The massacre by US Forces of women and children in Bala Baluk last night is reminiscent of Azizibad.

Do folks even remember Azizibad?

It's doubtful last night's mass murder in Bala Baluk will be remembered either.

I do expect Barack will respond to the carnage appropriately, and not to leave it to his Generals to talk about collateral damage and missed coordinates and the dangers of bombing bad guys.

Wars and occupations get hot in the summer.  More such massacres are possible in Afghanistan, and Iraq.  It's Obama's job to make sure they don't.  There will be some ready to apply the baby murderer tag and others suggesting he is not murdering enough babies.

We can expect more body bags because of Bala Baluk.  Soon Obama will have a lot more explaining to do.

I expect it to go to out tonight (before the East Coast turns in) or late tomorrow morning when the rates are cheaper (and the West coast is awake).
I can see Schweitzer getting off a plane at Midway without anyone recognizing him and finding himself a stool in a Blues Bar in the South Side before hooking up with Barack to go over the agenda for Springfield.
(Meanwhile the mass broadcast and print media are camped outside Evan Bayh's fat crib in DC and waiting for Pizza outside Joe Biden's place.  Fools.)

The Obama camp just announced Obama's schedule for next week.  He's not going to be in Denver for most of the convention.  Instead he will be campaigning in the following cities.

Springfield, IL - Sat; Eau Claire, WS - Sun; Quad Cities Area, IW - Mon; Kansas City, MS - Tues; and Billings , MT - Wed

If the schedule is any indication, Obama's VP could very well be Brian Schweitzer.


Obama and Schweitzer doing their thing in states where it matters and ending up Billings before heading to Denver together.


It makes sense in that he comes as close to duplicating Mark Warner (Obama's 1st choice) as other candidate out there.  He can govern. He's Catholic.  He would bring Montana's 5 votes (and make Obama competitive in other Mountain and Plain states). He reinforces Obama widening the political map.  He speaks Arabic, so changes how America is perceived globally.

Unlike Warner (whose future Presidential aspirations clearly clash with Hilliary) Schweitzer probably does not have a future Presidential trajectory mapped out.  He will get his head down and work for the next four years and then see what's up. He may not be the numbers guy that would have complemented Obama like Warner would have been, but others can do that work.


I would be pleased with this choice (though I stand to lose a bundle on Mark Warner Intrade Stocks). Schweitzer is cuddly, without being a Teddy.  He's a classic back up and a good brother to have your have back.  


I'm down with the pick.  It will liven up the landscape in a way that three recent smokescreen muppets could never do (and looking forward to reading the excellent Tim Egan's next opinion piece once the SMS goes out). 

The announcement that Obama has a big event planned in Indianapolis, Indiana, on Saturday afternoon, directly after he has introduced his VP in Springfield, Illinois, can only mean on thing: Indianapolis born Mark Warner, former Governor of Virginia is the man for the job.
http://www.nashvillepost.com/news/2008/8/20/obama_team_to_hold_major_event_saturday_in_bayhs_indiana

Finally.  An attempt to analyze the race using registration numbers.  Thank you, Jennifer Steinhauer.  
The attached graphic looks at 7 States with the most substantial increases in Democratic registration.  It notes that 29 states register voters with party affiliations and says more than half of those have had Democratic increases. 
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/05/us/politics/05flip.html?hp
Can TPM take this to the next level and produce a graphic that measures the registration trends and previous margins in all 50 states and DC?  That would be information we could use!
Most every month many of the respective secretaries of states release registration numbers.  These are the numbers to follow, not the polls.  
Obama is keenly aware of the margin of Bush's victories in a dozen or so states he is attempting to win.  These are the numbers he is chasing down.
I don't care if polling agencies tell me Obama is leading by 2,3,4,5% in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio and Virginia.
What we to know is what were the margins of Bush's victories in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio and Virginia and how many folks have registered Democratic in those states since 2004.  We can then all make the usual deductions and calibrations ourselves.

An Improper Ticket?

