Home | March 9, 2008 - March 15, 2008 »

Week of March 2, 2008 - March 8, 2008

Spendable currancy


Counting delegates and super-delegates is the source of a lot of conversation.   Who's ahead?  Can Hillary catch up? The more important question is whether delegates are spendable currency in the real contest....the general election.   Or course they are not, they exist in the vacuum of the primaries.   The super-delegates will be asked to consider look beyond the primaries, as they should, to ascertain which candidate is more likely to beat McCain. The five hundred pound gorilla is the battleground states, and two facts:  Only Hillary has won them, and the Democrats cannot win in the fall without them.   Florida, Texas, Ohio (and Pennsylvania to come) look solid for Hillary.  McCain will be tough in Ohio, but Hillary could still prevail.   I don't believe Obama could win in Ohio, perhaps not in Florida or Texas either.   If Obama can't win the key battleground states, how can he win?  New York and California are traditionally Democratic strongholds, but the big swing states could go to McCain if he faces Obama.  If the Democrats lost a few of these, they could lose the White House.   These facts are already being discussed, and with good reason.   The Red states that Obama carried against Hillary will almost certainly go to McCain.... and thats where some of his delegate lead comes from....Utah, the Dakotas etc.   Those states will leave him in the fall. The  big battleground states, which Hillary has won, arelikely to remain in her column largely due to economic concerns and her "blue collar" support.   The super-delegates have an over-riding responsibility to remember which candidate has support in the key states, the ones Democrats really need, not just who won the "most".
Home | March 9, 2008 - March 15, 2008 »

Hako

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