Florida Black Vote Already Exceeds 2004 Total!
if you have been following my blog coverage on GA and NC you know that the turnout in both states for African Americans is way up.
But guess what? Black turnout in Florida is out of control and most of it will have to be new/sporadic voters.
Florida's population is 15.1% black and only 12% of votes in 2004 came from that community.
Thus far in early voting African American votes are 35.2% of 2,594,000 voters. So lets compare:
2004 All Votes - 7,640,319 - Bush won by 381,000 votes.
- AA - 916.838 (12%)
2008 Early Votes - 2,594,000
- AA 2008 - 948,288 (35.2%)
WIth 4 days of early voting + Nov.4th left 32,000 more African Americans have voted than ALL OF 2004!!
McCain is dead in Florida if these numbers keep up with black voters outperforming their prior vote % (12%) by nearly 3X.
In contrast GA (35.2%) is running at 42% over our past voting % (25%) which by itself is enough for us to eke out a win here.
The wildcard for election night is going to be SC, LA and MS where the largest African American populations are. While polls in all 3 show McCain leading by 8-12%
based on the turnout we can measure already there is no reason to
believe these states won't exceed their prior results by 30-60%.
- LA is currently running in early voting at 36.3% vs. 27% of the 2004 vote
- or 35% ahead. Bush won LA in 2004 by 182,000 votes. A 9% increase in
the black vote alone erases that margin so LA could be in play as well.
Polls close at 7 Pm in both Florida and Virginia. If Obama wins either, let alone both, the election outcome will likely have been determined.
I wonder if such an event might reduce republican turnout in Western states sufficiently to turn Montana and North Dakota, as well ensure Obama wins in NV and CO and turn the election into a blowout.
October 30, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting point I agree that the enthusiasm gap w/ McCain's folks is more likely to come into play in that scenario. Mark Nickolaus at PoliticalBase sees MT going blue and AZ might be the one where the early trends make a real difference. They close at 9 EST.
IN and GA close at 7 as well. The new NBC poll shows LV McCain +5 but RV is tied which means turnput will bring surprises as well. SC is +5 on RV as well...
I think that a raft of early calls and nailbiters in states like GA, SC, LA and even MS could make this a real bummer for the western Repubs....
VA should be an early call if the poll gap holds.
October 30, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting point I agree that the enthusiasm gap w/ McCain's folks is more likely to come into play in that scenario. Mark Nickolaus at PoliticalBase sees MT going blue and AZ might be the one where the early trends make a real difference. They close at 9 EST.
IN and GA close at 7 as well. The new NBC poll shows LV McCain +5 but RV is tied which means turnput will bring surprises as well. SC is +5 on RV as well...
I think that a raft of early calls and nailbiters in states like GA, SC, LA and even MS could make this a real bummer for the western Repubs....
VA should be an early call if the poll gap holds.
October 30, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I enjoy your posts John Nail. But all of your predictions based upon the numbers you provide are premised upon:
All those votes being not only cast but COUNTED. I'm not sanguine about assuming that will happen.
October 30, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I understand your point but these early votes make it harder for screwups, breakdowns, old machines and all the other shenanigans to be used. All the major suppression efforts around the nation have been challenged and the Repubs have lost on them. The Obama team has a legal group in every state and in FL for every precinct to make sure that if there are issues they get jumped on immediately.
This is NOT the Gore/Kerry party but a guy from Chicago and a team ready for anything....
October 30, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink