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The Stool Has 2 Legs


Contrary to conventional wisdom George Bush woke up this morning with more power because he has one less restraint on the Presidency.

We are about ready to watch George Bush govern without legislation and in spite of Congress. He will show that he doesn't need a rubber stamp Congress, he will just work around Congress. He will increase the numbers of executive orders, recess appointments, and signing statements that redefine legislation passed by a non-rubber stamp Congress.

With bipartisan words in public Bush will work with Cheney, Rove and other believers to continue to work to achieve what they want.   

More from Peter Wallsten, LATimes:

[anti-tax activist Grover Norquist] predicted that Bush would now govern largely through executive orders rather than working with Congress on legislation. The president could, for example, use orders to lighten the load of capital gains taxes by changing how they are calculated... 


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LOL...well George "it doesn't matter to me because I'm a lame duck" Bush decides to take Norquist's advice he will be ensuring another GOP election bloodbath in '08.

The American people sent a very clear message to the GOP and Bush...WORK WITH THE DEMS!!!  The GOP can ignore that message at their own electoral peril...because as bad as '06 was for the GOP it still could have been worse, and in '08 the dems can claim the executive branch too.

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I think, from a characterological perspective, Irish is probably right - I don't see any backing down with this president.  And in some ways, it's probably going to be an even more Nixonian couple of years, as the President becomes more isolated, more apocalyptic, and less concerned with implications of today's actions further down the road.  Will that hurt the Republicans in the long run - probably.  But on the other hand, there's one way out for the rest of the party: don't play along.  Assuming (for the sake of argument) that the Senate goes Republican, but Bush goes his own way anyway - well, anyone in the GOP who wants to keep power in 2008 will see the advantages in distance.  And this might oddly bring us full circle - if Bush plays things like this, that might just be the one thing that forces his erstwhile allies in Congress to finally stand up for the separation of powers.

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I was being too cynical. You are correct to consider a hopeful option. Note to self: starting negative and cynical is a sure route to failure.  

The self interest or national interest of Republican leaders and national legislators may motivate them to put pressure on Bush to forego some of the "go it alone" approach. They will have to be stronger than Dick Cheney to have a chance.

The other possible influence, but less likely, will be persuasion from the his personal coterie to change. As far as the public knows they are all women - Laura, Condi and Karen Hughes. Since they seemed to have been in a support role it is hard for me to imagine them changing.

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I think your original assessment was right on track. After reading most of the new Woodward book, I'm not sure that Laura and Condi have enough influence to overcome Cheney. Neither one was successful on the Rummy issue. Not sure about Karen Hughes. She seems almost invisible these days.

"...it was not always a given that the United States and America would have a close relationship." GWB, 6/29/06

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Well Karen may not be talking but she is writing. This is priceless, from WaPo:

Karen Hughes, the State Department's undersecretary for public diplomacy and public affairs, sent a long memo to chief diplomats, top deputies and public affairs officers worldwide Friday, spelling out "Karen's Rules" for working with the media.

Her memo starts:

... I want to share "Karen's Rules" in the hope that you all will have a better idea of what I expect, and how you can react.

And some of the rules in the memo:

Rule #1: Think Advocacy. I want all of you to think of yourselves as advocates for America's story each day. .. As a communicator, I know that it is important to get out in front of an issue or at best have a strong response to a negative story.... I want you out speaking to the press, on television interviews preparing and executing a media strategy, and providing our points on issues.....

 Rule #2: Use What's Out There. You are always on sure ground if you use what the President, Secretary Rice, Sean McCormack or Senior USG spokesmen have already said on a particular subject. ... You never need clearance to background a journalist ...

  Rule #4: Use Common Sense to respond to natural disasters or tragedies. You do not need to get Department clearance to express condolences...

 Rule #6: No Surprises. You should always give PA a heads-up in the event that you speak to U.S.-based media...

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here's a Hughes comment that's especially dear to me.

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Superb.  And she is a public affairs professional and Under Secretary of State...

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devon & irishkg, thank you both for those doses of Karen Hughes reality. I can't believe I missed both of those stories.

Number 11 is interesting.11. I know this is a departure from how you all have operated over the years. But forceful advocacy of US interests and positions is critical to our effort to marginalize the extremists and share a positive vision of hope for all countries and people.

