At this point it is clear that the Iranian election was stolen and that the regime is in serious difficulty. It may survive the immediate aftermath of the electoral fraud, but its essential authority is broken. The Supreme Leader is exposed as a Supreme Fraud.

So what should the US be doing?

Nothing.

In fact it should be doing even less than nothing, it should be making sure that Israel does nothing either.

There used to be a democracy in Iran, right up until a bunch of folk in Washington thought that they would prefer a dictator. So the CIA arranged a coup out of the US Embassy, the details of which were largely concealed from US presidents, let alone the US people for the next forty years. But the fact of the US involvement was well known to Khomeni, he was one of the rabble rousers that the CIA had paid to create the street disturbances that toppled Mosadeq.

Iranians are very sensitive about the possibility of foreign interference. Right now, Ahmedinejad must be hoping that some foreign government is going to save him with some statement that can be used as 'proof' that his opponents are foreign spies. Its just about his only way out.

Back in 1980, the revolution was starting to flag. People were getting fed up of the mullahs. There were rumblings of a second coup. What saved the mullahs was Saddam Hussein's invasion. Once the country was at war, everyone was forced to rally round the flag and the leadership.

There is going to be pressure from Lieberman and his neo-con allies to amp up the pressure on Tehran. I would not be surprised to see more talk about the necessity of a US attack. This really has to be resisted. In the run up to the election, neo-cons such as Bolton and Wolfowitz were calling for Ahmedinejad to win. They would much rather see an aggressive militarist regime in Iraq than a peaceful one, they are aggressive militarists themselves.

It looks for the moment as if the reform forces have dug in for a general strike. That is much harder for the Ahmedinejad faction to deal with than riots.