« Palin Says - "Would Not Have Ordered Robocalls" | John Nail's Blog | GA and NC Early Vote Update - 10/20 - Great News »

McCain Starts Retreat to his Appomattox


Apparently the McCain campaign has given up on IA (finally) and NM. CO is likely on the list but still a fight on the staff. The CNN article reports on this.

Here is an analysis of the paths left to McCain:

Their one path to win now is to hold these Bush states NV,MO,WV,IN (all tied or behind) and try and win OH,NC,VA,FL (he is behind in all) AND make a final desperate play for PA where he is down 11 and falling daily.

All these would give him 283 and a slight cushion to lose any of these combos:

  • IN (11 EV)
  • VA (13 EV)
  • WV and NV (10)
  • WV,NV & ND (13)
  • MO (11)
  • ND (3)

And still be above 270. An MO/ND combo loss or IN/ND loss would get a tie at 269 and then a win in ME CD 1 gets him to 270 unless Obama wins NE CD 2. A tie at 269 would then go to the Dem controlled House and Obama would win.

None of these include GA (15) which is in play and MT (3) which Mark Nickolaus has said Obama can win.

The possibilities of any of these combos and McCain winning all the other states where is losing in all of them is so far fetched that his army retreating is making its last exhausted gasps.

PA polls close at 8 PM so if it is called early we will know McCain's goose is cooked.

So it looks like John McCain, the George Custer of American Politics has one last stand. The McCain campaign of poor judgments and inane tactics has left this final battle and leads him to the home of Gettysburg, the high watermark of Lee's Confederate Army.

He is making his own version of Pickett's Charge where Lee's army was decimated in the hot sweltering sun after his most serious lapse of judgment and the war was effectively lost there as will McCain's run for the Presidency. 

The retreat after the fall of Petersburg to Appomattox took nearly 2 weeks as well...


share this...

2 Comments

| Leave a comment
user-pic

I really don't expect us to know the results of the election on Election day if it is close because I think we should wait for all votes to be counted in states where the republicans tried to limit democratic votes by forcing them on to provisional ballots. I am willing to wait how ever long it takes. If it's a landslide for Obama, great. Otherwise I want to see every vote counted.

user-pic

We'll know by 9 PM latest what the results are. By 7 several of these key states are closed - VA,IN,GA and NC/PA is 8.

If VA is called early or IN or GA are too close to call at 9 then this is over.

If the polls in PA (8 PM) continue to be +12 that will get called early ending any hope McCain has.

Leave a comment

John Nail

user-pic

Following:
Followers: 9

Posts
Comments & Recommends


Favorites

  • Favorite Blogs www.fivethirtyeight.com www.politicalbase.com www.jedereport.com
  • Favorite Books Undaunted Courage
  • Favorite Quotes "The fierce urgency of now"

All Reader Posts
How to use myTPM

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address