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   <title>jchaus&apos;s Blog</title>
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   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/jchaus//3686</id>
   <updated>	2008-12-05T02:32:56Z	2008-12-05T02:29:04Z	2008-12-05T01:57:22Z	2008-12-05T01:52:58Z	2008-12-05T01:46:20Z	2008-12-05T00:20:43Z	2008-12-04T22:14:04Z		2008-12-04T21:16:34Z	2008-12-04T21:10:00Z	2008-12-04T21:05:11Z		2008-12-04T20:15:21Z		2008-12-04T19:39:23Z	2008-12-04T19:36:30Z	2008-12-04T18:34:28Z	2008-12-04T18:22:12Z	2008-12-04T18:02:09Z	2008-12-04T16:53:10Z	2008-12-04T14:48:05Z	2008-12-04T14:47:48Z	2008-12-04T14:37:05Z		2008-12-04T03:42:09Z	2008-12-04T03:23:25Z		2008-12-04T03:10:06Z		</updated>
   
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			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.246012-comment:3300852</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/krugman_obamas_centrist_econom.php#c3300852" />
		
		    <title><![CDATA[jchaus Commented on Krugman: Obama&apos;s Centrist Economic Appointments &quot;Unavoidable&quot; by Greg Sargent]]></title>
		        
			<published>2008-11-27T12:45:26Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-11-27T12:45:26Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>Galbraith. </p>

<p>Should definitely be at the table.</p>]]>
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	<entry>
		
	<title><![CDATA[jchaus recommended &quot;I Wanna Gather Up Talent From Everywhere&quot; by Josh Marshall]]></title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/245525.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://2.245525</id>
  <published>2008-11-23T07:09:44Z</published>
   <updated>2008-11-23T07:10:59Z</updated>
	</entry>
	




	
        
			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.245423-comment:3295735</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/report_hillary_to_accept_secre.php#c3295735" />
		
		    <title>jchaus Commented on Report: Hillary To Accept Secretary Of State Gig by Greg Sargent</title>
		        
			<published>2008-11-21T20:17:25Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-11-21T20:17:25Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>I am not sure this was part of the original calculation by Obama, but . . .</p>

<p>Those people who were fanatical Hillary supporters are less likely to be grudging supporters of Obama.  Not that the election showed this decisively harmed Obama . . . it did not.</p>

<p>It also suggests that Obama is quite willing to share the stage.  I don't doubt that he does not mind being upstaged at certain moments, so long as he achieves his policy objectives.  I suspect he will use this dynamic as a political and power resource.  How he will play this dynamic will be positively entertaining.</p>]]>
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			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://14.245282-comment:3295403</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/20/_the_stock_market_the_governme/#c3295403" />
		
		    <title>jchaus Commented on The Stock Market, the Government Just Needs to Spend Money by Dean Baker</title>
		        
			<published>2008-11-21T17:50:51Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-11-21T17:50:51Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>The great (Keynsian) British economist Joan Robinson said during the Great Depression</p>

<p><i>When we were up against sound finance and the Treasury view, we had to argue that any expenditure is better than none. Dig holes in the ground and fill them again, paint the Black Forest white; if men cannot be paid wages for doing something sensible, pay them to do something silly.</i></p>

<p>It is best if pay people to do sensible things, but if we have them do silly things, that is better than nothing.  BUT, bailing out finance firms that use the money for strategic acquisitions, or send the money overseas does not of this.  Since we appear to have no controls over the expenditures of those loans Paulson has made, the money may truly we wasted.  It certainly won't stimulate demand by putting wages in peoples pockets.</p>]]>
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            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.245266-comment:3294701</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/franken_camp_were_feeling_good.php#c3294701" />
		
		    <title><![CDATA[jchaus Commented on Franken Camp: We&apos;re Feeling Good About The Recount by Eric Kleefeld]]></title>
		        
			<published>2008-11-21T01:53:00Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-11-21T01:53:00Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>I used to wait on tables in New York.  Franken was a regular.  Very nice guy; his wife Frannie was even more so.  </p>

<p>Nice to see he has a "camp" now!</p>]]>
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            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.245110-comment:3293236</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/its_over_in_alaska_--_ted_stev.php#c3293236" />
		
		    <title><![CDATA[jchaus Commented on It&apos;s Over In Alaska -- Ted Stevens Concedes Defeat by Eric Kleefeld]]></title>
		        
			<published>2008-11-19T22:36:07Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-11-19T22:36:07Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>Not surprised he chose not to pay for a recount.  He was miserable in the Senate this week, as it became clear to him that the Republicans did not want him around, would strip him of committee assignments, membership in the caucus, and anything else they could.  Not as much fun as being committee chair of the commerce committee, as he was prior to the Democratic takeover.</p>]]>
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            <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/azpaull//1758.244921-comment:3292309</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/azpaull/2008/11/pilates-class-punishment-for-j.php#c3292309" />
		
		    <title>jchaus Commented on Pilates Class Punishment For Joe? by azpaull</title>
		        
			<published>2008-11-19T03:46:46Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-11-19T03:46:46Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>It is certainly not something I want to see.</p>]]>
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            <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/jchaus//3686.244867-comment:3291136</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/jchaus/2008/11/lieberman-incompetence-may-be.php#c3291136" />
		
		    <title>jchaus Commented on Lieberman Incompetence may be useful by jchaus</title>
		        
			<published>2008-11-18T17:38:44Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-11-18T17:38:44Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>Good point.  We will have to observe what real leverage the Administration has over him.  But of course it matters as to whether it is necessary to trust Lieberman.  Don't know enough, but I would be interested to hear the views of those with more insight.</p>

<p>On the other hand, if cloture on a key vote fails by one, and it is Lieberman's vote, well . . . </p>]]>
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	<title>jchaus recommended The Anatomy of Conservative Self-Deception by Ed Kilgore</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/13/the_anatomy_of_conservative_se/" />
   <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://14.244193</id>
  <published>2008-11-13T14:15:11Z</published>
   <updated>2008-11-13T23:03:37Z</updated>
	</entry>
	




	
        
			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://14.243659-comment:3282086</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/09/the_mini_depression_and_the_ma/#c3282086" />
		
		    <title>jchaus Commented on The Mini Depression and the Maximum-Strength Remedy by Robert Reich</title>
		        
			<published>2008-11-10T03:32:56Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-11-10T03:32:56Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>Keynsianism 101.  </p>

<p>I note that Mr. Reich manages to elide monetary policy, and for good reason.</p>

<p>This is going to be ONE HELL of a REACTION to the purported laissez faire ideology we have been subjected to during the Reagan to Bush Era.  </p>

<p>Will the reaction be as extraordinary as the New Deal reaction to the 1920's?  Stay tuned . . . </p>]]>
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			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.242883-comment:3274151</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/obama_wins_presidency_networks.php#c3274151" />
		
		    <title>jchaus Commented on OBAMA WINS PRESIDENCY, NETWORKS SAY by Greg Sargent</title>
		        
			<published>2008-11-05T04:06:32Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-11-05T04:06:32Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>What a wonderful day to be alive.</p>

<p>Everyone enjoy.  Enjoy.  Enjoy.</p>

<p><br />
Because we have a LOT of work to do.  This has just started.</p>

<p>But tonight I am rejoicing!</p>]]>
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	<title><![CDATA[jchaus recommended comment on &quot;joe the skinhead&quot; by jchaus]]></title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/jchaus/2008/11/comment-on-joe-the-skinhead.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/jchaus//3686.242056</id>
  <published>2008-11-02T22:23:14Z</published>
   <updated>2008-11-02T22:37:54Z</updated>
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	<entry>
		
	<title>jchaus recommended Ground Game by Josh Marshall</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/241837.php" />
   <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://2.241837</id>
  <published>2008-11-01T22:15:27Z</published>
   <updated>2008-11-01T22:26:13Z</updated>
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			<entry>
            <id>tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://14.241075-comment:3260584</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/30/mandate_open_thread/#c3260584" />
		
		    <title>jchaus Commented on Mandate Open Thread by Lila Shapiro</title>
		        
			<published>2008-10-30T16:04:19Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-10-30T16:04:19Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>Thinking in terms of a specific "mandate" misses some of the larger significance of this election.  This is likely to be an election that fits nicely into the critical realignment perspective.  </p>

<p>In brief, critical realignment theory begins with the premise of a vibrant social and economic system paired with a relatively static political system: our Constitution is an 18th Century document, and sets up a rather antique division of labor in the political branches.  It purposely makes it difficult to effect new political programs.  Once a party gets in power, it tends to do things to perpetuate that power, contributing to stasis.  Given the vibrant social and economic system it is paired with, the political party system is prone of periodic upheavals.  </p>

<p>The upheavals in the past have been tied to the elections of Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, William McKinley, and FDR.  Each of these is identified with an era of politics that persisted for a good thirty to forty years of so.  Thus we can identify the "Age of Jackson", or the New Deal Era.</p>

<p>One of the controversies (among many) of more recent developments is what happened to the purported next realigning election.  It was due to occur around 1968 or so.  But that saw the continuation of Democrats in Congress, paired with Nixon.  It does not look like a "classic" realignment.  And then we must question whether the Reagan era fits within this rubric as well.  Some argue that 1968 was a sort of realignment: it indicated a decline in trust for government.  Others pin the end of the New Deal era with the imploding of the Carter Administration and the rise of Reaganism, centered on the election of 1980.  Complicating these assessments is the change in voting patters of Southerners.  Before 1964, no respectable Southerner would vote Republican.  The shift to conservative Republicanism by Southerners took a generation, but by the mid-1990's the shift was pretty much complete.  Note that realignment theory suggests a rapid change in political alignments, and the change in party affiliation of southern conservatives involved a number of shocks as well as gradual change.  Phil Gramm's conversion to the Republican Party after having first been elected as a Texas Democrat is symptomatic of this.</p>

