Many said Barack Obama was our first "post-racial" president.  That is how Obama is governing - but his performance is playing very differently among different racial / cultural groups.  Like it or not - race still matters in our politics.

A recent Gallup poll focused on how Obama is doing with whites, Hispanics and African-Americans.  The results?  Only 38% of whites view his performance favorable whereas 53% of Hispanics and 88% of African-American approve of the job Obama is doing.  This "race gap" in the electorate is even more clear when one compares the rate of change since the the first days of Obama's term in office.  Blacks view him as well now as they did on his first day of his presidency.  But in both the Hispanic and whites communities Obama has experienced a 20% decline in approval since the day of his inauguration.  Regardless of which of the many explanations one adheres to in explaining either the resilience of Obama's standing with African Americans or the rapidity of  his decline among whites, there is no question that these lines on the polling charts are continuing to diverge.

As of April 2009 - after the Stimulus bill passed and the bank bailout was rolled out but before the Health Care debate heated up - Obama's star was still rising for non whites - up to 92% for African-Americans and 82% for Hispanics.  At that point whites were only slightly turning away, down to 58%.  But as has been well documented over the summer of 2009 the bottom began to fall out for Obama as the health care debate heated up.  What is very clear from the Gallup data is that this precipitous decline was first and foremost a phenomenon of white flight. As of July 2009 Obama was already lost a majority of whites, down to 49% - while blacks were still rising, up to a remarkable 94% - and Hispanics were holding at 75, one point up from inauguration day.  Non-whites, mostly democratic voters in 2008, seemed to view the first six months of Obama's time in office as validating their choice.   Whereas whites, a group Obama lost 55-43 to McCain in 2008, were returning to their pre-inauguration convictions.  Obama lost the white community early - and the story of the recent Gallup polling is that they are still headed for the doors.

The narrative exiting 2009 for many white voters, fueled by Fox News and right wing radio and ineffectively countered by the White House Communications team  - was that Obama was at best a big spending liberal who was more interested in providing health care to the uninsured (more likely to be poor and less likely to be white) than in reducing the cost of health care for those who had it (less likely to be poor and more likely to be white) - and at worst a socialist bent on government takeovers of every aspect of our lives - and probably born outside of the U.S.  One has to wonder whether the most outlandish attacks on Obama either had their origins in prejudice or were cynically targeted to appeal to the prejudices of others.

By April of 2010 the stock market had roared roared back but unemployment was holding at 10%.  Tea Party rallies were held across the country for tax day featuring anti-big government chants and signs linking Obama to fascism and communism.  But in the midst of all that bad news and anti-Obama hype - Hispanics were still holding at 63% and blacks at 91%.  But whites?  They were down to 40%, below the number Obama won in 2008.  From here on out, Obama's losses were whites who had been willing to vote for him, but were clearly not liking what they were seeing in his performance as president.

The next turn in the data was over the summer of 2010, with news of the never ending gusher in the gulf dominating the headlines - and the economy still on the skids, Obama has began to lose traction among Hispanic voters.  By July of this year he had dropped below 60% for the first time, down to 54%  Whites were still on the move - in one direction - away - down to 38%.  The African-American community was down a bit from its lofty first year run in the low 90's, but was still a very high 88%.  The loss of the big lead in the Hispanic community is happening at exactly the same time that he has gone from being under 50%, but slightly ahead - to under 50% and slightly behind.  Clearly, if Hispanics continue to shift way Obama has a very big problem in 2010.

But right now, right here - Obama has experienced a collapse of white support and that situation directly impinges on the House Democrats running for re-election, many for the first time, in competitive districts in the South and West.  It is a certainty that even those who votes against the Health Care Reform bill will be tarred with the same anti-big government brush which Republicans will use against those who supported the President.  What these candidates need to find a way to do - and what Obama needs to start helping them with right now is explaining what he the Democrats have been doing for white people since January 2009 - in simple terms, using real-life examples and with data that brings it home to every district and dinner table.  If the Democrats are going to hold the House, those districts were conservative white democrats and independents voted for Obama in 2008.

And yes, it would not hurt to start talking now to blacks about what he has done to deserve their enduring, overwhelming support - and to Hispanics, to win back the doubters and maintain his majority.  Obama and the Democrats need to start speaking to the realities of the difficulties still faced by these communities.  Without their enthusiastic support, there is no question Obama will be dealing with Speaker Boehner come January. 

But even with non-white support, the Democrats in general and Obama in particular need to face up to a problem that is as old as the Dixiecrat revolt in 1948.  Many white people are angry.  They think the government is trampling all over their rights.  And they are not convinced anything Obama is doing is for them.  Harry Truman narrowly won in 1948.  But he faces a completely intransigent Republican congress from 1946 to the end of his tenure in office.

The other night I had dinner in Covington, Kentucky with colleagues from work.  These are smart and good people who were all over how anti-business and pro-government Obama was, contrasting him with Clinton whom they both viewed favorably.  Clinton, they said, got things done.  I pointed out Obama had done a lot more in 18 months than Clinton did over all eight years in office.  At first they disagreed, but eventually as I ticked off the accomplishments - health care reform, saving the banks industry from a complete meltdown, saving the auto industry from all but disappearing in this country, student loan reform, drawing down the forces in Iraq as promised - they gave in to my point.  But, they insisted, people agreed with what Clinton did.  The implication was that Obama may in fact be doing things, but not things people like.

