Throw the Bums Out
National Democrats, wake up. 2010 may not be a replay of 1994, but you should be worried.
The electorate is angry, with good reason. The economy is weak; unemployment is high and households are forced to make sacrifices in their standard of living. Those responsible for the economic crisis have not been, for the most part, brought down; they are richer and more powerful than ever. The world feels more dangerous and uncertain than ever, but Washington seems to be bogged down and not necessarily focused on the same priorities as Main Street.
At a rational level, many people will realize that blaming the Democrats for all the above is terribly unfair, and that it was right-wing economic policy and Republican misrule that led to many of the problems. But at an emotional level, the urge to "throw the bums out" is very strong. This is a big factor in upcoming NJ and VA races; this is the heart of Arlen Specter's problems.
The Republicans know what is happening, and they have a strategy. They will fire up their base, stoking their rage but working to focus it on Obama, Pelosi, Reid. They will target winnable races with "moderate" candidates who can distance themselves from extreme positions while still receiving strong base support; they'll count on "throw the bums out" thinking to win the votes of independents. They will fan the flames of discontent to depress turnout from liberal Dems. 2010 isn't going to be a debate about who has the best policies for the future, or who is truly to blame for our problems - it's going to be (if the Reps have their way) a referendum on the moment: are you better or worse off than you think you deserve to be?
One thing Dems need to do in order to fight back is get some new faces out there. 2010 is going to be an anti-incumbent year; if the party puts all its muscle behind the same tired old men, we are going to get hammered. So far I don't think the party has gotten this message (certainly not in Spector's case). Maybe the results in Virginia and (?) New Jersey will shake things up.
The electorate is angry, with good reason. The economy is weak; unemployment is high and households are forced to make sacrifices in their standard of living. Those responsible for the economic crisis have not been, for the most part, brought down; they are richer and more powerful than ever. The world feels more dangerous and uncertain than ever, but Washington seems to be bogged down and not necessarily focused on the same priorities as Main Street.
At a rational level, many people will realize that blaming the Democrats for all the above is terribly unfair, and that it was right-wing economic policy and Republican misrule that led to many of the problems. But at an emotional level, the urge to "throw the bums out" is very strong. This is a big factor in upcoming NJ and VA races; this is the heart of Arlen Specter's problems.
The Republicans know what is happening, and they have a strategy. They will fire up their base, stoking their rage but working to focus it on Obama, Pelosi, Reid. They will target winnable races with "moderate" candidates who can distance themselves from extreme positions while still receiving strong base support; they'll count on "throw the bums out" thinking to win the votes of independents. They will fan the flames of discontent to depress turnout from liberal Dems. 2010 isn't going to be a debate about who has the best policies for the future, or who is truly to blame for our problems - it's going to be (if the Reps have their way) a referendum on the moment: are you better or worse off than you think you deserve to be?
One thing Dems need to do in order to fight back is get some new faces out there. 2010 is going to be an anti-incumbent year; if the party puts all its muscle behind the same tired old men, we are going to get hammered. So far I don't think the party has gotten this message (certainly not in Spector's case). Maybe the results in Virginia and (?) New Jersey will shake things up.
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Liberals? The party doesn't want liberals. We're just blogging in our pajamas haven't you heard? I plan to remain in my pajamas on election day.
October 14, 2009 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink