What the Latest State Polls Are Missing and the MSM Ignore
In one word - Alot! ....and the MSM is just plain ignorant in ignoring these factors as they still try to make this a horserace.
First, while the latest round of polls - esp. Mason Doxon show a tighening in a lot of states of 2-3 pts and the national polls have swung back 2-3 points from earlier in the week. How can tis be happening? Simple. The timing of state polls lag the daily trackers by 3-4 days.
So by Tuesday the state polls are likely to have swung back a bit as voting starts and at this point 1-3 points is important.
Second, state polls generally do not have cell phone voters included. Selzer, one of the best local Midwest pollsters does and they show huge Obama leads in MN and IA and a tie in IN.
The cell phone effect impacts young voters and minorities the most and is worth 2.8 pts on average according tofivethirtyeight.com.
Third, party ID is 7-9 points to the Democratic side and that alone if turnout holds as we are seeing in the early voting this is a huge wildcard.
Fourth, early voting trends are now indicative of a strong democratic trend, huge African American turnout and the young voters showing up in the states like GA,NC,NC,CO and FL where we have the best stats. Most polls are using outmoded turnout and voter demographics from prior elections and this easrly voting is pointing strongly that these assumptions are not the foundation for this election.
Fifth, the ground game comparisons between the enormous Obama campaign resources and McCain's haphazard, poorly organized efforts relying on local Republican state parties are what it is all about now. McCain has scaled back his ground game to run more ads and I guess robocalls.
GOTV is what works the last few days not ads to get turnout not ads that people are tired of. A good ground game is worth 2-3 pts and a great one like Obama's is worth 3-4 pts. McCain has neither. The vaunted 72 hour strategy of the Bush years is not as well deployed and will not help McCain like it helped Bush.
Sixth, turnout is a function of the above and enthusiasm and McCain's supporters are not enthusiastic. Early voting typically has been a Republican edge, especially in FL where this year Dems have a solid lead. With lack of enthusiasm comes 2 issues - one is simply staying home if the election appears lost and the second is soft support switching to go with the winner which Ed Rollins, Reagan's campaign manager, on CNN just said is worth 2-3 pts in an election like this.
Quantifying this impact is hard but again a point or two is deadly in close states.
Seventh and lastly, THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS THE BRADLEY EFFECT. Any reputable media outlets even discussing this is wasting good air and if anything there will be an Obama Effect where people vote secretly for him once in the voting booth, especially in the South.
Any combination of these factors creates an embarrassing defeat for McCain.
None of this means that we should let up at all but this election is headed to a blowout. Lots of the battleground states will be tight but if any state is within five points for McCain he is in trouble and any state where Obama is leading in the final poll averages will go Obama's way.
My projection is that Barack will win 393 electoral votes - winning every battleground state including IN and GA narrowly, with ND and AZ still options for him.
Remember as theye say on the PGA Tour - "it's not an art show its a math contest" - and on Tuesday you will need your calculator to add up the Obama electoral avalanche.
The thing is they only have two days. I don't care what the MSM wants to push, they won't be able to spin a landslide victory. So they can all end up with egg on their faces and there isn't a THING they can do about it.
November 2, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
i love it. i hope even half of what you say is true. and i love your opener--a lot is two words. it's a terific biden impression.
November 2, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent summary,and all the more reason to GOTV. A sweeping victory is possible, and needed.
November 2, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
What a pretty avatar -
I think you're right, John Nail.
November 2, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was keke's avatar I was complimenting -
November 2, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you, Tena. It's a slightly ragged bit of a butterfly wing, chosen both for its beauty, and to remind me of the "butterfly effect": our small efforts unleashing great forces. Back to GOTV!
gotv
November 2, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I thought you were complimenting my GT500! :-)
November 2, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I thought you were commenting on my GT 500!! :-)
November 2, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
He nailed it.
November 2, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
John Nail tends to Nail it.
November 2, 2008 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
"A lot" is two words.
November 2, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
But, as Samuel Goldwyn might say about a McSame landslide, in two words I'll tell you. Im possible.
November 2, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
For what it's worth, state polls no longer lag the trackers, Selzer doesn't call cellphones, and any party ID gap is already baked into most polls - Zogby, of course, excluded. But the broad point, that Obama is likely to win, is certainly correct.
November 2, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
We will be proven right come Tuesday Nail my friend, they(the MSM) won't know what do with themselves come Tuesday night.
November 2, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
FLyonTheWall
Nate a few months back confirmed that Selzer uses cells which is why I said that or they adjust for it...
Also I read Nate's comments on the state lag but if you look at some of these polls they are a day or 2 behind and at this point that matters. Not all are...
All I know is that we had 3x the number of volunteers today that our 4 precincts needed and sent folks on to 2 others on our side of town that are part of our leaders extended group.
We then had another 5 people show up and we simply sent them out to do doorhangers.
GA is fired up and our volunteer experience is being reflected in stories in VA, OH and other battleground states....more volunteers than work in some cases.....YES WE WILL!!
November 2, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great post, Mr. Nail!
I can't speak for any other battleground state except my own, but I've seen several days at our polling place before early voting ended. There were droves of excited people here in NC. In the primaries I saw African-American grandmothers and mothers taking their children in to vote for the first time. I saw enormous families coming out of mini-vans flocking to the polls, and heard them say to volunteers, myself included, that they were eager for as much information as we could give them.
There is a hunger on our side that is astonishing. I knew back when Mr. Obama got a couple months under his belt that he would be formidable. But this was something unlike I've ever seen.
I've been a depressed NC voter for the 12 years I've lived here. Our House Rep. is the most disgusting sort of Armey/"The Hammer" neophyte describable. If NC goes blue, I am going to fall back on the couch and enjoy a good cry. I've been waiting for this moment and this candidate ever since the Clinton Presidency fell apart. Thanks for all the contributors here and Josh. We're on the verge of something enormous. As Kos would say: "Leave nothing on the road."
November 2, 2008 9:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
We will be proven right come Tuesday Nail my friend, they(the MSM) won't know what do with themselves come Tuesday night.
November 2, 2008 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Imagine the Right Wing yackers like Bill o'gassbag after " That One' becomes president. Imagine McCadaver's distress at losing to "That One"
November 2, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
It feels good to be on the right side of history -- and have that finally come to fruition.
November 2, 2008 9:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
a lot is two words...
November 2, 2008 11:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
ALOT of people from the South are going to be looking at each other and saying, "I don't know how Obama won our state, I know I didn't vote for him!" with their fingers crossed behind their backs.
November 3, 2008 2:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
sigh What those polls are missing are that Hannity's got hold of a tape of Obama in - yes, you guessed it, San Francisco, talking about his energy plan - talking about his cap and trade policy bankrupting coal plants and saying - specifically - that under him electricity prices will "skyrocket".
Hannity had Steele and Pawlenty on talking about it and they said McCain and Palin are going to be screaming it to the rooftops at all their rallies on Monday. So it's going to hit the MSM.
How many ordinary folk do you think will continue to want to vote for someone who's promised to send their electricity bills through the roof?
This election is enough to make raving manic depressives out of the most normally level headed of us.
November 3, 2008 3:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am going to make sure I watch FOX on Tuesday. It is going to be a LONG night on Fox, a long HILARIOUS night.
November 3, 2008 8:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am going to make sure I watch FOX on Tuesday. It is going to be a LONG night on Fox, a long HILARIOUS night.
November 3, 2008 8:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
"How many ordinary folk do you think will continue to want to vote for someone who's promised to send their electricity bills through the roof?"
Fran, how many ordinary folks, in the final 24 hours of an election, will change their opinions based on a single Fox News story? The only effect this will have is to enrage Hannity's mob just a little more.
And that's a great label for Hannity's fans, like Rush has his dittoheads, Hannity has his "Mob".
Hannity's Mob... the ignorant, bigoted, reactionary hotheads who believe every lie. They are Lincoln's miscreant "some of the people all of the time...", and they would rather see us all suffer misery, rather than admit they have ever been wrong about anything.
November 3, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
But it's NOT just Hannity. McCain and Palin are screaming it to the rafters at their rallies so it will blanket the MSM.