 "He's appointed more czars than any other president, did you know that?"  Before I could counter that my friend when on to add, smiling so I would know he was joking, "Have you noticed he's black?"

If Obama wants to get anything else done while he is president, he might want to consider how is playing to my friend in Covington - not just how is doing in Palo Alto and Provincetown - and find a way to connect with good people like my friends from work. 

I know Obama is fighting for them too, but they don't.
.

Of late I detect a tendency to portray Obama as a failed president.  In our 24/7 news cycle environment when someone can be discovered as a hot new talent on the morning shows and declared a has been by the evening news - this rush to judgment is not at all surprising.  Though popularity is not synonymous with success, Obama's drop in the polls - falling recently below the all important 50% threshold - is pointed to as a clear sign that he is failing to meet our expectations.   But even if you accept the importance of polling as a barometer of American sentiment about their president, a glance at historical data makes clear this barometer has very little predictive value.  Obama's standing may be in trouble today, but that does not tell us whether his skies will be stormy or clear in the future.

Let's take a look at the history of the Gallup Daily Poll results since World War II.

Using Day 70 as a baseline, post the inauguration date but within the traditional 100 day window that is a new president's "honeymoon" period, we have data for Days 557, 1114, 1414 and 1865 for all the president's who served at least one full term since Harry Truman.

	Day 70	Day 557		Day 1114		Day 1414		Day 1865
Obama	61	45	-16
Truman	82	34	-48	39	-43	57	-25	37	-38
Eisenhower	73	67	-6	75	2	79	6	51	-23
Johnson	76	69	-7	44	-32	38	-38	49	-25
Nixon	63	55	-8	56	-7	59	-4	25	-37
Carter	67	39	-28	52	-15	34	-33
Reagan	67	41	-26	55	-12	59	-8	63	3
GHW Bush	58	74	16	44	-14	49	-9
Clinton	52	43	-9	53	1	58	6	63	19
GW Bush	59	71	12	52	-7	53	-6	37	-20

Several things jump out quickly from the data.

First, the only two presidents who saw an uptick in their popularity from Day 70 to Day 557 were the two Bushes  - each propelled to new heights by the traditional rallying round the chief executive that occurs when America goes to war.  But in the case of Bush  the elder that was his peak of and it did not even last long enough to assure a second term, exiting below 50%.  For the son, the shine lasted longer, but by Day 1865 GW was down to 37%.  So being up at Day 557 is rare, only 2 of 10 presidents in our survey made that cut, and neither of them are seen as successful presidents.

How about those who were down significantly?  Truman, Carter and Reagan each dropped more than 25%, with Truman taking the prize at a whopping 48% nosedive from Day 70 to Day 557.  And what did these plummets foretell?  Well, not much.  2 of 3 of these presidents were re-elected.  Truman recovered up to 57% from a low of 34% and won by a hair.  Reagan rose back up to 59% and won in a landslide, while Carter came up short - weighed down by the twin anchors of an economy in recession and the seemingly endless hostage situation in Iran - exiting at 34%.  Reagan left office in good shape, receiving credit for both a revived economy and strong stance against the Soviet Union.  Truman departed in the American doghouse, unable to bring the Korean War to a successful close and seen by many as too soft on the communists.

So what of those presidents who saw little change?  Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon and Clinton all saw declines less than 10%.  All four were re-elected, but Johnson and Nixon both left office in disgrace, Johnson's domestic achievements forgotten as the Viet Nam War dragged on and Nixon's deals with China and the Soviets overshadowed by the Watergate scandal.  Eisenhower left highly respected but less popular as the country entered a recession, while Clinton left office having lost a good deal of respect during his Impeachment over the Lewinsky affair, but still popular as the country surfed the last waves of the 90's boom.

Where does Obama fit?  At 16% down he has seen a much bigger decline than the Clinton group (under 10%), but not nearly as big a drop as the Reagan group (over 20%).  But Obama, Clinton and Reagan do have some things in common.  All stood between 41-45% on Day 557, with Obama at 45%, Clinton 43% and Reagan 41%.  And all three found themselves in the midst of an economic downturn that started before they term began. Looking ahead, Reagan and Clinton both rode the wave of better economic news into a second term - and both were plagued by scandals before their presidencies ended.

Now let's compare these results to a longer view, the CSPAN 2009 Survey of Presidential Leadership.   Here are the rankings for those in our Gallup study above in the 2009 survey.

                  Ranking             Day 557 (Gallup Approval Rating)

Truman            5                   34            
Eisenhower      8                   67    
Johnson         11                   69
Nixon             27                   55
Carter             25                  39
Reagan          10                   41
GHW Bush     18                   74                  
Clinton            15                  43      
GW Bush       36                   71

Clearly, Day 557 is no bellwether.  It tells us little about who gets re-elected and who does not, who fares well in his second term and who does not, or whose record stands the test of time and whose does not. 

