If you look at the state level polls since the Post Palin LSD trip wore off and the financial crisis hit a curious and pretty consistent trend has hit the state polls.

McCain has dropped 12-14 points where we can measure it. The dirty dozen. Even the maroon red states have fallen back from the Palinpalooza poll numbers.

What does this mean for the states where we have no new polling in southern states  SC,AR,LA,MS and SD where ND and MT polling showing that both in play.

Go to RCP and apply the dirty dozen to any state you want that has not been polled in the last 10 days or better yet 3-4 weeks and see where it stands.

With GA and NC in play SC could be a stunner. AR is also a well organized Obama state that has soldiered on actively even while way behind. The African American population in LA and MS c an not be underestimated as well.

Here is a scenario that could develop:

• McCain the loser factor - people stay home - Obama +2-3
• Cell Phone factor - +3%
• Turnout - +2-3%. In the southern states the black voters are going to show in record numbers.
• New Voters - ??
• 3rd party - Barr, even with 1-2% in the South in this scenario also will contribute

So there are 10-12 points that these underpolled states could have. No pollster knows how big turnout is going to be, how much the youth vote will show up etc. There is a lot of uncertainty in these items that polls can't measure.

To me any state can see some of these same factors impact the final results and in the battleground states we may see much wider final totals there than the polls now show.

Stay tuned I think we are going to see some real surprises on election night due to all these factors and the historical nature of this election.