The Purple Gorilla in the room
Mark Penn may have over-stated the case for Pennsylvania. Neither the nomination or election hinge on it. That said, the super-delegates would do well to consider the Power of Purple. It is obvious that HRC is stronger in the big purple states, and will, in all likelihood, win Pennsylvania. Does that reality equate to an automatic victory in these states in the general election? No, it does not. What it does point out is her greater strength in these swing states, and greater likelihood of carrying them.
She has the key constituency....working whites, blue-collar hispanics and women. McCain would be difficult for HRC to beat in Ohio and Texas, but it's possible. In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida her chances greatly improve.
The problem for Obama is McCain in any of these states. I don't see Obama winning in Ohio, Pennsylvania or Texas against McCain. Florida would even be a dog-fight for him. If either Democrat could control these states, hold the traditional big blue states of California and New York, the election is half won. Setting aside the delegate and super-delegate issue momentarily... HRC looks like a much better bet. If Michigan and Florida are re-run, and Hillary wins them, that just strengthens her argument for the nomination. If not, the question remains more open. My feeling is she will win Florida, if an agreement for a re-do can be reached, and will squeak by in Michigan. For the moment, all eyes seem to be on Pennsylvania, at least for the Clinton Campaign. Obama's camp is fighting there, but they are looking beyond Pennsylvania to some extent, and for good reason.
She has the key constituency....working whites, blue-collar hispanics and women. McCain would be difficult for HRC to beat in Ohio and Texas, but it's possible. In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida her chances greatly improve.
The problem for Obama is McCain in any of these states. I don't see Obama winning in Ohio, Pennsylvania or Texas against McCain. Florida would even be a dog-fight for him. If either Democrat could control these states, hold the traditional big blue states of California and New York, the election is half won. Setting aside the delegate and super-delegate issue momentarily... HRC looks like a much better bet. If Michigan and Florida are re-run, and Hillary wins them, that just strengthens her argument for the nomination. If not, the question remains more open. My feeling is she will win Florida, if an agreement for a re-do can be reached, and will squeak by in Michigan. For the moment, all eyes seem to be on Pennsylvania, at least for the Clinton Campaign. Obama's camp is fighting there, but they are looking beyond Pennsylvania to some extent, and for good reason.




