Louisiana, the state of my birth, I was born in Lake Charles, may be going blue according to a local news poll:

NEW ORLEANS (KSLA) - A new poll you will see only on KSLA News 12  taken from October 24th through October 26th. The margin of error is 4.5 percent.

Meanwhile the race for the White House continues to tighten up, but there's signs that traditional red states, including Louisiana, could turn blue.

Renwick's poll shows Republican John McCain could be in trouble with Bayou State voters.

Until now, Louisiana was seen as a safe red state McCain, but Renwick's poll shows Democrat Barack Obama is coming on strong.

The poll shows Obama actually leading McCain 47 to 45 percent in favorability among the 500 registered voters who took part in the poll.

"They're only separated by two points and this is supposed to be a McCain state," Renwick said. "There should be a much greater differential if this is a McCain state."

But when asked if the candidates for president were John McCain and Barack Obama, which would you vote for today, McCain is ahead of Obama 43 to 40 percent, well within the margin of error of 4.5 percent. Fifteen percent didn't know and three percent said neither.

RCP does not show LA as competitive with their average at McCain +14, I had looked at LA earlier today as far as early voting and the African American voting was going and found similar trends to what we are seeing in NC and GA and actually mused that it might flip as well.

• 267,000 voters have cast ballots thus far of 13.6% of the 2004 vote total of 1.956 M. In 2004 only 6.5% voted early.

If the voting percentages hold at 9% above 2004 that translates into at least 180,000 more Democratic votes.

I've added pictures of our GOTV office below. It is in a neighborrhood that is 1 or 2 on a scale of 10 economically about a 1/3 of a mile from Morehouse College, Martin Luther King's alma mater. We had a volunteer's car stolen last weekend from across the street.

The building you see with the logo on the door is a historic site. It was owned in the 1920's by the son of a slave and he ran a refuge for lynching survivors there. The 2nd photo is around the corner and the new face of the neighborhood, a community center opening election nite.

We purposely dressed up the storefronts and windows to fire up this long forgotten neighborhood for Barack and people really like it.

I also bought buttons for our volunteers to hand out specifically to the kids in the area so that they would have a souvenir of this historic election. Maybe that will help remind them and motivate them over time to reach a little higher...

GA - Thru Wed. 10/29

Chuck Todd on Morning Joe today said that GA is too close to call and that we will be up late waiting for the results and that SC could surprise as well.

At this pace the non white vote will produce 400K new votes for Obama!! Bush won the state by 550K in 2004.

Kerry only got 23% of the white vote and polling shows Obama at 28%. That 5% is worth at least 150,000 votes.

GA is having issues as well with this volume.

Total - 1,572,293 (+185,000) - still more than double the average of the prior 10 days

• 2004 General Election Turnout - 3.3 Million

African American/Latino/Asian - 556K/ 10K / 8K - 574 K -  67,000 African American votes today alone!!

• 875K (25%) African Americans Voted in 2004 - 88/12 for Kerry
  
• 128k Latinos (4%) voted in 2004 - 56/44 for Bush

AA - 35.4%, 556K vs. 875K (25%)  in all of 2004. A 40% increase thus far. If this holds up that is 360K additional AA votes

Non White % - 36.5% - Holding steady - Target is 30%+ to win the election - this number is the key to watch

We are now at 50.4% of the 2004 vote when 20.2% voted early an 101% increase and we still have a 3 days to go. 693,000 more people have voted early than in 2004.

The latest poll show thas us down one and  Chuck Todd at NBC on Meet the Press Sunday had comments on the black turnout and its implications in GA, NC and other southern states.

NC

Total - 1,847.860 (+220,000)

• 2004 General Election Turnout - 3.55 Million - Bush won by 436,000 votes
  

Non White % - 31.1% - AA - 27.1 - Target is 20%+ to win the election - this has dropped slightly the last 3 days.

Dem early votes up 4.7% and Republicans down 8.2%, Indeps. up 3.5%

52.0% of the total 2004 vote has been reached already when 30.8% voted early!!

780,000 more NC voters have voted this year already than 2004.

Another new term enters the McCain lexicon. Bill McInturff, the McCain pollster, in a 6 page memo on their internal polls vs the public polls and saying that the race is "functionally tied", meaning that all the dozens of polls are wrong and if you use MOE on their internal polls that the race isn't over....and the Tooth Fairy is coming to the Straight talk Express tonite..

"Functionally Tied"? WTF...

Frankly this is hilarious nonsense and just a continuation of the lies that the McCain campaign actually believes.

The race is to 270 and McCain's goose has been cooked for weeks there and that is only getting deeper.

Bill, if the race is so close then how come you are now advertising in IN,MT, WV,GA, ND and AZ? And CNN, Karl Rove and RCP all have the Electoral College at 286-311 for Obama right now? And you are not even close in any Kerry state? And have lost IA and NM already...

I can hardly wait to not have to listen to the crap being shoveled by the McCain campaign anymore. The scary thing is that they beleive their own hype and lies...