Assuming Palin prevails and gets to the Senate she will get the chance to enhance her Washington and national credentials and thus become a far stronger candidate than with just more Alaska executive experience (a low bar I know). Though if she starts a first Senate term in January 2011 a presidential campaign in 2012 seems out of the question. But she will only be 52 in 2016, and if Hillary does give it a last go we could have an all-female race.

As for a 2012 sacrificial lamb for Republican candidate, my favorate is Dan Quayle (who would have been a better pick by McCain this year), though Jeb Bush would also be interesting. You know he has to want the chance to redeem the family, even if he won't say that of course.