A recent data revision by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission has revised upward--by nearly 25%--the the total number of oil futures contracts thought to be held by speculators.  According to the CFTC, as of July 15, speculators controlled 48% of the crude oil futures markets rather than the 38% they previously reported.  This is a major revision, which will likely change the way analysts and investors view recent moves in the market.  

In reclassifying investments from commercial hedging positions to noncommercial speculative positions, the CFTC has said little about the reasons behind the shift.  But the real surprise in the new numbers is that only one investor was reclassified-meaning that it appears that a single investor controlled 460 million barrels in market positions, or fully 10% of the market.  CFTC officials are not saying who that single investor is, but the recent fall in oil prices coincides fairly closely with the collapse of SemGroup LP, an energy trader which filed for bankruptcy on July 22 after losing $3.2 billion in oil futures and derivatives investments.  Here's a report from The Financial Times:

http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080805/REG/402387333/1036

Another one from the Dow Jones newswire:

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/content.asp?contentid=238244

And here's the raw data:

http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm