The Daily Star believes Israel is losing. Its staff writers give these quotes:

"It is undeniable that Israel is in a bind. The army has again been over-confident and underestimated its abilities to break Hizbullah," said Israeli military analyst Reuven Pedatzur.

The risk now is for Israel to invade South Lebanon. That would make its troops vulnerable to Hizbullah fighters.

For the moment at least, the specter of sliding back into the quagmire of Lebanon has put the brakes on a ground offensive. Yet Olmert has approved intensified ground operations, described by the Israeli Army as "pinpoint."

General Alon Friedman said the military was "operating to destroy Hizbullah infrastructure and underground bunkers in particular," and that enough troops were on the border to launch a large-scale operation.

"Hizbullah seems to be holding strong and its morale seems intact," said Shaul Mishal, a Tel Aviv University specialist in Islamic groups. "It's an illusion to think that with force alone we can destroy the weapons of a movement like Hizbullah, which has widespread support from Shiites in Lebanon."

Israel's Haaretz daily wrote Thursday: "Despite the media euphoria and the patriotic spin, the aerial war ... is not heading for victory. In the best case, it is heading for a limited military achievement ... The air force's hammer blows are hitting Lebanon harder than they are hitting Hizbullah ... Even in the best-case scenario, Hizbullah will rise from the rubble ... One way or the other, the illusion of a magic solution is about to burst." - Agencies

With Hezbollah’s entry into the war between Israel and Hamas, Fourth Generation war has taken another developmental step forward. For the first time, a non-state entity has gone to war with a state not by waging an insurgency against a state invader, but across an international boundary. Again we see how those who define 4GW simply as insurgency are looking at only a small part of the picture.

I think the stakes in the Israel-Hezbollah-Hamas war are significantly higher than most observers understand. If Hezbollah and Hamas win—and winning just means surviving, given that Israel’s objective is to destroy both entities—a powerful state will have suffered a new kind of defeat, again, a defeat across at least one international boundary and maybe two, depending on how one defines Gaza’s border. The balance between states and 4GW forces will be altered world-wide, and not to a trivial degree.

So far, Hezbollah is winning. As Arab states stood silent and helpless before Israel’s assault on Hamas, another non-state entity, Hezbollah, intervened to relieve the siege of Gaza by opening a second front. Its initial move, a brilliantly conducted raid that killed eight Israeli soldiers and captured two for the loss of one Hezbollah fighter, showed once again that Hezbollah can take on state armed forces on even terms (the Chechens are the only other 4GW force to demonstrate that capability). In both respects, the contrast with Arab states will be clear on the street, pushing the Arab and larger Islamic worlds further away from the state.