November 3, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been predicting Obama's electoral haul at 350+ for a month now, based on some of the same observations. But it would be great to see 393, if that happens, we can just about count on the Republicans becoming a perrennial third party entity, henceforth ad infinitum.
Too bad, what NIXON, REAGAN AND THE BUSHES HAVE DONE TO THE PARTY OF LINCOLN.
Curious, how it seemed to have distilled the socipoaths, war mongers, perverts and religious hypocrites into one place, it is just unfortunate that so many good Americans got dragged down with the neocon scumbags who have quite effectively destroyed the GOP.
From within.
Hopefully, they don't drag us all into the maelstrom with them now they see thier pernicious grip on power prying loose.
Beware the cornered beast...
November 3, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've been predicting Obama's electoral haul at 350+ for a month now, based on some of the same observations. But it would be great to see 393, if that happens, we can just about count on the Republicans becoming a perrennial third party entity, henceforth ad infinitum.
Too bad, what NIXON, REAGAN AND THE BUSHES HAVE DONE TO THE PARTY OF LINCOLN.
Curious, how it seemed to have distilled the socipoaths, war mongers, perverts and religious hypocrites into one place, it is just unfortunate that so many good Americans got dragged down with the neocon scumbags who have quite effectively destroyed the GOP.
From within.
Hopefully, they don't drag us all into the maelstrom with them now they see thier pernicious grip on power prying loose.
Beware the cornered beast...
November 3, 2008 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
That double post thing was not my doing...
November 3, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
To pick one nit, fivethirtyeight.com says that it's a myth that state polls lag behind national polls. I don't know if that's true (my expertise is investment incentives), but since you cited Nate for another point in your post, I thought I'd mention it.
We're going all out in my battleground state (MO). I think we have a good shot.
November 3, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
This topic is a bit confusing but these Mason Dixon polls that the MSM and McCain have seized on as evidence of a tightening were 2 days old when released which at this late stage is a lifetime...If you look at all today's state polls they are trending back up again lagging the national ones that started on Friday..
November 3, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
No MSM wants to go out on a limb and predict a landslide, and the Obama camp is happy with that... and all your reasons are right on, but here is one more.
The last BIG reason is of course almost every poll is "Likely Voters" as measured by those who voted in the past. I know the CW here is that these are not reliable and shouldn't be counted (ask Howard Dean) -- but what's different here is that Obama has gotten cash contribution's from many of these- $5, $10, and $20 and more-- and these new voters who contribute, will turn out. I'll bet on it.
I believe that is one of the big reasons for the Obama campaign's confidence- they believe that they have another 3-5% in the bag with their new registrations, and combined with their GOTV efforts- that extra 3-5% makes for a confident campaign, even those few days a few weeks ago when McCain broke out ahead.
Taking on the MSM and CW one more time- I also believe the Undecideds will break to the front runner by wide margins, 3 or 4 to 1. Too optimistic? We'll see. My over/under for McCain's national vote total is 43%. (35% hardcore Rs and 8% I's and non-R racists)
Yes I do want a landslide, and a complete and utter repudiation of the goals, ideals, and policies of the Modern Republican Party, the party that loves George W. Bush and adores Sarah Palin. That says it all
November 3, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Double posting yours, missed mine...servers having trouble...
I've been predicting landslide fo the many reasons posted above... but htere is another. Despite the CW, Obama's new voters and young voters Will turn out... Skeptical? Here is the difference between his voters and Howard Dean-- he's gotten so many of them to contribute. If they contribue- even $5, they are ten times more likely to vote. They'll show up and I'll bet on it.
So massive number of new registrants, massive African-American turnout, and an unprecedented GOTV drive, equals a lot of Obama confidence (even when his poll numbers were down a few weeks ago, remember how calm their campaign was?) will equal a large electoral victory- 370-390 is not out of the question, and large margin of voters... I am predicting McCain not to receive more than 43% nationally. (35% hardcore R's + 8% non-R racists)
Like so many of you, I hope the margin is large enough to be the beginning of the end for the modern Republican Party- its ideas, values and win at any cost mentality-- the party that thinks W is wonderful and adores Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh and the slightly insane Hannity.
November 3, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink