lame-duck ass and take control of the situation before Boehner & Blunt does.
Lets blame the Jews (Boehner), the Democrats (Boehner and Blunt), and Wall Street (Mis-informed public).
This is RED MONDAY. The day the Red Team decided it would put it's needs in front of our country's needs. Damn you people and your selfish, needy, and short-sighted beliefs.
Hang on, it is going to be a rough ride.
Debate #1
I noticed that McCain says stuff to Cindy after the debate and with the same face as after the convention speech. He is talking through clenched teeth - I wish I could read lips. Both times he seems to be showing his tense/angry self. Obama seems more relaxed, not too relaxed. Big point - McCain would not look Obama in the eye. Big one.
Remember this, we are going to see so little of the winner after he becomes president. Based on the first debate, I am more inclined to put my chips in with Obama at this time.
Who here is in foreclosure?
This is not so much a bailout as a transfer of risk. Our govt. can handle dead risk, unlike the markets. There is a carcass in the road, mortgage securitizations and derivatives. The govt. is just clearing the road so traffic can flow freely again. No traffic = no credit. No credit = no business. I don't think many of us common folk can get our heads around the "quant" created financial system that currently is in place. There is a big pool of money and people will get very creative to get a piece of it. Whether it is an investment bank or a thief. I work at an insurance company and see it every day (I investigate fraud).