Has anyone else noticed the preponderance of potential Obama VP candidates with four-lettered last names?

Could Obama and his team be ever so slightly influenced by how the ticket stacks up, subconsciously desiring a top-heavy ticket (or at the very least trying to avoid a dominant denominator).

It’s an absurd suggestion, of course, particularly where Obama-Axelrod-Plouffe are concerned.  But subconscious forces can be real, particularly when it comes to presentation and power.

Conveniently, a whole host of VP candidates with four-letter last names make some sense.

DODD endorsed OBAMA almost immediately upon quitting the Presidential race. Dodd has admitted to being vetted. Dodd said he would accept.  Dodd has Presidential hair.  And Obama owes Ned Lamont.  Dodd may make a better Attorney General, however.

BAYH secures Indiana (one would think). His selection would smell of an arrangement to keep Hilliary onside.  (For some reason certain voters are attracted to that odor.) If Obama choose Bayh, it would mean he is confident in getting Bayh to knuckle down and do what he’s told (and not snoop for Hilliary).  The smirk on Bayh’s face recently suggests this could be on.  But I am not sure how Obama then explains Bayh’s eagerness to support Bush’s war in Iraq.

REED has said no, and categorically so, months ago.  He prefers to serve Rhode Island. The need for Reed to balance McCain’s military credentials is now looking less important.  Still, Reed would be a reliable and capable LT.  His Napoleonic stature is sort of Presidential.  Plus, he drives a 1991 Ford Escort.  The voters would love that.  But the Electoral College has a harder heart.

NUNN could bring Georgia (and influence other Southern states).  Moreover, Nunn’s seriousness is something Obama is comfortable with. But Obama is proving he can handle Foreign Affairs (which is exactly what he said on the Mayhill Fowler SF tape). And what expertise does Nunn have on issues other than Foreign Affairs?  Nunn would not be a bad choice, but surely he would be more effective in the Cabinet.

GORE has placed term limits on himself, thankfully.  I like the idea of unfinished business.  And although I was all for Florida militias mobilizing at the time (to ensure the votes got counted), we don’t need to go back there now.  Gore can do more good if given some sort of Tsar like environment role.

WEBB was problematic for a whole host of reasons, discussed here often.  Webb can serve more effectively in the Senate.  The nation does not need two paperback writers in the White House at the same time.

So what of those with five-lettered last names, I am hear you saying.

BIDEN could help Obama with rust-belt Catholics.  Biden babble is sometimes untranslatable, but voters don’t necessarily want succinct smartarseness. Obama did say he wanted Biden to campaign with him this summer.  In other words, Obama wants to be seen hanging out with Biden. And the possibility of Biden being chosen can influence McCain’s planning.  At best, I suspect Biden is being held in reserve in the event that McCain picks Ridge, or the first choice VP pulls out for whatever reason.  If Biden is chosen, it may mean Obama having to entertain some hybrid of the Biden-Gleb plan.  Hello Kurdistan.

KAINE may be Obama’s other fall-back option should McCain choose Ridge.  Kaine could help Obama with more the devout Catholic (and Hispanic voter). Kaine could bring Virginia, help with pro-life Catholics in Pennsylvania, and grab just enough cross-over evangelicals in the South willing to give Obama’s broad church a go.  But reacting to McCain, especially with a VP that could alienate huge number of the Democratic base would be silly.  And let’s not forget the mechanics of the electoral system remain suspect. Would it really be wise for Obama to run the risk voters of getting mixed up with Obama-Kaine and McCain-Dingbat?  

HAGEL will beat McCain up enough without being on the ballot.  Hagel could help bring at least one electoral vote in Nebraska and could help tip the balance in states with large military populations.  He would almost certainly replace Gates as Obama’s Secretary of Defense.

CLARK has found his level on the talk show circuit. Like Bayh, Clark is another Hilliary stooge, but unlike Bayh he cannot be trusted because he is much more of an opportunist.  Bayh maybe a rightist DLC Democrat (at least we know that), but Clark would have been anything you wanted him to be in the last four years.  And Kosovo was as much an illegal screw up as Iraq, however you slice it.  The further away Clark is from an Obama administration the better.

I leave others make for those with more four or five letters in their name.  I am sure creative font choice, size and spacing will compensate for any character with more than four or five characters in their name.

Personally, I like this character with six letters in his name:  Mark Warner.  (Y'all knew I was going there, didn't you!)

There have been hints recently that Obama-Warner is on. The WAPO interview when Warner did not categorically say no, but talked about his children.  James Carville mentioning Warner as an ideal running mate on ABC’s Morning show.  And now Warner has been mentioned two days in a row in NBC’s First Read, suggesting those hounds are on the scent.

What y'all think?  C'mon now.  Let's hear from typesetters and numerologists among y'all.  It's a beautiful thing, no?

O   B   A   M   A
  W A R N E R

An Improper Ticket?

Has anyone else noticed the preponderance of potential Obama VP candidates with four-lettered last names?

Could Obama and his team be ever so slightly influenced by how the ticket stacks up, subconsciously desiring a top-heavy ticket (or at the very least trying to avoid a dominant denominator).

It’s an absurd suggestion, of course, particularly where Obama-Axelrod-Plouffe are concerned.  But subconscious forces can be real, particularly when it comes to presentation and power.

Conveniently, a whole host of VP candidates with four-letter last names make some sense.

DODD endorsed OBAMA almost immediately upon quitting the Presidential race. Dodd has admitted to being vetted. Dodd said he would accept.  Dodd has Presidential hair.  And Obama owes Ned Lamont.  Dodd may make a better Attorney General, however.

BAYH secures Indiana (one would think). His selection would smell of an arrangement to keep Hilliary onside.  (For some reason certain voters are attracted to that odor.) If Obama choose Bayh, it would mean he is confident in getting Bayh to knuckle down and do what he’s told (and not snoop for Hilliary).  The smirk on Bayh’s face recently suggests this could be on.  But I am not sure how Obama then explains Bayh’s eagerness to support Bush’s war in Iraq.

REED has said no, and categorically so, months ago.  He prefers to serve Rhode Island. The need for Reed to balance McCain’s military credentials is now looking less important.  Still, Reed would be a reliable and capable LT.  His Napoleonic stature is sort of Presidential.  Plus, he drives a 1991 Ford Escort.  The voters would love that.  But the Electoral College has a harder heart.

NUNN could bring Georgia (and influence other Southern states).  Moreover, Nunn’s seriousness is something Obama is comfortable with. But Obama is proving he can handle Foreign Affairs (which is exactly what he said on the Mayhill Fowler SF tape). And what expertise does Nunn have on issues other than Foreign Affairs?  Nunn would not be a bad choice, but surely he would be more effective in the Cabinet.

GORE has placed term limits on himself, thankfully.  I like the idea of unfinished business.  And although I was all for Florida militias mobilizing at the time (to ensure the votes got counted), we don’t need to go back there now.  Gore can do more good if given some sort of Tsar like environment role.

WEBB was problematic for a whole host of reasons, discussed here often.  Webb can serve more effectively in the Senate.  The nation does not need two paperback writers in the White House at the same time.

So what of those with five-lettered last names, I am hear you saying.

BIDEN could help Obama with rust-belt Catholics.  Biden babble is sometimes untranslatable, but voters don’t necessarily want succinct smartarseness. Obama did say he wanted Biden to campaign with him this summer.  In other words, Obama wants to be seen hanging out with Biden. And the possibility of Biden being chosen can influence McCain’s planning.  At best, I suspect Biden is being held in reserve in the event that McCain picks Ridge, or the first choice VP pulls out for whatever reason.  If Biden is chosen, it may mean Obama having to entertain some hybrid of the Biden-Gleb plan.  Hello Kurdistan.

KAINE may be Obama’s other fall-back option should McCain choose Ridge.  Kaine could help Obama with more the devout Catholic (and Hispanic voter). Kaine could bring Virginia, help with pro-life Catholics in Pennsylvania, and grab just enough cross-over evangelicals in the South willing to give Obama’s broad church a go.  But reacting to McCain, especially with a VP that could alienate huge number of the Democratic base would be silly.  And let’s not forget the mechanics of the electoral system remain suspect. Would it really be wise for Obama to run the risk voters of getting mixed up with Obama-Kaine and McCain-Dingbat?  

HAGEL will beat McCain up enough without being on the ballot.  Hagel could help bring at least one electoral vote in Nebraska and could help tip the balance in states with large military populations.  He would almost certainly replace Gates as Obama’s Secretary of Defense.

CLARK has found his level on the talk show circuit. Like Bayh, Clark is another Hilliary stooge, but unlike Bayh he cannot be trusted because he is much more of an opportunist.  Bayh maybe a rightist DLC Democrat (at least we know that), but Clark would have been anything you wanted him to be in the last four years.  And Kosovo was as much an illegal screw up as Iraq, however you slice it.  The further away Clark is from an Obama administration the better.

I leave others make for those with more four or five letters in their name.  I am sure creative font choice, size and spacing will compensate for any character with more than four or five characters in their name.

Personally, I like this character with six letters in his name:  Mark Warner.  (Y'all knew I was going there, didn't you!)

There have been hints recently that Obama-Warner is on. The WAPO interview when Warner did not categorically say no, but talked about his children.  James Carville mentioning Warner as an ideal running mate on ABC’s Morning show.  And now Warner has been mentioned two days in a row in NBC’s First Read, suggesting those hounds are on the scent.

What y'all think?  C'mon now.  Let's hear from typesetters and numerologists among y'all.  It's a beautiful thing, no?

O   B   A   M   A
  W A R N E R

The recent Jesse Jackson business got highly annoying with the punditry proclaiming it was good for Obama.

Will those same pundits now proclaim that today's "Massive Attack" as described by the wires in which a US Base was sacked and as many as a dozen GIs killed is good for Obama?  Obviously not. 

The drip of US casualties from Afghanistan and Iraq has been easy to ignore.  Today's attack, which has been described as a response to last week's air strike that killed 15 civilians cannot be ignored.

Obama should careful when speaking of this later today or tomorrow.  The pundits will try to put words in his mouth.  Any hint of "I told you so" could backfire.

I still like to believe Mark Warner is on ice for Obama.
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/news/stories/2008/07/12/nunn_0713.html

But Sunday's Atlanta Journal Constitution thinks otherwise, and has a relatively extensive piece on Sam Nunn, Barack Obama's VP.
I also believe Jimmy Carter advanced Nunn for the position recently.
It would be a sensible choice.  If there is simpatico between the two, it is hard to conceive of a more logical choice (other than Mark Warner).
What are the downsides of a Obama-Nunn ticket?  In other words what ammunition does such a ticket give McCain?

Yesterday's Washington Post interview with Mark Warner has revived the Obama-Warner ticket speculation.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/07/mark_warners_blueprint_to_win.html

The interview reinforces the compatibility of Warner to Obama.  And it also shows Warner's suitability to be President.

The only catch: Warner's children.  Apparently, they are not keen on him running for national office while they are in high school.  This should be respected.  But it could be tested when Obama (who himself has two children in school) asks Warner to serve with him.  Then Warner's children will have to grow up fast.  It would make for an interesting discussion around dinner.  No doubt. NB: I am not dismissing the committment Warner has made to Virginia Democrats here.  It is a significant consideration, but Warner (like every other elected official or candidate) would have to break his committment in order to serve the nation at a higher level.  Obama is breaking away from the Senate.  Ultimately, someone (unless they are retired), will have to do the same to join the ticket.

Since I first posted on why I believed there would be an Obama-Warner ticket, there have been a couple more clues. 

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/obamas-vp-out-of-sight-out-of.php

1. Obama choosing to stand with Warner in Bristol, VA, on first campaign appearance post Clinton concession.  I think that was significant, symbolic and no accident.
2. Warner will be in New York tonight (July 9th) for a private fundraising event.  Obama will also be in New York tonight.  Warner and Obama need face time to get calibrated for the convention.

