The Palin Effect
The Bradley Effect is so last century. The media should be embarassed to keep bringing it to the fore. We've seen too many successful African-Americans rise to positions of power: Clarence Thomas; Condaleeza Rice; and Colin Powell, to name a few. That an African-American can be President should be obvious at this moment in history. I sincerely doubt enough people who felt they should vote for Obama will freeze in the voting booth because he is an African-American. However, I do feel there is reason to believe enough Republicans will freeze in the voting booth because they cannot vote for McCain with Sarah Palin as his Vice President.
There has been a lot made of the "base" loving Sarah Palin. George Bush identified the "base" at a speech before the "Haves and the Have Mores". The real base of the Republican Party are the wealthy. To John McCain this must be synonymous with Americans, because he consistently states to the American people that Obama will raise their taxes. Obama will only raise taxes on people making more then $250,000/year. maybe McCain thinks that's everybody?
It is this "base", the wealthy, who are going to hesitate at the polls. We all know, although it is verboten to discuss, that John McCain is the oldest candidate to ever seek a first term as President. We also know he is a cancer survivor. We also know that it is not all that uncommon for Presidents to die in office. An untimely death could lead to Sarah Palin becoming Commander-in-Chief. While the McCain surrogates declare that Palin has executive experience, it appears that she had no experience or interest in federal affairs until she was selected for the #2 spot.
Cram as she may, Sarah Palin cannot learn enough in the next few months to be prepared to be President of the United States, even though she herself is convinced she could do it. She will probably tell us she is ready right now. But the leaders of commerce know that her confidence does not compensate for experience or ability. If we learned one thing from President Bush, it should be that confidence alone does not make a United States President. When the "base" goes to the polls, they will probably have to admit that.