<p>What does this suggest for the present?  We cannot know whether this will be a realigning election.  But I suspect it will be.  And race is again an issue.  But in this case it will be race as a redepemption of the sins of our political and social history.  That sin will die with convulsions.  That is what we are seeing right now: the use of race code words to scare people from voting for Obama.  If it does not work, then the likelihood of doing this in the future decreases.  If an Obama administration is successful, then the power of such appeals will be lessened.</p>

<p>More to the point as to the general significance of the Obama Administration, it will likely have an extraordinary opportunity to attempt to reconstruct American politics.  This is the lesson of other reconstructionist presidents: Jackson, Lincoln, FDR, Reagan.  What exactly will be the program it is difficult to know.  We could not have known what FDR would do, during the election of 1932.  After all, his National Recovery Act of the first New Deal placed business and labor under the supervision of Government approved industry codes.  That amounted to national corporatism, and was struck down by the Supreme Court.  Only then did we see the National Labor Relations Act and Social Security (both 1935 acts).  </p>

<p>We are at a game changing moment.  The faith in free market economics is gone -- one need note only Greenspan's recent comments to be sure of this.  What will follow is not clear.  But I have immense faith in this man Obama.  He is incredibly smart.  And he knows that, if elected, he will have immense opportunity to reconstruct American politics, building on what exists at this moment in history.  And I look forward to seeing this happen.</p>]]>
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			<entry>
            <id>tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/jchaus//3686.239169-comment:3245312</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/jchaus/2008/10/outlier-ap-poll.php#c3245312" />
		
		    <title>jchaus Commented on Outlier AP Poll? by jchaus</title>
		        
			<published>2008-10-23T00:12:31Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-10-23T00:12:31Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>I like Nate Silver's comments.  I must confess I am particularly interested in the biases that will be revealed once the votes are counted.  In particular, I am interested in the extent to which cell phone users who are not counted, and are poorly accounted for in most of these polls.  </p>

<p>Secondly, I strongly suspect there will be a MASSIVE increase in voter participation.  Turnout will be a big jump from 2004 (59%), which was a big jump up from 2000.  This is a mobilization.  Such mobilizations are rare in American political history.  Turnout in the 1880's reached 85% for presidential years (and think, these people were not college educated for the most part--whereas today we expect turnout to increase with education--but I digress).  Turnout declined steadily for a variety of reasons, including the introduction of the Australian ballot (secret ballots instead of publicly visible ballots, which begins in 1890), the spread of the white-only primary in the South (begins in 1890, along with poll taxes and literacy tests).  Turnout expands significantly in 1932, which was the FDR realignment.  It then will steadily decline slightly, dropping off more significantly around 1968, where there was an increase of distrust in government amidst the Vietnam War.  Watergate merely increased this distrust.  </p>

<p>The Reagan era showed a voter turnout of about 55% or so in most presidential elections, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.  It declined slowly.  </p>

<p>The Obama phenomenon will almost certainly smash recent records for turnout (just a hunch at this point--although polls suggest this is correct.  And this will confound many pollsters, because they are generally not accounted for in their stratified samples.</p>

<p>The new voters will almost certainly be systematically different the old voters.  They will almost certainly be Obama voters.  And we (I hope) will witness a LANDSLIDE of HISTORIC proportions (think in terms of Andrew Jackson and FDR).</p>]]>
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            <id>tag:tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://9.237479-comment:3231417</id>
		    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/snap_polls_give_overwhelming_w.php#c3231417" />
		
		    <title>jchaus Commented on Snap Polls Give Overwhelming Win to Obama by Eric Kleefeld</title>
		        
			<published>2008-10-16T03:59:43Z</published>
			   <updated>2008-10-16T03:59:43Z</updated>
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		        <![CDATA[<p>Well, this all gets back to basics.  McCain is not very smart.  He never has been.  </p>

<p>He is not really honorable.  He never has been.  He just claims to be -- e.g., after all, he didn't support campaign finance reform until after he was caught as one of the Keating Five.</p>

<p>He doesn't know very much.  He never did.  He just talks to TV cameras.  So when policies get to specifics, he rambles, gives talking points, doesn't concern himself with consistency or mastery of concepts.  Because he can't.</p>

<p>There is a reason why he finished at the bottom of his class in Annapolis.  </p>

<p>He is OUT OF HIS LEAGUE (and don't even get me started about Palin).</p>]]>
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