The problem with making comparisons of this election to past elections is that the Obama campaign has taken a non-traditional approach toward which states are key. And the Obama folks have put together an unprecedented organization both "on the ground", as they say, and on line, building upon the work that Dean and Tripi did in 2004.

There is a similarity between this election and 1992 and "it's the economy".

Tuesday night VA and FL polls close at 7:00 PM. If Obama wins either, let alone both, given Obama's PA substantial polling lead, the election will likely be won.

The Carter collapse, as I understand it, had to do with the debate. At first Carter wasn't going to debate at all, then finally agreed to a debate a week before the election. The conventional wisdom was that Reagan was an intellectual lightweight, a simpleton actor. In the debate he held his own, was optimistic, and had good sound bites like, "There you go again!" I don't think a similar comeback is possible for McCain because Obama "won" all three debates decisively. The barrage of negative campaigning is wearing away at Obama's lead but not his support, so unless EVERY undecided voter goes for McCain, it's extremely unlikely that a surprise is in the works. This has been a long campaign and people are pretty familiar with the candidates and the lines of argument.