Cheney looks ill...


Watched the video of Cheney today.  He has thinned up quite a bit.  He does not look well.  Maybe it is the lighting.

I disagree with Bachmann and I let her know it.


Just sent an e-mail to Rep. Bachmann's website to let her know I disagreed with her.  She has a right to feel that way, and I have right to tell she wrong.


Pre-empting an October Suprise


I think that Obama should start speaking soon to the possibility of an effort by AQ to attempt an attack to influence the election.  If he waits and says nothing, he will be on the defensive.  This is the time for McCain and him to release a joint statement on it.  This will take the bite out of any attack I think.  Maybe I am just stupid. 

Debate wrap up and a couple of other things.


I think Obama was the person who gained more from this debate. There was no winner/loser. McCain did not change his downward trajectory. McCain was aiming for his base. Obama was aiming for the undeceided voters. They know Obama is pulling the und. voters and they can't stop the bleeding.
Appearances matter. McCain is stilted in the same way Bush is. People relate to that. They are empathetic to the fact that he is not smooth, just like themselves.
I think the media is focused on McCain going in the gutter unnecessarily. He is feeding his base with the lies. He knows we aren't buying it. He does not care. By not going in the gutter tonight, McCain shows the Jeckyll and Hyde of his campaign and his own personality. When he is around his people (partisan events), he attacks without remorse. He does that for his base. When he is in non-partisan areas, he turns on the Maverick POW John McCain. Remember his base does not pay attention to anyone that disagrees with them. They are getting their news and opinion from their sources - FOX, Rush, Hannity, etc.
Ask yourself, why does he wait till tonight to tell us he has this plan to start buying up mortgages? Same ploy as the "I know how to catch Osama"? Both times he is negligent and desperate (did he bring this up during the rescue negotiations?). I did the same thing when I ran for 3rd grade class president. Make a promise there is no way you can keep, and ride the wave of excitement from it. The problem there is no wave. The people he wants to rally aren't listening.

The "American President" has some good lines:

"We have serious problems to solve, and we need serious people to solve them. And whatever your particular problem is, I promise you, Bob Rumson is not the least bit interested in solving it. He is interested in two things and two things only: making you afraid of it and telling you who's to blame for it. That, ladies and gentlemen, is how you win elections."

John can't even win the election trying to do that.

Like Bo Burnham says, he is the "Presidon't of American't"

Finally, Ohio State researchers found some interesting information that the MSM appears to be ignoring:
"Homeowners who are struggling with mortgages for their own residences are a relatively small part of the overall mortgage crisis, according to results of a new nationwide study of consumer balance sheets."
"Instead, the results suggest that the biggest losses in the mortgage crisis are not for owner-occupied homes, but for commercial real estate loans, and loans for houses bought as investments or built on speculation..."

http://osu.edu/news/newsitem2151


"Deep Thought" Video on Main Page - what I see


Watching John McCain react to being questioned on his integrity is very "telling".  You can see the classic signs that:
"Republican Senator John McCain blinks the most frequently of the candidates, and when doing so exposes issues he is nervous about".

The reason John McCain likes to play craps is because he would be a horrible poker player.  He lets loose "tells" all the time.  He shows his emotions way too easily and he also shows his discomfort and anger with things he disagrees with.  He was raised in a military household and it shows.  You can see him just ready to burst. 

Jaw clenching, brow furrowing, licking his lips, rocking back and forth, squinting, and looking with his head but not his body.  Those are the main ones.  There are many more.

And then he throws in the honorable service comment?  Wow.  OK?

I think the reason many people relate to him is because he acts like they do.  Suppressing their true feelings and pushing them way down deep.  They can relate to how he feels and they are empathetic. 

I get uncomfortable watching him speak.  However, when he was talking today at the roundtable he looks very relaxed:
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itFg0duerMs.

Now look at the deep thought video:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=videonetwork&maven_playerId=immersiveplayer&maven_referralPlaylistId=ea55e156b2b71a475a90513ed2c512a418479f4d&maven_referralObject=873527229


Same guy - different signals being sent.  Which one would be elected?

Speculation in markets and the need for serious people


I think we are seeing two markets that were driven to an extreme by speculation, lack of regulation or accountability - the oil market and the mortgage market.  In both cases the same thing happens - the bubble bursts.  However, in both cases someone wins big and someone loses big.  We the people have lost big in both.  The transfer of wealth from us to them is staggering.  Although you can't have the boom without a subsequent bust, it can be controlled better and the landing made softer.
We as a people need to be more involved in our govt. and less involved in ourselves.  This country gives much, but ask very little in return.  Until our way of think is altered by a cataclysmic event or events, we will continue to go on our merry way.

It is hard for us make a decision that helps others, it is easy to make a decision that helps ourselves.  We need a leader who thinks about others first and then himself.

To paraphrase from a movie:
"We've got serious problems, and we need serious people, and if you want to talk about character and readiness to lead, John, you'd better come at me with more than another story about being a maverick and 'he doesn't understand'. If you want to talk about character and American values, fine. Just tell me where and when, and I'll show up. This is a time for serious people, John, and your fifteen minutes are up.



Simple and to the point...


Men argue, nature acts.
- Voltaire.

Ohio State study: Mortgage losses on owner-occupied homes lower than assumed ..


Very interesting.

COLUMBUS, Ohio � Homeowners who are struggling with mortgages for their own residences are a relatively small part of the overall mortgage crisis, according to results of a new nationwide study of consumer balance sheets.

The study estimates that losses on first mortgages for owner-occupied homes may range as high as $180 billion.

While that's a large amount, it is not catastrophic, said Randall Olsen, co-author of the study, professor of economics, and director of the Center for Human Resource Research at Ohio State University.

Instead, the results suggest that the biggest losses in the mortgage crisis are not for owner-occupied homes, but for commercial real estate loans, and loans for houses bought as investments or built on speculation, Olsen said.

"As a group, people who have mortgages on homes they live in have been more conservative and careful about their money than some of the big financial institutions," Olsen said.

The results come from the Consumer Finance Monthly, a telephone survey of randomly selected Americans about their household balance sheets, that is conducted by Ohio State's Center for Human Resource Research. More than 12,500 Americans have been interviewed since the CFM began in early 2005.

Olsen co-authored the new study with Lucia Dunn, a professor of economics at Ohio State.

Olsen said the results are important because the CFM is the only data set that has regularly and consistently looked at household balance sheets during the recent upheaval in the nation's economy.

"These are the best numbers available about what we can expect to see in the developing housing mortgage crisis," he said.

For the study, the researchers assumed the peak of the housing prices was July 1, 2007. They then looked at Americans' financial situation for two one-year periods before the peak (July 2005 through June 2006 and July 2006 through June 2007) and for one year following (July 2007 through June 2008.)

Results showed that the percentage of homeowners who were 60 or more days late on their home payment was 4.4 percent in 2007-08, more than double the 1.6 percent who were that late in 2005-06.

But for this study, the researchers were most interested in homeowners who had a loan-to-value ratio of 80 percent or higher � meaning they had earned little equity in their home � and who were also 60 or more days late on their house payments.

"These are the homeowners who are close to the edge and are at the highest risk of defaulting on their loans," Olsen said.

The percentage of people in that category was at 8.5 percent in 2007-08, up from 3.4 percent in 2005-06.

The researchers assumed that all of those homes would go into foreclosure, and that these homes would then lose a total of 60 percent of their value.

"These assumptions probably overstate how bad things will get, but we wanted to make sure we didn't sugarcoat the problem," Olsen said.
Under those assumptions, there is a potential total of $90 billion in mortgage losses on borrowers in trouble during the 2007-08 period, and possibly twice that much � or $180 billion � if one uses the higher late payment rates seen during the second quarter of 2008.

"That's a lot of money, but it is not disastrous in itself," Olsen said. "This suggests much of the problem we're seeing concerning risky investments doesn't involve owner-occupied homes."
There is other evidence in the survey that suggests most Americans have weathered the financial storm to this point.

Results showed that the average net worth of Americans was up 8.2 percent in 2007-08 compared to two years prior, in 2005-06. However, average net worth was down 6.7 percent in 2007-08 compared to a year earlier, in 2006-07.

The Americans who have fared the worst in relative terms economically are the wealthy. Findings showed that respondents who were in the top 5 percent in net worth saw an 8.6 percent decline in net worth over the past two years, Olsen said.

"You can imagine that these wealthy households are probably the ones who are most involved in the risky investments in real estate and elsewhere," Olsen said. "They are the ones who have the biggest stake in dollar terms in bad loans."

Contact: Randall Olsen, (614) 442-7348; Olsen.6@osu.edu
Written by Jeff Grabmeier, (614) 292-8457; Grabmeier.1@osu.edu

Where we go from here?


I think the Republicans played a game of chicken with us and the world economy.  By blaming Pelosi, they show how shallow their motives truly are.  The votes changed because she got partisan? 

Are you freaking kidding me?

They failed to explain to the people in their districts what this was, a movement of risk, not a bailout.  People will make decisions based on what they know, not on the correct info.  If Rush, Sean, or other Rep./Consv. talking heads feed the fear (like the are prone to do), they make the problem worse.  This is not Main Street vs. Wall Street, it is Reality vs. Republicans.  Stop worrying about getting re-elected, and start worrying about the rest of us.  I could give a flip what happens to these people.  They made a decision and we will have to live with the consequences of their actions.

When Jim Cramer on CNBC is saying please do the right thing, we are on a very delicate crumbling edge.

The President better get up off his lame-duck ass and take control of the situation before Boehner & Blunt does.

Lets blame the Jews (Boehner), the Democrats (Boehner and Blunt), and Wall Street (Mis-informed public).

This is RED MONDAY.  The day the Red Team decided it would put it's needs in front of our country's needs.  Damn you people and your selfish, needy, and short-sighted beliefs.

Hang on, it is going to be a rough ride.

Debate #1


Nobody won this debate tonight. I think that Obama better get meaner and more critical with McCain if he wants to move voters over to him. He needs to zing McCain more often. Kill him with kindness but stick the knife in and twist it. Go for the jugular. McCain seemed robotic in the same way Bush is. Obama needs to attack more and stop staying I agree with McCain. Obama did not do anything to hurt himself. McCain did not do anything to push himself further down or up. Overall it was like being in your first real job interview. You know the answers you wanted each to give but their brains/prep got in the way. You could see the rote answers spill out. You could predict what they were going to say.
I noticed that McCain says stuff to Cindy after the debate and with the same face as after the convention speech. He is talking through clenched teeth - I wish I could read lips. Both times he seems to be showing his tense/angry self. Obama seems more relaxed, not too relaxed. Big point - McCain would not look Obama in the eye. Big one.
Remember this, we are going to see so little of the winner after he becomes president. Based on the first debate, I am more inclined to put my chips in with Obama at this time.

Who here is in foreclosure?


I am for one.  Not because I could afford my loan, because my wife and I split up.  I do not expect help from this bailout.  I expect our elected representatives to attempt to get the most good for the most people. 

This is not so much a bailout as a transfer of risk.  Our govt. can handle dead risk, unlike the markets.  There is a carcass in the road, mortgage securitizations and derivatives.  The govt. is just clearing the road so traffic can flow freely again.  No traffic = no credit.  No credit = no business.  I don't think many of us common folk can get our heads around the "quant" created financial system that currently is in place.  There is a big pool of money and people will get very creative to get a piece of it.  Whether it is an investment bank or a thief.   I work at an insurance company and see it every day (I investigate fraud).

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