OBAMA’s VP: OUT OF SIGHT, OUT OF MIND AND OUTRAGEOUSLY OBVIOUS

I contend Barack Obama knew his Vice President the moment he announced his candidacy for Presidency.  

Unlike recent nominees, Obama has no need for gambits and is not concerned about being overshadowed.  

In 2000, the Democratic convention was on August 14-17.  Gore named Lieberman on August 8th.  6 days before the convention. (This showed tremendous indecision on Gore's part.  The choice itself reflected Gore’s narrow thinking.)  In 2004, the convention was on July 26-29.  Kerry named Edwards on July 6th.  20 days before the convention.

The 2008 convention is on August 25-28.  Barack Obama is already campaigning hard against McCain.  He will need to share the burden soon. The Hillary experience cannot linger.  Folks will need to forget Clinton, and focus instead on the race against McCain.

THE SPECULATION

There has been much speculation.  Bloggers, broadcasters and bookmakers have been rounding up the usual suspects.

I could inflict pages upon pages debunking those most often mentioned.  Instead, I will summarize the speculation briefly below.

It will not be Clinton.  There are thousands of reasons why not, most of which have been well argued here already.  What of Clinton’s surrogates? Ted Strickland looks like some character from the Love Boat.  Wesley Clark looks like one of the others in Lost.  Evan Bayh is John Edwards Lite.  Bill Nelson could help with Florida. Ed Rendell could help with Pennsylvania.  Mike Easley could help with North Carolina. But none of those characters have simpatico with Obama.  Of those not aligned with Hillary.  Jim Webb would come across as a Sexist Pig when pitted against John McCain’s running mate.  Kathleen Sebelius can’t guarantee Kansas.  Joe Biden is a blert.  Sam Nunn is no Ray Clark, though his endorsement will impress enough folk down in Georgia.  Chuck Hagel will be better employed repairing the Defense Department and disassembling the meat grinder in Iraq.  John Edwards has been told the job will not be offered to him, which is why he said he doesn’t want the job.  Claire McCaskill and Chris Dodd (my two preferred Obama surrogates) would both have Obama’s back.  Missouri and Connecticut were Obama’s two most important victories.  But Missouri’s Senate seat cannot be risked and Connecticut doesn’t add up.  (NB. Obama owes Ned Lamont, so expect Dodd to be offered a central cabinet position.)  If Bill Richardson, another blert, delivers New Mexico, and helps in Colorado and Nevada, his reward must be a cabinet position.  Richardson’s selection may also needlessly irritate some Hillary deadenders. Tim Kaine’s views on abortion would keep some key Democratic voters away from the polls.  Brain Schweitzer could put Montana in play, but with only three Electoral College votes, the reward would not be worth the risk.

SO IF NOT ANY OF THE ABOVE, WHO WILL IT BE?

You can be sure Axelrod, Obama and Plouffe had this figured out a long, long time ago. McCain's choice may give them pause, but then again, Obama may announce his choice before McCain. I expect he will and leave McCain for dust.  Obama is not going to let something this important be decided in the Dog Days of Summer.   When the announcement comes, and it will be very soon, it will be a “surprise” and "unexpected". The choice will be super appropriate and logical, even though "no one" or "nobody", as the media like to say, was expecting it.  So who will it be?

Former Governor Mark Warner of Virginia:  Out of Sight, Out of Mind and the Outrageously Obvious Choice.

Mark Warner can help Barack Obama win.  But more importantly, Mark Warner has the executive experience that will help Barack Obama manage the country effectively, and win again in 2012.  The 2012 election could be a much tougher proposition for Obama.

Warner and Obama have proven technique in winning campaigns.  Warner’s win in Virginia in 2001 was remarkable.  It is also noteworthy that Warner cut his political teeth as Campaign Manager in 1989 for Virginia's first African American governor, L. Douglas Wilder. 

