Upstate NY: The Last Great Battle of the GOP
It seems to me that the GOP is dead, but doesn't know it yet. They are fighting as if they have a strong force behind them, but because of their reliance on God to support them, they are blinded to the reality that it actually takes people to be successful. This is the only explanation I have as to why the GOP has decided Upstate New York is a good place to drive home the Far Out Right agenda. It is a fool's errand to believe their outsider candidate, Doug Hoffman, can succeed. His failure will be the final straw that broke the elephant's back in this made-for-TV political drama, set in a place no oen gave much import. [It's kind of like Gettysburg in that regard.]
The GOP has their candidate chosen by the people of Upstate NY, in a district that has not elected a democrat since dang near the Civil War! But the Uber-Party GOP has decided that the New York selection, Dede Scozzafava, is not conservative enough to join their ranks in Congress, as they understand the meaning of that term. So the Uber-Party has this guy Hoffman, who does not even live in that district and knows nothing of their needs, suited up to challenge her as an independent. Many of the shakers and movers in what's left of the GOP are lining up to endorse him, because he loves God more then Scozzafava, which means he is detached from reality. That detachment from reality has become the hallmark of the GOP of late. [Think Saddam linked to 9/11, Saddam with WMD, what climate change?, and etc.]
Please note, when I suggest "loves God more" and "detached from reality", what I mean is that the God-test, like the neo-con litmus test, demands one declare things as factual that have no evidence in reality. [Think Creationism vs. Evolution]. For me, the love of God and detachment from reality are not always a concurrent condition. I can say that in Upstate, evolution and Christianity are not mutually exclusive. However, in the GOP of the 21st century, it seems to be so. This is a recent phenomenon.
What it seems to me the GOP is ignoring, and Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins are keenly aware, is that the Northeast is not like the South or MidWest. People are more independent, coming from arguably the birthplace of the American Revolution. This is where they really had the Tea Party. Upstate New York is the home of Fort Ticonderoga and Saratoga. People do not abrogate their independence to their pastors here like they do elsewhere, and tolerate that pastor making political speeches from the podium. They go to church to talk about God and to the pub to talk about politics! [Think Hillary doing shots in Pennsylvania] They are also highly educated, or at least respect people who are, which is abhorrent to the masses in the GOP.
The above comments are all generalizations, I know, so let's do a little fact check here. In the Northeast in 2008, every seat in Congress turned blue. It was a landslide muffled by the sound of the Great One giving a speech in Chicago. Snowe and Collins are going to be battling for their political lives when they are up for reelection and the NY-23rd will be key in their making up their minds as to how to vote on the HCR reform bill. If the Fighting 23rd goes blue, we have our 60! If it goes Red, nothing is certain, but if the Independent wins, the HCR fight may be lost this time around ... again.
The smart money will bet that the 23rd turns blue. If anyone has any idea what the Northeast values, it is their independence and these folks coming from as far away as Alaska to tell them who they favor will not sway many to their cause. It is not the cause of Upstate NY. They do not wish to have Creationism be the only explanation for this world, although they are not opposed to the Bible. The Bible is good reading on Sunday, but come Monday they have to get back to work and they know they need science and reality for that. So, as the GOP is lost in the fantasy world of the Neo-Cons and their effusive declarations of faith, Upstate NY will reassert their independence and the GOP will succumb to it's decision a few years ago to dance with the devil, Prince of Lies. It is written.
















Recommended, but the 23rd isn't exactly a typical swing district, since the right-wing splits between Hoffman and Scozzafava, and both of them have some solid support.
Scozzafava also isn't a typical "mainstream" Republican, whatever that means. She's more like the most liberal Republican on the radar, and I can't believe this particular fault-line extends much beyond her.
But I agree with you that Owens probably wins.
October 29, 2009 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
My suggestion is that the 23rd is a typical district for Upstate NY and the Northeast. That Scozzafava is a RINO confirms it has more in common with the Blue parts then not.
The "mainstream" has moved to the Right. Ten years ago, she was more a typical Republican then now. So was Snowe and Collins, one might argue.
Santorum was an anomoly in the NE, but once he departed from reality, Pennsylvania parted with him. Hoffman will either meet a similar fate, if he is elected, or he will effectively erradicate the GOP from the 23rd for a long time to come. hehehehe Gotta love it!
October 29, 2009 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not likely. If he wins now, he will win reelection. If the democrat wins now, the republican candidate will likely take the seat next year. The only hope for the democrat is to split the vote. That might happen in this special race, but not in the next election. Winning now changes nothing for the democrats. It is worse for 'real' republicans if the republican wins now, because then we will be stuck with her. I'd rather lose now and then fight a real primary battle in a few months.
October 29, 2009 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Real" Republicans? What does that mean? Does the Party decide who is a "real" Republican? Are they the same ones who decide who is a "real" American?
October 30, 2009 1:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only way the GOP would take back the seat if the Dem is elected is if they can get their heads removed from their butts and understand that the hard-line conservatism has been rejected by the populace.
October 30, 2009 1:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Robert Schlesinger, "Conservatives v. Republicans in New York 23 Race, US News and World Report, October 27, 2009
October 29, 2009 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
But because the Republicans were too liberal, the voters punished them with Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.
This is from the link. Thanks! I find it curious that the Republicans are so narcissistic they fail to admit they actually lost and continue to declare out loud that if Republicans were more like me, they would win more. It is also a curious perspective to believe Barack Obama was elected to punish the Republicans. It's really not about them. What an odd view.
October 30, 2009 1:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
it's called "paranoia"
October 30, 2009 4:28 AM | Reply | Permalink