For the first time in months, Obama's job approval polling numbers for Gallup are higher than his disapproval numbers, and they have been increasing slowly for over a week now.

Rasmussen has him at -3%, up from -12% a week ago.

One interesting factoid about the congressional numbers as well, generic congressional ballot numbers for Democrats have stayed roughly the same for the last 2 years. In this "terrible year for Democrats", the average generic congressional ballot for Democrats has hovered around 40%.

What HAS changed is that Republican generic congressional ballot numbers have improved dramatically.  They have gone from about 40% to close to 50% now, riding a high peak wave of populist rhetoric and finger pointing, but summer is over guys.

I am going to make a prediction, and that prediction is this is going to be a very disappointing year for Republicans.  The Tea Party shall have their Waterloo, but they're the ones waving Le Tricolore and fighting for a dying movement.

It has long been said that Somalia has not had a functional government since 1991, but this is not strictly true.  Somalia has had many successful governments, many unsuccessful governments, and many, many more feudal lordships.  This is because since the civil war, Somalia has been less of a country and more of a territorial designation, "The States and Lordships of Somalia" would be a better moniker.

Somalia didn't so much "dissolve into anarchy" as it returned to the pre-colonial state of affairs with the Odey re-arming their clansmen with the old Somali National Army equipment and establishing a feudal fiefdom over a few towns, wells and pastures.  Somalia was only colonized for about 60 years, in some places as little as 30 years, and the social order remained in place from pre-colonial times.  The civil war simply allowed the Odey to reclaim their former authority and re-form their kingdoms.

There was in fact virtually no war in southern Somalia from 2000 to 2004, following a peace treaty between all the old factions of the civil war.  Ethiopia invaded the south a few times to attack al-Ittihad al-Islamiyya in Gedo.  When there was fighting it was essentially state warfare over resources, in that one clan fief disputed the ownership of a well or in retaliation for a murder.

It was ironically the Bush administration that stirred up the hornets' nest.  They started paying the lords of Mogadishu (each neighborhood was controlled by a particular clan with an Odey) to round up suspected terrorists on US watch lists and sending them packing to Ethiopia to be tortured and detained in basically a third world Guantanamo Bay.  The CIA organized these Odey into a US backed "anti-terror" alliance called the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT).

The only "common law" in Mogadishu was provided by local Islamic Courts, each fiefdom had its own Islamic Court and they resolved disputes based on Shariah, rather than firearms.  The local business community had grown tired of the roadblocks and checkpoints and "tolls" every time they crossed a "border" on the way to the market, the local populace had grown angry about what the ARPCT was doing, and al-Ittihad al-Islamiyya was eager to attack a US ally in their backyard, so they all basically joined forces (the Mogadishu businessmen, jihadi-wannabes, general populace, and the Islamic Courts) and formed the Union of Islamic Courts in 2006, attacked the ARPCT lords and overthrew them.

The UIC fanned out of Mogadishu and attacked the ARPCT's territories outside Mogadishu (the lords of Mogadishu were some of the most powerful Odey, who ruled vast territories outside the capital as well), and conquered fiefdom after fiefdom.  No feudal militia could stand against them, they started attacking the larger authorities, conquering Hiiraan State in August and conquered arguably one of the major and most powerful states in Somalia at the time, Jubbaland.  They moved north and threatened Puntland and started advancing towards the Transitional Government's base in Baidoa, when the Ethiopian army intervened.

The UIC was dissolved and the groups that had come together to form it went their separate ways.  The younger generation of Somalis in the UIC knew nothing of peace, they had lived with only war, and so when the elders fled into exile "the Youth" (al-Shabab means "the lads" and is more common for soccer teams in the Arab world than militant groups) remained behind and fought a guerrilla war against Ethiopia.

Ethiopia occupied Somalia for almost 2 years, and 20,000 people died in the occupation, but various rebel groups formed in areas not easily controlled.  They fought hit and run attacks at first, then slowly began attacking convoys, then patrols, then began small skirmishes with Ethiopian forces, then larger fights, then finally pitched battles, forcing the Ethiopian forces into strongholds, then they began taking over towns, then provinces, then whole regions.  Today the government Ethiopia installed in Mogadishu controls only the southwestern third of Mogadishu and nothing else.

Somalia's embattled government, which while indirectly controlling parts of central Somalia via their allies in the Ahlu Sunnah Wal'Jama'a group, in reality directly controls only a small area of the capital Mogadishu, which is the port, the airport, the southwest quarter of the city, and the presidential compound 'Villa Somalia'.

Al-Shabab, the revolutionary movement described variously as "Islamist", "al-Qaeda backed" etc has launched an enormous offensive against the government's fortified positions, which they have planned to culminate on Friday to mark the anniversary of the Battle of Badr.  The government and the AMISOM peacekeepers that keep the frail government alive have lost a number of engagements already and lost critical checkpoints in central Mogadishu, and it does indeed look like this is it for the Transitional Federal Government.

Unmentioned by many observers, who merely identify al-Shabab with the Taleban of Afghanistan, is that their most dangerous quality is not that they are conservative Muslims (most Somalis are) or that they are "extremists" (whatever that means) but that their ideals are based a lot more on the sorts of ideals that fueled the French Revolution, the utter destruction and obliteration of the established aristocracy and indeed, the existing society, in order to build a new one in its place.

Somalia is a feudal society led by the Odey, or hereditary leaders of the clans, and everything about the society is built on clan, and the Odey in turn lead the clan.  The Odey all have a variety of feudal titles, Garaad, Ugaas, Suldaan, Malak, Boqor etc all translating to "King" or "Prince", and in the past before the colonial era these princes and kings ruled a patchwork of kingdoms and principalities throughout the horn of Africa.  They retain the influence, if not the power, of the olden days, and the class system is entrenched.

Al-Shabab seeks to change all that, change it entirely.  They reject clan, they reject the authority of the Odey, indeed they blame both for the failure of the Union of Islamic Courts and for the civil war.  They don't have guillotines, but they do have guns.

It's interesting how the various techniques to "cheat" in elections always backfire, not in that people get caught or their cheating is reversed, but rather their cheating tends to affect their own voters more than their opponents, simply due to misplaced assumptions.

For instance the states that have the most extreme voter ID requirements, which supposedly should discourage young and minority voters, does the exact opposite of what it should do, in that primarily it is the elderly and uneducated who fail to bring valid ID with them to the voting booth.

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People have, correctly, equated Israel with apartheid South Africa, there are many parallels.Israel uses Palestinians as second-class citizen mass labor without voting rights, legal protection or human rights as they are non-Citizens, they are citizens of Palestine, not Israel.
Israel seizes any land they want to settle anywhere they like in Palestine by invoking one-sided legal decisions within Israel.  Israeli legal decisions are binding in Palestine but not vice versa.
Palestine, like the Bantustans of South Africa, is more of a demographic device, and less of a state.  It is an empty concession of something they want anyways, a country with no Palestinians.
Like the Bantustans, Palestine should be opposed.  The only just decision is for Israel-Palestine, where Israelis and Palestinians are equal under the law, and the property and land of the Palestinians is returned to them.  Palestinians should have the right to live in the country of their grandfather and their father, to return to their olive orchards and villages.
By demanding a free Palestine, you inadvertently demand that Palestinians give up their birthright to half of their country.  Israelis can freely settle anywhere they like, just as Palestinians can, in a united Israel-Palestine.

There's a word for when armed men take over a ship with the intent on commandeering it, taking it's cargo and sailing it away from it's intended destination; piracy.

Democrats and left-leaning Independent voters outnumber Republicans, and could make enormous gains again in 2008 on top of what they won in 2006, but they won't, and are expected not to, because they won't vote.  Voter apathy, voter malaise.
Voter surrender.  Snatch defeat from the jaws of victory AGAIN.
In 2008, you guys kicked the entire right-wing's collective posterior, you can do it again.  Vote in the primary, get a progressive and charismatic candidate in the race and get him elected.
Stop whining and go out there and kick their ass again.
A super-majority even WITHOUT the Gang of Four, let that be your rallying cry.

The whole world is in very big trouble financially. Will the bailout bill help? No-one knows.

Financial collapses tend to also cause societal collapse. The 1930s didn't just spawn 25% unemployment, it also spawned ideological fanaticism that created such gems as Authoritarian Ethnic Imperialism (Fascists! Killed millions), Nationalist Ethnic Supremacism (Nazis! Killed millions), Authoritarian Socialism (Stalinists! Killed hundreds of millions), misguided social engineering experiments (Genocide! Prohibition! Sterilization! Also killed tens of millions) so unbending that a global war (Killed tens of millions) and a 6 decade long simmering world-spanning indirect conflict (Killed tens of millions) before things finally settled down again.

Are you willing to spawn another period of unrest that will kill another few hundred million people? Is "sticking it to the man" worth that to you?

I'd do ANYTHING to prevent that from happening again.

Much as Bush has caused amongst the Progressive movement a condition that Conservatives like to dub "Bush Derangement Syndrome" (or BDS), I have noticed a strikingly similar condition in Conservatives.  I shall, in their honor, dub it "Obama Derangement Syndrome".
It is characterized by several delusions that are taken as the Gospel Truth.
Derangement Symphtom #1: Belief that Obama cannot speak intelligently or spontaneously, and can only recite a script.
This is possibly my favorite delusion, as it goes against all evidence, except the fact that, in an affectation to appeal to people who appreciate "folksy" speech, Obama has adopted an affected thoughtfulness where, instead of law-school-professor like pauses (where his point sinks in) he pretends to be thinking and "uh" and "um"s.  Conservatives have taken this as a sign of idiocy, and have thus completely let down their guard and do not consider him a threat anymore.  They therefore simply cannot understand how it is possible he can convince so many people of his ideas.  They can't get it, and it's making them lose their minds.  In their universe, leaders bark orders like a drill seargent, so the affectation of a "kitchen table voice" just seems weak.
Derangement Symphtom #2:  Obsession with phantom scandals, non-issues and vague associates.

The Conservatives can't get over the fact that the "first wave" of smears they tried to pin on Obama all either dried up from lack of evidence, backfired on them horribly, or proved to be so absurd as to be laughable.  They still believe that these are not only true, but just can't understand why the "Mainstream Media" isn't playing a special report on the gay con artist guy or the 60's rebel guy, or the dead choir boy or whatever it is they believe 24/7.  It's not that they're ridiculous, on no, it must be a shh... it's a CONSPIRACY!
Derangement Symphtom #3: IOKIYAR only exists in their little world now, and it's not fair

For years the It's OK If You're A Republican phenomenon survived just fine, and hypocrisy went unquestioned, no matter how absurd it is.  This year however, it seems the electorate actually managed to overdose in IOKIYAR, woke up in the hospital, and asked the media what the hell happened.  As if by revealed wisdom, the media rediscovered Republican hypocrisy as though for the first time.  This is why the Republicans are going nuts over the "leftwing media", as IOKIYAR doesn't seem to apply anymore, which is apocalyptic news for them.  This is especially disturbing for them as they try to pin the financial disaster on Democrats and this time, noone is listening to them.  They've been trying nonstop for 2 weeks now, but without IOKIYAR, the story just can't get off the ground, since to accept such a fact, you have to ignore A LOT of Republican dirty business and pretend it isn't there.
All in all, it's becoming a very distressing time to be a Republican.  ODS is striking many of them very hard.

The Puntland pirates strike again.  It's sort of an open secret that the US tolerates the pirates from Puntland State of Somalia and allows them to prey on shipping lanes.  I now see why.

Paying a seven-million-dollar bribe, America tries to obtain permission from Somalia seafarers to enter and observe the stolen Iranian ship.

According to the reports, to justify this measure American authorities submit that this ship contains nuclear substances and arms. 

Stressing that the local authorities of (Somalia) the Region of Puntland to try to help Americans in their measures, it said in this report:

For some reason Americans have no courage to attack the ship. 

Authorities from the Iranian Navigation Organization have announced that the cargo ship "Iranian ship which has been rented by a German company, contains chemical substances and industrial products.

Iran has rejected reports that its vessel hijacked by Somali pirates in the Gulf of Aden was carrying a 'dangerous consignment'. 

The pirates were angry because when they opened the cargo of the Iranian ship, several Somalis died, while others lost hair and suffered skin burns, Reuters quoted Andrew Mwangura, of the Kenyan-based East African Seafarers' Assistance Program, as saying. 

"It must have been a very dangerous chemical," he added, without identifying the substance. 

Iran's shipping company, however, said on Monday that the report was a 'sheer lie', adding, "The ship - Iran Diyanat had no dangerous consignment on board." 

It also dismissed allegations that the ship fetched a $200,000 payment from its owners, saying, "Despite hopeful progress made in talks with the pirates, no ransom has yet been paid to them." 

Iran says:-Mwangura claimed that the Iranian ship was supposed to be released, but now the pirates are saying the $200,000 was for facilitation only. "They want more money for the ransom." 

"Iran reserves the right to file a lawsuit against Andrew Mwangura at an authorized international court for spreading lies," Iran's shipping company said. 

It added that all 29 crew members are in good health and that the company is doing its utmost to release the bulk carrier as early as possible. 

The ship was carrying 42,500 tons of minerals and industrial products for a German firm at the time it was hijacked in the Gulf of Aden off the Somali coast on August 21. 

Several international cargo ships have been hijacked near Somalia. 

Somali gunmen reportedly hold more than 10 ships for ransom at Eyl, a lawless outpost, once a fishing village.

Here is the full text of the bill.
Or if you don't feel like reading 30 odd pages of legalese, here is a summary:

Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005 - Amends the Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act of 1992 to establish: (1) in lieu of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), an independent Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Agency which shall have authority over the Federal Home Loan Bank Finance Corporation, the Federal Home Loan Banks, the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac); and (2) the Federal Housing Enterprise Board.

Sets forth operating, administrative, and regulatory provisions of the Agency, including provisions respecting: (1) assessment authority; (2) authority to limit nonmission-related assets; (3) minimum and critical capital levels; (4) risk-based capital test; (5) capital classifications and undercapitalized enterprises; (6) enforcement actions and penalties; (7) golden parachutes; and (8) reporting.

Amends the Federal Home Loan Bank Act to establish the Federal Home Loan Bank Finance Corporation. Transfers the functions of the Office of Finance of the Federal Home Loan Banks to such Corporation.

Excludes the Federal Home Loan Banks from certain securities reporting requirements.

Abolishes the Federal Housing Finance Board.

Some nuggets from the bill's guts:
McCain had no part in constructing this bill, it was created by Chuck Hagel, Elizabeth Dole and John Sununu.  McCain tacked his name on at the last minute as a co-sponsor.
This bill would have actually replaced the existing Dept. of Housing and Urban Development with the "Federal Housing Enterprize Regulatory Agency", which would be appointed directly by President Bush, which would actually remove any semblance of independent, nonpoliticized action that the HUD had left, and created a "Mortgage Czar".  This guy would have a 6 year term, cancellable of course at the pleasure of the President.
This bill would not have solved the issue of "bundling", all it would have done is make it more difficult for someone to get a mortgage.  Subprime or not, the Mortgage Czar would have unlimited authority to define "unacceptable risk".
Several statutes are also "worse than the disease".
Contrary to what McCain is saying, it was not voted down "by the Democrats", it never made it out of its senate committee, the "Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs" ordered the bill to be reported with an amendment, but were generally favorable to the bill.  These amendments (to the "worse than the disease" aspects) were never amended and the bill died.

As I predicted over the weekend the 'Palin Bounce' has now become the 'Palin Anchor', which shall slowly drag down his numbers until November.
The reason is simple, Palin has reminded the same social conservatives who were excited by Palin that she isn't their nominee, McCain is.  Palin shall forever hence contrast a "real conservative" with what McCain is, essentially a RINO.
Additionally, the fiscal conservative wing is freaking out.  Romney (the fiscal conservative Jesus) lambasted the McCain/Palin economic policies and statements only a few days ago.
The economy is a winning issue, and Dems should push to flip the fiscal conservatives to their column.  Dare we hope for a Romney endorsement of Obama?

Dems have hit McCain on everything Dems find offensive about the man, but to be honest Obama already has the votes of people who will be offended by his pro-war, conservative agendas.
McCain has many "nose holder" conservatives in his camp who are voting for him because they see him as the "lesser evil".  Democrats don't need to win these guys over to win the election, just demoralize them enough to stay home.
And there is much to demoralize them.  MUCH.
For instance, amongst conservatives, McCain is known as "the Traitor", "Captain Amnesty", and many less pleasant nicknames.
"Captain Amnesty" is from McCain's long support of amnesty for illegal immigrants.  Conservatives HATE this policy, while Democrats are by and large indifferent to it.  Pushing ads pointing this out will not lose Democrats many votes, but will cause Republicans to literally begin fistfights.
The problem of course is that Democrats have integrity, which in politics is usually a liability.  Just as the conservatives have to hold their noses to vote for McCain, progressives will have to hold their noses to defeat him.

I'm not really sure why everyone panicked after Sarah Palin was selected as VP and McCain got a bounce.  Not only are McCain and Obama now within the margin of polling error of each other again, but while Obama hit the magic 50% figure on September 1st, McCain failed to do so with his big bounce.
Also, Obama and McCain's polling numbers are BOUNCES.  Prior to the Democratic National Convention, Obama polled between 44% and 45%.  Now he is at 45% again.  Before either convention McCain polled at between 44% and 45% AS WELL, and is now at 47%.  If the trend over the last 2 or 3 days continues, tomorrow they will be tied and by Monday Obama will be ahead again.
So let's all take a deep breath and cease the wailing and gnashing of teeth.

How much longer is the government going to keep funding and supporting Ethiopia and the pro-western administration in Somalia when they do things like this?

Joint government and Ethiopian soldiers shot dead more than 40 civilians after they dismounted them from civilian vehicles in southwestern Mogadishu witnesses and elders said.
 
It was the latest in a series in which The Ethiopian and Somali troops have killed civilians who have come too close to troops wary of attacks by rebels.
 
The troops have pulled up civilian vehicles at Arbiska area near Afgoi district ordering the passengers to drop down from the vehicles where some of the handcuffed travelers were shot dead while other were shot dead in the vehicles they were traveling.
 
"When the vehicle was stopped the soldiers, fearing an attack, arbitrarily fired on it," it said. The man died later of his wounds.
 
Dozens others were wounded in that attack those were rushed to Mogadishu hospitals.
 
No comments could be reached from the government/Ethiopian officials on this incident.