Warner was a very successful businessman and a highly successful governor in Virginia, curtailed by term limits.  He got things done in the rural “red” counties of Southern Virginia.  Obama often talks of wanting to take broadband to rural America.  This is straight out of the Mark Warner playbook. And for what it’s worth, Mark Warner became known as the “NASCAR Governor”.

Both Warner and Obama are Harvard Law graduates. You can sure this has already enabled their convergence. Warner has business experience also.  Nextel trumps Staples.  Obama is the word guy.  Warner will be the numbers guy.

Warner has the classic “first to graduate college story” to tell the American people. His wife, Lisa Collis, was the first Virginia first lady to keep her maiden name.   Lisa Collis started the Virginia Women for Obama.  The Warner family will be on board with the campaign.  Michelle and Lisa, and their children Madison, Gillian, Eliza, Malia and Sasha will exude togetherness when they take to the stage in Denver.  It promises to be one of the most special of most special moments in American political history.  For real!

SO HOW DID MARK WARNER BECOME BARACK OBAMA’S RUNNING MATE?
 
Mark Warner was smart enough to sense Obama’s irresistibility and inevitability in 2006. This was two years before Edwards could see it.  Mark Warner was also smart enough to begin a campaign for Senate as a Plan B.

To recap, here are some of the major articles on or interviews with Warner when he was running for President in 2006.  Warner was then considered to be the only serious candidate to challenge Clinton.  The lengthy Matt Bai piece in the New York Times below best highlights Warner’s political and personal compatibility with Obama.

<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/12/magazine/312bwarner.html">New York Times</a>
<a href="http://dir.salon.com/story/news/lotp/2005/06/13/virginia_governor/">Salon</a>
<a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5354610">NPR</a>
<a href="http://www.charlierose.com/shows/2005/11/28/2/a-conversation-with-governor-of-virginia-mark-warner">Charlie Rose</a>

But then on Oct 10th, 2006, Mark Warner inexplicitly dropped out.

The announcement didn't add up.  I had just listened to two interviews Warner had conducted in late September on WNYC radio in New York.  Warner was running hard.

<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/12/AR2006101200510_pf.html">Washington Post</a>
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/13/us/politics/13warner.html">New York Times</a>

But Warmer left a hint. 

He said when he asked about his future,

"When and where, I don't know right now. But I guarantee you'll see me. I'm not going away from being involved in how we get our government fixed."

13 days after Warner dropped out, Obama dropped in.

No one in the media made the connection at the time.  I did, and have been pondering it ever since.  I believe something must have gone down, some arrangement made between Obama and Warner.  Warner cited the easy and obvious reason behind his decision.  He got out of the race for "family" reasons.

<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/22/AR2006102200220.html">Washington Post</a>

And why did Warner drop out? <a href="http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1545871,00.html">Time</a>
speculates, but fails to make the connection.

WHAT DOES WARNER STAND FOR? DOES WARNER COMPLEMENT OBAMA?

Can Mark Warner reach constituencies other Democrats cannot?  And does his manifesto fit with Barack’s Obama message of renewal and change?  Yes, he can.  And yes, it does.  <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/25/opinion/25mon1.html">Look to Virginia, Not to China</a><a href="http://www.theglobalist.com/DBWeb/printStoryId.aspx?StoryId=5218">Yet, Warner is a Globalist</a>


Both Obama and Warner irritate some progressives.  This is a strong sign they can win over the centrists and conservatives they need to win over in order to win the General Election.  Here's some progressives getting agitated about Mark Warner in the Prospect.<a href="http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=09&year=2006&base_name=mark_warners_antipopulism">Warner’s Anti Populism</a>

And let's not forget the Jewish vote, Warner's already <a href="http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/05/mark_warner_heads_to_israel.html">Introduced himself to the Hebs</a>

In this Primary election cycle, only a couple of commentators have given Warner any serious consideration.  The New York Observer piece is particularly incisive and outlines the mechanics of how Warner exits the Virginia Senate race.

<a href="http://www.observer.com/2008/obama-warner-scenario">New York Observer </a>

Meanwhile much of what Warner has been saying in the last year as he runs for Senate in Virginia has a national and international slant, whether it is about global business trade or energy solutions.

Here's Warner quoted on how best to deal with <a href=http://www.wvec.com/news/topstories/stories/wvec_local_031308_warner_in_Norfolk.e4ca664.html">Iran</a>

Here's Warner <a href="http://www.flathatnews.com/news/2043/warner-addresses-business-ethics">speaking on Business Ethics</a>

And yes Warner was against <a href="http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/05/m_warner_agains.html">the Gas Tax Holiday </a>

Warner is practical and principled.  He is comfortable talking new clean coal solutions with miners in Virginia, while he and wife, Lisa Collis, make significant contributions to the Nature Conservancy.  They donated <a href="http://www.nature.org/wherewework/northamerica/states/virginia/press/press3413.html">$1.5 Million to the Nature Conservancy in February 2008</a>

Mark Warner has kept <a href="http://www.wsls.com/sls/news/opinion/jay_warren_blog/article/do_we_have_a_sign_of_which_way_warner_is_leaning_in_the_democratic_primary/8515/">Mum</a> throughout this process.  This is important.  Warner hasn’t endorsed Obama, largely because he didn’t need to attract attention. When Obama makes the announcement, Warner will be neutral and better positioned to assuage Clinton supporters.

When the announcement comes, it will be classic Obama. Consider every major Obama announcement or endorsement.  There will be scant warning and many of the pundits will be caught off guard, unprepared and unable to frame the news in their neat conventional wisdom pigeonholes.

To those who question whether Mark Warner wants the position.  Remember, Warner had the ambition.  He would not have tried for the Presidency in 2005-6, otherwise.

Consider below the ambition of Obama's 97 Senate colleagues.  Note what the bookies favourite Jim Webb says here.  <a href="http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/senators-say-whether-theyd-agree-to-be-vice-president-2008-05-12.html">Webb Not Interested</a>

Warner already has the name recognition and gravitas that could practically guarantee Virginia.  Virginia has not gone Democratic in a Presidential election since LBJ won in 1964.  Virginia has 13 Electoral College votes. 

Warner is exactly the type of Vice President Obama said he wanted when he also spoke of bitterness in San Francisco some months ago. See <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mayhill-fowler/obama-says-no-to-foreign_b_95357.html">Huffington Post</a>

Here's are the two pertinent quotes from the link above.

Last night Senator Obama had a few more words on the subject of choosing a vice president.

"I would like somebody who knows about a bunch of stuff that I'm not as expert on," he said, and then he was off and running. "I think a lot of people assume that might be some sort of military thing to make me look more Commander-in-Chief-like. Ironically, this is an area--foreign policy is the area where I am probably most confident that I know more and understand the world better than Senator Clinton or Senator McCain."

"That last thing I'd say about a vice president is--obviously, you want someone who can be president and who shares a broad vision of where I want to take the country; don't have to agree with me on every particular, but shares with me a bias for opening up government, adding a rational discourse about how we're gonna solve problems, a bias towards empowering individual citizens."

Opening up government is exactly what Warner did in rural Virginia.  Exactly.

Mark Warner will be perfectly placed to replace Barack Obama in 8 years time, and in a much better position than if he were a Senator from Virginia with one term under his belt.  Warner would have the advantage of incumbency and the bounce from being a part of the successful team that changed America and realigned it with a changing world.

I can HOPE that this will be the beginning of a beautiful 16-year friendship between Obama and Warner and the people of America and the rest of the World.

P.S.

And according to Robert D. Novak, Warner’s associates said Obama is considering Warner…and if Novak said so, well, it must be true. ;-)  Read all about in the <a href="http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?articleId=4c42be55-720d-4934-bd21-5f31b3d7b254&headline=Robert+D.+Novak%3a+Mark+Warner+for+Obama%27s+VP%3f">Manchester Union Leader</a>