I can't help but wonder which extremists need marginalizing.The truthful Arabic speaking ones, like Alberto Fernandez inside the State Dept., or all the others on the outside?

My favorite quote of the day has nothing to do with Karen Hughes. It comes from Atrios on learning that Cheney was planning to hunt in Montana:

Attention Montana Election Officials:

Cheney is nearby and he's armed.

Do either of you know which Senate will hold the confirmation hearings for Gates? The one we have now or the one in January?

"...it was not always a given that the United States and America would have a close relationship." GWB, 6/29/06

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Confirmation hearings w/ Sen Armed Services so we watch Warner or Levin, depending.

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Thanks for returning me to my natural state of cynicism. Thanks a lot...

However, while Bush may start governing more through signing statements, political appointments, and the like, I think we can at least count on his being tied up. Democratic control of Congress means both more subpoenas and potentially more forced vetos (with associated political consequences). I expect the next couple of years to be ugly, but I also believe/hope that with so much time spent in a political bloodbath, not much will actually get done.

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Better a political bloodbath than a real one?

A while back, one of my friends told me to stop kidding myself, that I was just as cynical as everybody else -- only I wasn't happy about it.  But I think I'm more comfortable in a cynic's skin these days.  So yep, back to normal. :)

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"Better a political bloodbath than a real one?" Absolutely! Or for that matter, better a real bloodbath among politicians. I've often wished that heads of state still commanded their armies from the field. If the consequence of failed policy was beheading rather than having to relocate to a university or think tank, imagine how much more thoughtful they'd be. ;)

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Good point, although back in days of yore, that doesn't seem to have stopped them much.

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The Bush Administration considers flexing its executive power over John Bolton to cut Congress out of its Constitional role of advise and consent.

The issue is how they could keep Bolton on the UN job without Senate confirmation.  The basics from Steve Clemons (of the Washington Note, who has been on the Bolton story from the beginning):

I need to consider the implications of this analysis a bit more closely -- but essentially, here are the options as I see them now.

Bolton could be recess-appointed to his current position, but he would have to work for no pay.

Alternatively, Bolton could be "nominated" to a lesser position at the United Nations -- and some are suggesting that in such a Deputy role, Bolton could be made the "Acting Ambasssador." The fact is that all of the deputy jobs that Bolton might be appointed to are 'encumbered' -- meaning people hold those positions. In addition, that appointment would also have to be submitted to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for action, which would certainly be negative.

Another bizarre but possible White House strategy is to appoint John Bolton Deputy National Security Advisor to the President, a position NOT subject to Senate confirmation, and then make him "Acting Ambassador to the United Nations."

Some believe that this is the strategy that White House General Counsel Harriet Myers is trying to cook up. However, this would cross many legal lines and certainly be litigated and challenged by a number of U.S. Senators.

When President Clinton played these games with the recess appointment and then "acting role" designation for Bill Lann Lee, the then-Republcan controlled Congress shut down the loopholes that allowed these kinds of appointment shenanigans.

John Bolton, if appointed to a non-confirmed position, does not fit one of the three allowable categories to be given an "Acting" role designation because the only role in his work history that would allow him to serve as "acting" UN Ambassador is his current role as UN Ambassador, which he received by recess appointment.

Arnold & Porter concludes that Congress did not write law that intended to give the President to circumvent the Federal Vacancies Reform Act that tied up such past loopholes.

For more, Steve notes:

....Scott Paul has posted a useful short synopsis of a legal analysis of the President's options on Bolton -- prepared by Arnold & Porter.

The detailed legal analysis is here -- and should be read carefully.

 

I am just starting the 10 page legal analysis, interesting and readable to a nonlawyer.

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This legal analysis cited by Clemons goes back to the Constitution and its clauses. It provides an analysis of the powers, the intent and the practice in US history. Excellent! 

The report conclusion:

To extend Mr. Bolton’s tenure as U.N. Representative either by a second recess appointment or an acting appointment under the Federal Vacancies Reform Act would be directly at odds with the Senate’s advice and consent function and would likely be without precedent. An acting appointment would be contrary to law.

If the President took such a controversial step, Mr. Bolton would be subject to statutory restrictions on his ability to collect salary (in the case of a recess appointment) or the length of his tenure (in the case of an acting appointment).

The far more prudent course of action would be for the President to await the confirmation of Mr. Bolton or to submit a different nominee to the Senate.

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irishkg

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