Today's polling data makes clear that the spectre of a 269-269 Electoral College tie looms large over the 2008 presidential election.  Today's polls are generally positive for Obama - but one poll now shows McCain with a lead in New Hampshire.  As it happens, a McCain victory in New Hampshire leads us to the most plausible scenario of a 269-269 tie.  That is, Obama wins all the Kerry states but NH, adds the Gore states of IA and NM, and also CO.  Another less likely but possible scenario gives NH and NV to Obama, CO to McCain.

Yes, of course a tie would (should) make Obama the president after he is elected by a Democratic-controlled House of Representatives.  If (as I believe it should be), electoral votes were automatically awarded to the winners in each state, that would surely happen.  But the possibility exists of "faithless electors" - even just one - switching their vote to the other candidate. Who is to say that right now, some group is not investigating the individual electors in every State, looking for a person who might be intimidated or bribed into changing their vote?  While I wouldn't accuse the McCain campaign itself, surely there are fringe right-wing or racist true believers who would not hesitate to go that far.

I am not sure what can be done right now to head off this possibility - except that we should be aware of it.

For the future, I favor retaining the individual voice for each State that the electoral vote system provides.  But the people's vote cannot be allowed to be overriden by a single individual elector.  So keep the electoral vote, dump the Electoral College.

Check out the current electoral map at Real Clear Politics (where today's George Will article is linked from) to see just how possible a tie is.  Just put NH in McCain's column.

I was personally disappointed with the selection of Joe Biden as Barack Obama's running mate.  Not that he is not qualified.  But we have an election to win!  Biden is from a very small state that is part of the Democratic base which must be taken for granted if a national election is to be competitive.  More importantly, Biden's image with the national public is of one who has made two short-lived presidential runs in his own right, in neither of which he ever commanded as much as 5% support.  He is also remembered for verbal gaffes and a plagiarism controversy.  It is true that Biden would be ready to take over as President if the need were to arise, and that he brings foreign policy knowledge and experience to the ticket.  But as a political move, the candidacy falls flat.

I am sorry to say that the public seems to agree.  McCain continues to slowly creep up and has passed Obama in some polls.  Some will say that the polls are meaningless at this point.  I disagree.  By far the closest parallel to 2008 in my lifetime is the election of 1988.  We had a two-term Republican incumbent whose term was ending amid controversy, with much lower approval ratings than in earlier years.  We had a new-look Democratic candidate who held a substantial lead in early polling.  But by late summer, the margin narrowed.  And once George H. W. Bush took over the lead, it was never relinquished.

I was really moved to write this post today after reading the Letters to the Editor in today's Portland Oregonian.  Two readers sensibly expressed their desire for disaffected Democrats to get on board to defeat McCain for the obvious differences of policy and philosophy.  One Hillary supporter responded in advance to those entreaties, stating that she did not trust Obama to end the Iraq war because he had "shifted his position so many times".  The two letters that really disturbed me were those who stated their belief that opposition to Obama among Democrats (to the degree that it exists) is based on the color of the candidate's skin.  I certainly do not believe that 0% of Democrats are uncomfortable to some degree or another with the idea of a black President, biracial or otherwise.  I do believe that making that case is futile and defeatist.

Every politician knows that voters cannot be shamed into supporting a candidate - only a positive message can succeed.  The Obama campaign and the Democratic Party are presenting that positive message - so we have a chance.  Barack Obama is not Michael Dukakis. But I must say that I feel the need to psychologically prepare myself for four years of a McCain presidency - because that is the way the wind is blowing. 

John Frohnmayer, a one-time chairman of the National Endowment of the Arts under George H. W. Bush, has ended his Independent candidacy for the Oregon U. S. Senate seat currently held by Republican Gordon Smith.  Frohnmayer cited difficulty in fundraising and his lack of desire to be a "spoiler" in the upcoming race between Smith and Democrat Jeff Merkley.

Frohnmayer has traditionally been a registered Republican, but his positions in the campaign have been decidedly left-of-center, including strong support for the impeachment of President Bush.  Portland pollster Mike Riley says that Frohnmayer's decision "definitely helps Merkley" and as an Oregonian and Merkley supporter, I completely agree.  The relatively-new, 20,000 member Independent Party has publicly positioned itself as a moderate force, but I can say from personal knowledge that its founders, and current chairwoman, are quite progressive in their political views, somewhat to the left of most Democrats.

Recent Senate polls show Democrats on track for 58 Senate seats, with Oregon and Minnesota the closest races still showing in the Republican column.  A boost for Merkley is a major boost for Democrats in the quest for a filibuster-proof Senate majority.