For the Missourians on this site
When I went to the Neighborhood Team leader training at the Obama campaign office a few months ago, one of the things that the campaign trainers were at pains to express was that they did not want this team to be a merely provisional arrangement to last just until Nov 4. They wanted this to be part of an attempt to organize to effect changes in our city and state even after the election was over. With that in mind, I have already mentioned to the others on our team that once this election is over and Obama is in office, we need to start beating the bushes to find a really strong candidate to run against Kit Bond in 2010. As far as I am concerned, we cannot be rid of him soon enough, and 2010 is our next chance.
So, who do you think would be well positioned to make an effective run against him? I am listing a few possibilities below, simply to see what other folks think, but this should not be regarded as an exhaustive list, especially because I live in St Louis and have little idea about possible strong contenders from the western part of the state. If you live in KC or thereabouts and know of a democrat you think could make a strong bid against Bond in 2010, I would be interested to read about him or her.
1) Jay Nixon - the advantages of this pick are obvious as he is surely the most popular democrat in this state. The disadvantages, however, are equally obvious. For one, Nixon already lost to Bond back in 1998. More to the point, however, to take him out of the governor's mansion and turn it over to Peter Kinder would be a very steep price to pay for the good of unseating Bond. Indeed, I think it would be too steep a price to pay, but I list him simply because one cannot fail to mention him when talking about democrats to run against Bond.
2) Jean Carnahan - obviously Sen Carnahan did not fare so well against Talent in 2002, but that was a fairly Republican friendly year. On the other hand, 2010 may well be more favorable to us, and she has good statewide name recognition. Moreover, the Carnahans were all big Obama backers, so he would likely return the favor in a big way, and if Obama is riding high in 2010 (who knows at this point), his help might be a big plus. Her other disadvantage, however, is that she is 74 years old know and may not really wish to come out of retirement.
3) Robin or Russ Carnahan - the Carnahan name is a reasonably popular brand in Missouri, so perhaps one of these two would be able to capitalize on it to win against Bond. The same upside vis-a-vis Obama would also apply in the case of these two. On the other hand, I am not sure whether Robin would be up to the effort of running for senate while continuing her breast cancer treatment regime. Also, Russ Carnahan is presently a congressman from St Louis, and democrats from St Louis tradtionally have a hard time winning state-wide races.
4) Sara Lampe - on the plus side, she is from Springfield, so she has zero "big city elitist" pushback to overcome. She has also sponsored several popular bills (such as the one to allow professional scientists to teach science in high schools). Her role as the House minority caucus chair gives her some reasonable name recognition, although definitely not anything comparable to Bond.
5) Rachel Storch - to my mind, this is a very attractive choice. Storch is progressive, aggressive and very good looking. What she lacks in name recognition she would make up for in youthful energy and the contrast between the red-nosed, bloated, grey haired bond and the trim, elegant Storch would play well on television. On the other hand, if Russ Carnahan would have a hard time on account being from St Louis, she would have an even harder time of it, because she has been a very effective representative for her urban district in the state legislature, and that voting track record might be used against her in the outstate precincts.
These are just my ideas. I will be interested to see what names others might have to suggest.
So, who do you think would be well positioned to make an effective run against him? I am listing a few possibilities below, simply to see what other folks think, but this should not be regarded as an exhaustive list, especially because I live in St Louis and have little idea about possible strong contenders from the western part of the state. If you live in KC or thereabouts and know of a democrat you think could make a strong bid against Bond in 2010, I would be interested to read about him or her.
1) Jay Nixon - the advantages of this pick are obvious as he is surely the most popular democrat in this state. The disadvantages, however, are equally obvious. For one, Nixon already lost to Bond back in 1998. More to the point, however, to take him out of the governor's mansion and turn it over to Peter Kinder would be a very steep price to pay for the good of unseating Bond. Indeed, I think it would be too steep a price to pay, but I list him simply because one cannot fail to mention him when talking about democrats to run against Bond.
2) Jean Carnahan - obviously Sen Carnahan did not fare so well against Talent in 2002, but that was a fairly Republican friendly year. On the other hand, 2010 may well be more favorable to us, and she has good statewide name recognition. Moreover, the Carnahans were all big Obama backers, so he would likely return the favor in a big way, and if Obama is riding high in 2010 (who knows at this point), his help might be a big plus. Her other disadvantage, however, is that she is 74 years old know and may not really wish to come out of retirement.
3) Robin or Russ Carnahan - the Carnahan name is a reasonably popular brand in Missouri, so perhaps one of these two would be able to capitalize on it to win against Bond. The same upside vis-a-vis Obama would also apply in the case of these two. On the other hand, I am not sure whether Robin would be up to the effort of running for senate while continuing her breast cancer treatment regime. Also, Russ Carnahan is presently a congressman from St Louis, and democrats from St Louis tradtionally have a hard time winning state-wide races.
4) Sara Lampe - on the plus side, she is from Springfield, so she has zero "big city elitist" pushback to overcome. She has also sponsored several popular bills (such as the one to allow professional scientists to teach science in high schools). Her role as the House minority caucus chair gives her some reasonable name recognition, although definitely not anything comparable to Bond.
5) Rachel Storch - to my mind, this is a very attractive choice. Storch is progressive, aggressive and very good looking. What she lacks in name recognition she would make up for in youthful energy and the contrast between the red-nosed, bloated, grey haired bond and the trim, elegant Storch would play well on television. On the other hand, if Russ Carnahan would have a hard time on account being from St Louis, she would have an even harder time of it, because she has been a very effective representative for her urban district in the state legislature, and that voting track record might be used against her in the outstate precincts.
These are just my ideas. I will be interested to see what names others might have to suggest.
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Well, it looks like the odds are favoring Robin Carnahan.
January 8, 2009 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would think that one of the Carnahans, likely Robin, would be the better choice. Missouri has a nice tradition of female standard bearers, beginning with Harriet Woods. Assuming her breast cancer is in remission, and she is up to it, health-wise, I think that is an advantage in this day and age. Plus, I think the popularity of the Carnahan name overcomes the disadvantage Dems from St. Louis usually encounter statewide.
January 8, 2009 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
PS: while I'm not from Mizzourah, I have relatives in St. Louis and have been interested in the political landscape there for a number of years.
January 8, 2009 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess her health must be up to it, because it seems that she is signaling her intention to run and the scuttlebutt floating around is that Nixon is behind her.
January 8, 2009 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
With Bond retiring, which Republicans are likely to run? Is Gov. Blunt likely to be a candidate? Would he be the frontrunner? Can Robin Carnahan beat him?
I'm from Ohio, the Midwestern bellwether that didn't vote for the a-hole and the crazy lady, so I can suggest a few candidate to run against Voinovich, but I don't know too much about Missouri politics.
January 8, 2009 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink