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The next future policy crisis is likely to be created by allies
Biden stated that Obama will be tested in his first six months, however this big test could be created by allies of the United States. If the Likud wins the elections in Israel this make an attack on Iran more likely. A future conflict between Israel and Iran could leave American soldiers in Iraq vulnerable to increased insurgent attacks or even a Iranian invasion of Ihat country. Meanwhile the Hindu nationalist BJP party could take power in India, and this raises the possibility of an Indian attack on Pakistan. An Indian attack on Pakistan could strengthen the radicals in that country or make Pakistan move its military to the Indian border and thereby ignore its border with Afghanistan. In the next six months Obama will have his hands full trying to control both the Indians and the Israelis in order to prevent future conflicts.
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If an Indian attack happens, it will be because of severe Pakistani provocation. Mumbai writ large, if you will. And that Indian attack (targeted incursion, more likely) is the one that has the potential for far more catastrophic consequences. Both are nuclear powers. The constant irritant - Kashmir - remains, and the Mumbai attacks were carried out by a group dedicated to a Pakistani Kashmir.
The other part of this possible confrontation that worries me is that some in the defense industry will be tempted to see this as a short-term net positive, since we arm both potential belligerents.
December 12, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink