When attempting to post comments on reader blogs, I am informed after clicking "Submit" that my comment will be held for review by the author until such time as he or she deems it fit for inclusion in the thread.

Is this a new overarching comment policy? Or do I simply need to flip a switch somewhere to re-enable my unfettered contributions to reader blogs? Surely, the TPMCafe public is dying to hear my thoughts on the great issues of our time.

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — A weeklong period in which Ohioans could register to vote and immediately cast a ballot ended Monday with turnout that didn't quite match the expectations of election officials — or the campaign predictions that preceded it.

Early returns showed about 3,000 voters in Ohio's four largest counties took advantage of the disputed policy, a surprisingly low turnout to some elections officials.

The window was expected to benefit Democrat presidential candidate Barack Obama, as his campaign and advocacy groups pushed Democratic-leaning groups such as college students and low-income voters to the polls.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/O/OHIO_EARLY_VOTING?SITE=JRC&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

A bit surprising to me. Must say a bit unnerving too.

Fellow TPMers, lest we forget in light of current positive poll data, no modern political campaign can ever survive a dearth of funding.

Whether you have donated previously to Senator Obama's campaign, or if you have not yet done so, please internalize the fact that NOW is the time to act. As we rapidly approach Nov 4th, both campaigns will be pressured by smaller and smaller returns from contributions that are made later and later.

Please consider helping Senator Obama's campaign get an accurate picture of how much it has available to spend in these 'End Of Days', by contributing today!

Shameless plug: Please "recommend" this otherwise empty and uninformative post to keep it visible to the greatest number of eyeballs possible. Less than 30 days left - let's help seal the deal.

Courtesy of Jonathan Martin at Politico, the presidential campaign of Senator John McCain is suspending operations in Michigan...

"McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida.   Wisconsin went for Kerry in 2004, Ohio and Florida for Bush.

McCain's campaign didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

::Sigh::

About 2 seconds after McCain uttered the words "...Republican Guard..." in reference to Iran's terrorist group, I was on cloud nine. Game, set, match... this whole thing was about to be over. I was attempting to envision how cool Obama might play the mistake as he calmly explained "...by the way, John, I think you meant the Revolutionary Guard...."

or maybe...

"... John, when did the Republican Guard rebase in Iran? I hadn't heard...."

But alas, opportunity was wasted when he not only failed to correct McCain, but repeated the same mistake himself! Talk about the game-changer that wasn't.

Although I know it wasn't likely, I was really hoping the debate would somehow deliver the knockout blow - where Obama would put McCain down for the count once and for all. Man, what a painfully missed chance.

As many of you know, in the case of a tied vote from the electoral college, the duty of selecting a president and vice president falls to the House and Senate respectively.

At this point in the race, I am wondering if a tie is becoming more likely? Analyzing the current "swing" states, is it unreasonable to suppose the voting breaks down thusly:

Obama -
   Colorado
   Minnesota
   Michigan
   Pennsylvania. Total electoral votes: 269

McCain
   Nevada
   Montana
   Indiana
   Ohio
   West Virginia
   Virginia
   North Carolina
   Florida
   New Hampshire
   New Mexico*. Total electoral votes: 269.

*(Disclaimer: Here I give McCain a tremendous benefit of the doubt with regard to New Mexico - my analyses indicate the state will be a win for Senator Obama)

So that leaves us with Nebraska and Maine - both of which appoint their representatives to the electoral college by congressional district rather than the more common "winner take all" formula. Perhaps we can pick off one of the Nebraskan electoral voters? Start dialing those cornhusker phones now!

In all seriousness folks, re-examine the lists above. To win the presidency, our man really only needs 4 states: CO, MN, MI and PA (assuming NM is in the bag). Conversely, McCain needs 10 or more.

I will always be the last person to succumb to overconfidence, but the writing is on the wall. It may be faint, but it's there. Barring any major unforseen catastrophes, 08 is trending toward a done deal for President Obama.

There seems to be some consternation since Gallup, USA Today and others have released recent data showing Senator McCain ahead of Senator Obama in national polling.

I do believe that politics favors the paranoid, but please believe me when I attempt to reassure you there remains relatively little danger of a McCain victory despite the new data points.

Based on a model which I have devised, there quite a few available and (currently) likely paths for Senator Obama to reach the White House. Conversely, Senator McCain's footing is significantly more shaky, with critical failure points along the way. I list several of them here in increasing order of likelihood (e.g. from least likely to most likely). Senator McCain almost surely loses the election if:

He loses Missouri and Michigan
He loses Florida
He loses Virginia, Missouri and New Hampshire
He loses Ohio and Colorado
He loses Virginia and Michigan

Do not take this post to imply that your efforts to elect Senator Obama can be safely shelved - but rather simply that you shouldn't worry so much.

On the other hand, if your paranoia still reigns supreme - please consider doing something productive with it and using the states I list above to target your campaigning activities.

Thanks.

There has been some recent complaints registered by TPM readers regarding uninformed site users who somehow should "know better" than to submit multiple times the same post after receiving a server error.

While it is very understandably frustrating to see valuable posts disappear due to overzealous people who submit theirs multiple times (also understandably when they believe their posts did not go through), let's not forget the bigger picture here...

This is ALL the fault of TPM. Frankly, their entire IT department should be completely embarrassed. I don't know who is the biggest fool: Those who post over and over again, TPM, or us - for continuing to use TPM.

Ah Johnny Zogby. I just can't get enough of that guy - you know, the one who authoritatively predicted Kerry would take 310 electoral votes way back in '04.

I follow state-by-state polling shifts quite closely, and had noticed for sometime an interesting trend in Arizona - generally moving in favor of Senator Obama. While the observed movement is noteworthy and unexpected, anyone with an ounce of sense knows to summarily dismiss it because Arizona is obviously (to the detriment of Arizonans) destined to fall solidly in the McCain column.

Enter John Zogby, master of the Pay-For-Poll: he'll find you any result for just four easy payments of $99.95!

http://www.zogby.com/50state/showstats.cfm?statename=Arizona

I wonder if he also offers any Genu-wine fine I-talian leathers, or Garonteed 24K gold necklaces?

I will be one of the very last people to succumb to overconfidence. Still, can't help to find it at least a little amusing that the Washington Post (among others) seemingly continues to insist all the cards are in place for a resounding McCain victory the very same day we get something completely different from Gallup.

So, just how many times does one need to repeat something until it finally becomes true? Heidi Klum loves me... Heidi Klum loves me...

Apparently unwilling to share the MSM's affections, the often-coddled McCain campaign has put out a few videos poking fun at its perception of media coverage surrounding our good man Barack.

Blah, blah. Must....control.....media.....

Fantastic stuff.

The McCain campaign apparently selected this guy to sit on a panel with Johnny Mac, but why? After McCain loudly sings his praises, he goes on to pick apart the centerpieces of McCain's energy platform. I laughed, I cried - hoping you enjoy as much as I.

As you probably already know, our new leader of the Democratic Party - soon to be President Obama - has boldly set a new policy for DNC fundraising. Specifically, he says the DNC will no longer accept PAC or lobbyist money.

The good news: DNC-funded politicians, similarly to Obama himself, will now more firmly belong to us instead of special interest groups or big business.

The cost: We now need to put our money where our mouths are. Howard Dean has recently sent out an e-mail calling on us, private citizens, to fully fund this new way of doing business in Washington. Please, if you have a few dollars to spare, and are so inclined, speak your political mind outside the realm of TPM by donating today. Help prove to the DNC leadership and all our fellow Americans that Obama's new way of funding politics is not only viable, but correct.

Please recommend this shameless appeal so that it can remain visible as long as possible to the most readers we can get.

Many thanks.

Text of Dean's e-mail:
===============

Dear (Name Removed To Protect The Guilty ;)),

I wanted to drop you a quick note about a major policy change here at the Democratic Party.

As we move toward the general election, the Democratic Party has to be the Party of ordinary Americans, not Washington lobbyists and special interests. So, as of this morning, if you're a federal lobbyist, or if you control political action committee donations, we won't be accepting your contribution.

This is an unprecedented move for a political party to make -- one that has sent shockwaves through Washington and has turned the debate on clean campaigns upside down. We've unilaterally agreed to shut lobbyists out of the process, and are we're relying on people just like you.

Just imagine what hundreds of thousands of Americans donating $20, $30, or $50 at a time can accomplish together. Imagine the signal that it sends to anyone who looks at John McCain's political machine and the special interest money it needs to fuel every move it makes.

We have a chance to change the way business is done in this country, and we're taking the lead. Will you join us and make a contribution right now to help us elect Barack Obama?

http://www.democrats.org/nonlobbyists

I've written before about guys like Charlie Black and Rick Davis, lobbyists who are at the highest levels of McCain's campaign. But they're just the start -- John McCain and the RNC suck up lobbyist money millions of dollars at a time.

In May, McCain had his best fundraising month of the campaign, and it was directly because he refuses to shut special interests out.

But we did, and we need your help. This is an example of the kind of White House Barack Obama would run. Make a contribution to help elect him:

http://www.democrats.org/nonlobbyists

I'll be in touch later about our plans for the general election, but I wanted to let you know about our policy change right away.

Thanks,

Howard Dean

Democratic nominee Barack Obama has already show some good signs as he begins to assume the mantle of Leader of the Democratic Party. In his recent statement that he plans to keep Howard Dean as DNC Chair, he also states the DNC will no longer accept funding from questionable sources:

"We will not take a dime from Washington lobbyists or special interest PACs. We're going to change how Washington works...They will not fund my party, they will not run our White House, and they will not drown out the voice of the American people."

Fantastic! I for one am thrilled with this.

Via WP, the link is here.

The highlights:

Most of her campaign staff is being let go.
Clinton campaign officials pledge not to contest the Michigan contingent.
She will not concede the nomination.
She will, however, somehow concede that Senator Obama has enough pledged delegates to be "the nominee"?