Maybe Hugo Chavez isn't such a wacko after all. He seems to get Palin:

"She's a beauty queen that they've pulled out to be a figurehead. We need to say as Christ did: Forgive her, she knows not what she's saying."

I have seen several anecdotes like this, including one from PA. While I detest the "N" word in a weird way this type of discussion is actually moving the entire race discussion forward. This one comes from Big Stone Gap,VA and the great "On the Road" series from 538.com:

Last week, Julie Hensley made one of her thousands of phone calls on behalf of Barack Obama. A woman answered. As Hensley ran through her short script, the husband impatiently broke in.

"Ma'am, we're voting for the n***er." And hung up.

Hensley wasn't having it. "I went and made a couple other calls but chafed over this absurdity," she told us, "so I called them back, as I still had a couple questions for the wife." This time the man answered, asked pointedly who she was, and when she replied he hung up again.

As for Hensley, her story ended with a twist. A couple hours later during a pause in her dials, her phone rang. She recognized the number. "This is going to be good," she remembers thinking, getting ready to scrap.

It was the husband. He was calling for the woman on whom he'd hung up. She then got something she didn't expect -- an apology. Calmly, Hensley told the man she'd accept his apology on one condition -- he had to tell her who he was voting for.

"Oh, I don't normally talk about it but I feel like I owe you," the man said. "I am voting for Senator Obama." He asked if Hensley would like to speak to his wife, as he'd interrupted the original call. Hensley mentioned that she had been surprised when he'd called to apologize. Apparently the husband and wife had been talking the entire couple hours since the original call. "Did she get upset with you?" Hensley asked.

"What do you think?" the man replied.

Something tells me that Barack would not be offended by this and view the end result as one beginning step in the  progress he is seeking. His performance will finish these folks conversion and change their attitudes and hence the national discussion.

GA

GA continues its march to Obama. I am amazed and hear stories every day of people and the wait to vote.

Total - 867,210 (+75,000)

African American/Latino/Asian - 362K

% - 37.5% - Target is 30%+ to win the election - We gained +1% from the last 2 week average in one day so the trendline is going the right way. That is the barometer I watch the most.

We are now at 29.2% of the 2004 vote when 20.2% voted early.

We start canvassing our 11 precincts tomorrow and 8000 voters tomorrow !!!

NC

Total - 926,155 (+150,000)

% - 31.2% - Target is 20%+ to win the election

26.1% of the 2004 vote has been reached already when 30.8% voted early!!

This is a HUGE 150,000 vote day and our magic number is holding steady.

NOTE - One important thing to realize is that unlike NC where there are 400 Obama staffers we have 40 maybe in the field so their GOTV efforts so far are outperforming GA as a % of the non white population and in total numbers.

• NC is running roughly at 32.6% with 22% of the electorate being non white.
• GA is running at 37.6% with roughly 30% being non white.
• They are thus overperforming us by 25% which tells me we have lots of votes to harvest still and can get that type of over the top turnout as well by 11/4.

GA goes to expanded early vote next week with more local spots to vote and extended hours all week and that is where our efforts are focused. Motivation is a non issue. We are answering a lot of questions like where and when to vote, arranging rides etc....

All I know is that McCain's band of merry incompetents can look at these numbers and know that if they keep up they are in even bigger trouble than they know already.

GA

The numbers speak for themselves. WOW! GA Secy of State Link below, updates daily around 10 AM.

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08.htm

Total - 892,230  (+67,000)

Non White - 325K

% - 36.5%  - Target is 30%+ to win the election

We start canvassing our 11 precincts Saturday and people are psyched!!!

We'll be posting daily on our GOTV work next week and all I can tell your from talking to people in our area which is 100% African American is that they are all registered and all voting. They are even more angry by McCain's scare tactics.

NC

Georgia

it was so crowded voting yesterday that the last people finished at 10:30 even though the polls closed at 7 PM at one spot. GA is in play......I can feel it. Expanded polling places and hours start next Monday the 27th - 31st.

Total Votes - 825,983 (+69,000)

Non White Vote - 302,000

% -36.6%

Remember if the final vote has us over 30% for the African American/Latino/Asian vote we will win GA. It is tracking for 12 days now over 36%.

In 2004 20.2% voted early and already nearly 24.9% of 2004 voter totals have already and we have 9 days left!. Black vote was 25% and total non white vote was 29.4% and just shy of a million votes out of 3.3 million.

One interesting thing to remember about early voting is that it is inconvenient for people that do not drive in many cases. 20% of black voters do not have licenses so from what I can see in our 4 precincts most folks will not vote early and there will be an election day surge in  the black vote continuing the early voting trends.

If we track thru 10/31 when early vote ends like we are now (+/- 2%) McCain is going to lose GA as election day turnout in our larger inner city areas will be huge and Atlanta and Savannah are the keys to the black vote in GA.

Both States Continue to Soar! 140,000 More Vote on Mon., 10/20 !!!!

Georgia

Remember if the final vote has us over 30% for the African American/Latino/Asian vote we will win GA.

It is tracking for 11 days now over 36%.

Total Votes - 757,666 (+65K)

Non White Vote - 277,000

% -36.6%

In 2004 20.2% voted early and already 22.8% of 2004 voter totals have already and we have 10 days left!

NC is on fire as well with nearly 12% of the total cast in 2004 already in 4 days.

The non-white target for Barack to win in NC is 20%+ and this is a great start, even better on a % basis than GA.

Total Vote - 400,423

Non White % - 30.8%

I predict both go blue.....and GA will stun the pundits.

Note - Great site for all the early vote data updated daily

Apparently the McCain campaign has given up on IA (finally) and NM. CO is likely on the list but still a fight on the staff. The CNN article reports on this.

Here is an analysis of the paths left to McCain:

Their one path to win now is to hold these Bush states NV,MO,WV,IN (all tied or behind) and try and win OH,NC,VA,FL (he is behind in all) AND make a final desperate play for PA where he is down 11 and falling daily.

All these would give him 283 and a slight cushion to lose any of these combos:

• IN (11 EV)
• VA (13 EV)
• WV and NV (10)
• WV,NV & ND (13)
• MO (11)
• ND (3)

And still be above 270. An MO/ND combo loss or IN/ND loss would get a tie at 269 and then a win in ME CD 1 gets him to 270 unless Obama wins NE CD 2. A tie at 269 would then go to the Dem controlled House and Obama would win.

None of these include GA (15) which is in play and MT (3) which Mark Nickolaus has said Obama can win.

The possibilities of any of these combos and McCain winning all the other states where is losing in all of them is so far fetched that his army retreating is making its last exhausted gasps.

PA polls close at 8 PM so if it is called early we will know McCain's goose is cooked.

So it looks like John McCain, the George Custer of American Politics has one last stand. The McCain campaign of poor judgments and inane tactics has left this final battle and leads him to the home of Gettysburg, the high watermark of Lee's Confederate Army.

He is making his own version of Pickett's Charge where Lee's army was decimated in the hot sweltering sun after his most serious lapse of judgment and the war was effectively lost there as will McCain's run for the Presidency. 

The retreat after the fall of Petersburg to Appomattox took nearly 2 weeks as well...

Palin says if she had her way they wouldn't be doing robocalls.

She has started talking to all kinds of media on her own and is not on message all the time. Looks to me like with 2 weeks left we are going to see Mooselini do an "Edwards" to McCain and try to set herself up as best she can for 2012.

Trying to repair her image is all she will do other than the speeches she is told to make just watch.

An believe me she wants to be President. This lengthy New Yorker article on her vetting and campaigning for the job thru conservative pundits like that idiot Bill Kristol is quite revealing.

Palin may be an idiot but she is a highly ambitious one....I am afraid we are going to see more of her....unless the folks back home deal with the Troopergate results in the Legislature.

I thought we would look at NC like we did for GA and find very interesting patterns here as well.

NC was another state that over performed in the final primary results compared to polls with Obama winning by +14 vs. polls that showed him +8.

As you look at the stats there are a number of very interesting changes and opportunities for Obama that look a lot like GA in terms of the numbers Obama will need to hit to win. In GA he needs 30+% black turnout to win.

If African American turnout exceeds 22/23% Obama will likely win the state and Liddy Dole will leave the Senate as well. She is in real trouble vs. Kay Hagan.

Prior Election Results

• 2004 - 3.5M Votes cast - Bush won by 436,000, 56-44
  • 59% Female voters - Kerry only got 28% of white women, 27% of white men
  • 18.6% African American, Kerry - 85%, 84% black females
  • 14% under age 30 - 56% Kerry
  • Latino - <1%

Registered Voters

Growth has come in major cities and Research Triangle all good Dem areas.

Dems registered outnumber Repubs by 800K up from 650K in 2004 - Net chg. 150K

NC has 1.775M African American residents and is 7th in the nation and are 21.2% of the state's population (2006 est.)

• 2000 - 5.1 M
• 2004 - 5.45 M
  • African American - 984K
    
  • Latino - 11K
  • Female - 54.8%
  • Independent voters - up 450K to 1.366 M
• 2008 - 6.15 M - up 500,000 since 1/12008 alone
  • White - 4.75 M
  • African American 1.313 M- approx 22% of total
    
    • up 200K from 1/1
    • up 340K from 2004
  • Latino -  64K
    • up 23K from 1/1
  • Female - 54.3%

Voting Results

• Early voting started on Thursday and runs thru 11/1 and the first day saw over 116,000 voters cast ballots. Now over 200,000 have been cast.
  • 62% Dem, 11% unaffiliated
  • 36% African American, identical to GA stats for the last week
• Up 40% over 2004 first day

Conclusion

Clearly you can see how Barack can take NC. The ground game we had in the primaries was amazing and the state party pretty strong, as I worked in Hickory and will deliver the results.

We'll do a daily update for GA and NC from here on in to keep you up to date. We'll add other states in the battleground that are early voting if we can get good stats as well.

I have to think that SC is a possibility as well but the polling data there is very sparse. RCP has it at McCain +11 but the last Rass poll a month ago was only +6 and if SC goes the same way all the states have then it should be competitive.

We'll keep you informed as always.

I posted on this earlier today.

Mark Nickolaus also did a few days ago.

My first post from August on this Manipulation

This is my letter to a writer and the publisher at Real Clear Politics asking them why their poll methodology is applied so unevenly:

Re: RCP/MN Research 2000 Poll - Inconsistent Polls Used in MN??

Kyle/John, Why didn't you mention this R2000 poll which shows Obama +13. That supports the trend there. Instead your narrative focuses on Obama losing 6 pts in the newspaper poll which was a total outlier at +18. Including the R2000 polls ends the fantasy that MN is in play and gets to solid Obama.

It seems like you all are cherry picking what  you use and don't. In MN you use polls going back 3 weeks but in NC you only use 3 from the last 4 days. If you use only the last 3 in MN incl/ R2000 the lead is nearly 12 and gone to solid blue.

You are using an R2000 poll in NC for example it seems because it shows a 2 pt spread and that seems to fit your meme there. A longer trail than 3 polls might add a point or less but be more believable. Clearly NC is going to be tight...

I love RCP and have been a fan since you launched, but I think that you guys need to be more consistent in your application of the polls you use and a date range - the last week or 10 days or at least x number if date range is not deep enough. I can see dropping what you see as partisan polls though those seem to be registering the same results in nearly every case where ARG is so scattershot it is hard to take them seriously compared to others. Not counting them again makes little sense but at least there is some method to your madness here.

The national average is the same type of manipulation.  You use the last 3 days and drop all major news organizations polls before you get updates on them in the next few days. Also not using the R2000 poll here distorts your numbers. The impact here if you used the Newsweek from 10/9 and up is that the spread is 7% a 40% difference even more meaningful as we are 2 weeks out.

Also it seems the timing of some of these anomalies are on the weekend so that the news shows can quote you and support the horserace meme which is hardly unbiased. Clearly the site has a Republican lean which is fine but being more consistent makes you a better resource not a shill for the pundits who use you since they are too lazy to do more research than click on your site.

John McIntyre told Nate at 538 several weeks ago that with all the new trackers he couldn't use them all but voila the lowball Zogby and IBD/Tipp all of as sudden show up after that statement. That is proving to be a very reliable poll trending to the norm just as IBD has trended up to the norm. IBD is interesting and provides internals but Zogby's poll is absurd and an outlier since it uses 2004 party ID which makes zero sense. R2000 also offers internals and as it gets older has trended to the norm as it should as IBD now has as well.

Seems to me that the power of your averages is that they be exactly that consistently applied nationally and locally. Use all that are done and do the average. I thought the whole point of the averages was that highs and lows average out to the norm and the more polls used the more reliable the result is ?? Did I miss something here?

Also seems like these polls should also be average on sample size to give more heft to the larger samples as they should prove more accurate. Right? TPM does this and it makes sense and dampens the polls that jump around a lot due to sample size and methodology compared to  the Gallup and Rass originals w/ their 3000 sample size where a 2 point move in a day is titanic.

Looks like your applying an editorial screen to support a horserace and not accurately predicting the crushing McCain is about receive. He has at best a 1/1o shot and more like 1 in a 100 or 1 in a million and while that may change even you guys have him over 270 already...The leader 2 weeks out wins the race 90+% of the time and 4 years ago Bush was 3 up and never looked back.

I would appreciate a response to my input and thanks again for a great site that I use a dozen times a day.

John Nail,
Atlanta, GA

We will post their response if we get one.

A new ABC/WaPo poll shows that the 3 debates saw Barack's favorable ratings jump 24% and McCain's drop 6% for a 30% swing.

With the all important Independents Barack saw a greater swing of 33 points.

With the Powell endorsement that will only reinforce these impressions as will the huge crowds Barack drew this weekend. In fact 33% of undecided voters said a Powell endorsement would influence them and Gen. Powell is viewed positively by over 75% of the country.

The rash of virtually every major newspaper in the country, including a dozen who supported Bush in 2004, endorsements adds more comfort to people as well. For example both major Missouri papers in St. Louis and KC endorsed Barack and the visuals of those crowds adds to a picture of intevitabilty in that key state.

Powell specifically highlighted the pick of the unqualified Palin as another reason he endorsed Barack as did virtually every single newspaper that has endorsed. Her appearance on Saturday Nite Live was embarassing. She barely smiled and was insulted as if she were not there and she played along. A rally in a swing state or two yesterday would have been a musch better use of her time.

Apparently Barack isn't the scary radical black, or the naive newcomer who is too inexperienced to lead the nation, or Paris Hilton type celebrity, socialist, w/ shady pals that McCain has pushed the meme on. That is why the robocall slime and Joe the Plumber nonsense will hurt him a little as McCain soldifies his base but nothing more.

There is NO way McCain can overcome this deficit especially since the next 2 weeks are all about the ground game and the Obama machine is so much broader, deeper and engaged than the haphazard underfunded McCain campaign in swing states as well as the nextt tier that could go like GA.WV, SC.AR, MT and ND again.

The stratgic execution of this campaign is breathtaking in terms of its pace and timing. When he needed big endorsements he rolled them out at just the right time. Teddy before Iowa, Kerry after Rev. Wright, Edwards after Hillary won OH/PA and now Powell filling in the lack of experience and capability question on foreign policy.

The 30 minute program buy 5 days before the election will only serve to confirm and solidify people's opinions and maybe as importantly fire up his vast army to go all out to the finish.

I am working half time this week and virtually full time after that until election to be part of the history we are about to set and turn GA blue as well.

Stay focused, give what you can, volunteer or call from home using the MyBO tools. 16 days to go...lets roll up the score and give Barack the mandate and Congress that will allow him first to get us out this financial mess and get to work on the agenda we all support.