The Gallup and Rasmussen polls today just confirm what we already know.    The fall looks good for McCain.   Clinton would have a tough time beating him, and Obama's chances are even slimmer.   Obama supporters are missing the key point:the primaries don't really matter if we lose in the fall.I keep reading posts about how "Hillary can't catch Obama" etc.... which is like arguing over whether you are being eaten by an alligator or a crocodile.   It doesn't really change anything...does it?I've been involved in, and interested in, politics since I was in the fourth grade....back in the sixties.   I learned a few things along the way.    Here's what I know:
According to Gallup (and other polls) 25% to 28% of Clinton supporters indicate they will vote for McCain...if Obama is the nominee.   These numbers have been consistent.   17% to 19% of Obama supporters indicate they will vote for McCain is Hillary is the nominee.These numbers have consistent too.   So, if Obama is the nominee, we will likely lose a  more sizeable chunk of voters to McCain.    That alone could be enough to sink Obama.
We know this:   Hillary is polling better against McCain (see recent Gallup and Rasmussen) nationally AND in crucial "swing" states" than Obama is.   The Democrat must win some big swing states to win in the fall.....there is no other way mathematically.   We know this:   Obama has not won a single big swing state against Hillary....Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania being really important.   We know that a lot of Michigan Democrats are angry at Obama, and blame him for blocking the re-vote in their state.   They are unlikely to vote for him in the fall.  They see Hillary as trying to help them, and are more likely to vote for her out of gratitude.  That helps her in Michigan against McCain.   We know that voters in Florida are angry at Party leaders for not seating their delgates...and not helping them with a re-vote.   These voters could stay home or vote for McCain in the fall in protest.    Hillary could help by visiting, as the nominee, and remind them that they voted for her once, and that she returned to Florida and thanked them in person for their vote.   McCain is polling well in Florida, but Hillary has good support too.  Obama didn't win in Florida, and never visited, so he isn't likely to help with the Florida "anger factor".     So, this is what we know.Hillary is stronger against McCain according to polls.   More of her supporters will switch to McCain than Obama supporters will switch to McCain.She is stronger in the key "purple states" than Obama, and can compete there.  Neither Florida or Michigan have any reason to be angry at Hillary, so she is competitive in those states as well.  If McCain takes Ohio, Pennsylvania Florida and Texas ( and he leads in polls) he will win.   Hillary has a chance of taking some of those states, but the odds are in favor of McCain.   Obama, near as I can tell, has every single important factor against him in a match-up against McCain.    All the arguing about the Democratic nominee and super-delegates is becoming irrelevant .  Whether it's crocodiles or alligators....there is blood in the water. 
 

Mark Penn may have over-stated the case for Pennsylvania. Neither the nomination or election hinge on it. That said, the super-delegates would do well to consider the Power of Purple. It is obvious that HRC is stronger in the big purple states, and will, in all likelihood, win Pennsylvania. Does that reality equate to an automatic victory in these states in the general election? No, it does not. What it does point out is her greater strength in these swing states, and greater likelihood of carrying them. 

She has the key constituency....working whites, blue-collar hispanics and women. McCain would be difficult for HRC to beat in Ohio and Texas, but it's possible. In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida her chances greatly improve.
The problem for Obama is McCain in any of these states. I don't see Obama winning in Ohio, Pennsylvania or Texas against McCain. Florida would even be a dog-fight for him. If either Democrat could control these states, hold the traditional big blue states of California and New York, the election is half won. Setting aside the delegate and super-delegate issue momentarily... HRC looks like a much better bet. If Michigan and Florida are re-run, and Hillary wins them, that just strengthens her argument for the nomination. If not, the question remains more open. My feeling is she will win Florida, if an agreement for a re-do can be reached, and will squeak by in Michigan. For the moment, all eyes seem to be on Pennsylvania, at least for the Clinton Campaign. Obama's camp is fighting there, but they are looking beyond Pennsylvania to some extent, and for good reason.

It's a sad state of affairs when I feel I have to watch Fox News and Bill O'Reilly to get fair and unslanted coverage of the Democratic contest.    But that's the sad truth.  Am I have become very angry because of it.   So angry, that not only will I vote for Hillary, I will oppose Barack Obama.   Last fall I jumped up and down in my kitchen when Obama threw his hat in the ring, I had been hoping he would do it.   As the months went along my enthusiasm began to erode.   I watched the media, Chris Matthews, then Keith Obermann and Jack McCaffertyassassinating Clinton on a regular basis, while trumpeting Obama's virtues.   I read as the bloggers continued the assault on Hillary, not attacks on the issues, or her Senate record, but sneering personal attacks.   I watched as Black America exaggerated Bill Clinton's statements into a serious racist event, and then blamed Hillary for it.   I knew I wasn't imagining it when the Center for Fairness in the Media came out with a study proving that Hillary was being unfairly targeted and vilified.   I couldn't stomach being a part of a "rigged" contest, and with-drew from Obama's camp.   I couldn't celebrate a victory in a contest that was a farce.   I would be fine to see the contest play out, and get behind the Democrat that won, which is what I have always done...when the playing field was level.   But not now.   I will not support Obama because his minions have made me, and many other Democrats, very angry.  I will vote for McCain, and donate to his campaign as well.... as long as he conducts himself in a fair way, and the media doesn't try to "appoint" him.   I would simply refuse to vote at all in that instance.   I have too much integrity to watch the national media, cable news  and bloggers over-whelm the election process with money, propaganda and character assassination and go along with it.   Now, sadly, I watch Fox News to try to get impartial commentary on how Obama and Clinton are doing, and what they're prospects are.   I certainly can't rely on the majority of the liberal media to be fair or impartial, they have an agenda, and a dog in this fight, and it's sickenly obvious to me. 

Counting delegates and super-delegates is the source of a lot of conversation.   Who's ahead?  Can Hillary catch up? The more important question is whether delegates are spendable currency in the real contest....the general election.   Or course they are not, they exist in the vacuum of the primaries.   The super-delegates will be asked to consider look beyond the primaries, as they should, to ascertain which candidate is more likely to beat McCain. The five hundred pound gorilla is the battleground states, and two facts:  Only Hillary has won them, and the Democrats cannot win in the fall without them.   Florida, Texas, Ohio (and Pennsylvania to come) look solid for Hillary.  McCain will be tough in Ohio, but Hillary could still prevail.   I don't believe Obama could win in Ohio, perhaps not in Florida or Texas either.   If Obama can't win the key battleground states, how can he win?  New York and California are traditionally Democratic strongholds, but the big swing states could go to McCain if he faces Obama.  If the Democrats lost a few of these, they could lose the White House.   These facts are already being discussed, and with good reason.   The Red states that Obama carried against Hillary will almost certainly go to McCain.... and thats where some of his delegate lead comes from....Utah, the Dakotas etc.   Those states will leave him in the fall. The  big battleground states, which Hillary has won, arelikely to remain in her column largely due to economic concerns and her "blue collar" support.   The super-delegates have an over-riding responsibility to remember which candidate has support in the key states, the ones Democrats really need, not just who won the "most".