What the data above does suggest is that popularity at any given moment is fleeting.  What matters is what comes next. A rising economic tide raises all ships - and presidents.  Wars that drag on long with no clear end in sight drag down presidents with them.  Scandals can bring a a popular president down - or in the case of Bill Clinton maybe - not.  Popular presidents can be ranked as so-so by historians and unpopular ones can be ranked among the great.
So clearly the opinion polls today have no bearing on how Barack Obama fares in 2013 and beyond.  Then what does the future really hold for President Barack Obama?  What would be his equation for success?  
If the measure is popularity it would be:

 - End the wars sooner rather than later
 - Do more to improve the economy (includes praying a lot)

If the measure is long term impact it would be:

 - Make tough sometimes unpopular decisions (including fighting unpopular wars)  - Pass major legislation that makes a difference in people's lives
Perhaps Harry Truman should have the last words on this matter:
"No matter what you do in this office there is always some poor dumb son of a bitch who doesn't like it.  So you might as well do what you think is right."

In their outstanding article - Why President Obama loses by winning - John F. Harris and Jim VandeHei - POLITICO.com  - the reporters do an excellent job of summarizing the central paradox of the Obama presidency to date - he is doing big stuff like Health Care, Financial Reform and Student Loan Reform - doing this while fighting two wars and saving the country from a depression  - and he is getting very little credit for it.  In fact, the more Obama does the more he seems to lose the voters, especially indepedent voters (Gallup poll).  For Obama supporters like me this is a maddening reality.  Bill Clinton got almost nothing done his first two years and lost the House.  Barack Obama is getting a remarkable amount done with almost no assist at all from a completely recalcitrant Republican party - and seems destined to experience similar if not equivalent repudiation in the midterms.  I am sure those inside White House find this outcome very confusing and frustrating.  I wonder if they have considered the possibility that the reason they are losing the war for public opinion is that they have not yet effectively engaged in it.  Perhaps they fighting the last war, the war of the Clinton Administration where the failing was to not get enough done - and failing to face up to the war in which they are pinned down in a crossfire from the right and left - a war for the hearts and minds of the American political center.  Will we be a center-left or center right country?

Obama's inner circle would be advantaged by listening in to the conversation my good friend Steve and I had the other day at the pool.

It went something like this:

Steve:  I am so mad at Obama's team.

Gregory:  Why?

Steve:  They don't understand we are in a war of ideas.

Gregory:   Obama is a moderate, don't they get that?  Haven't read his book?

Steve:  He's too nice.  He thought he would come in and get along with everybody. 

Gregory:  They didn't realize the Republicans would engage in massive resistance from day one.

Steve:    That's right.  These guys mean business, they are very well organized .  They know what they are doing, know how to craft a message, how to drive a story...

Gregory:  And drive the conversation.

Steve:  You got it, buddy.  Who is Obama's Michael Deaver?  

Gregory:  Yeah, he wrote the book on how to do this.  You have one story of the day and you pound away it, relentlessly and end up as the lead every night on the evening news.

Steve:  Exactly.

Gregory:  But Obama is fighting two wars, he came in what amounted to a financial meltdown...he is trying to reverse forty years of neglect of our social safety net, invest in green energy...

Steve:  True, he inherited a mess and he is doing a lot.   But he should of been our Professor in Chief.  Look at the stimulus.  He never really explains what he was doing or why.   Instead his people said - pass the stimulus and we'll keep unemployment under 10%.  Yeah, right.   These guys are elitists, they think they can just cram this stuff through.  The bottom line is people adopted the Republican talking points - the stimulus failed, the deficit soared.

Gregory:  You wanted FDR's fireside chats.

Steve:  Yeah.  Sit the country down and explain - here is what deregulation of the markets and unchecked speculation did to you and here is how we are going to fix it, you bring the country along with you.

Gregory:   He's been trying, those Saturday internet videos...

Steve:  Nobody watches them.  

Gregory:  I do.

Steve: Okay, some people do, but those aren't the ones we need to reach.

Gregory:  Give the guy a break.  When FDR was president there were what, three radio stations - and when the president came on that was news - everybody listened.  Today there are hundreds of cable channels - and then you add in the new media, the talking heads, the blogs, twitter.  Fox is broadcasting hate speech about Obama 24/7.  FDR never had to deal with that -

Steve:  I get it.  Obama has it harder.  But the challenge is the same.

Gregory:  Driving the national conversation.

Steve:  You bet.

That is the challenge for any president who wishes to succeed in changing the political landscape , shaping a national conversation in such a way that he forges a national consensus. That consensus is the legacy of a presidency, providing guardrails that define the mainstream of political thought for a generation.

Andrew Jackson may have been the first chief executive to understand both the opportunity and the responsibility of the president to mold opinion, using it as a weapon to counter the control the first Bank of the United States had over Congress.  He started a chain of newspapers across the young Republic - chartered with one mission - tear down the Bank and build up the President.  In the process of building a wave of popular opposition to the renewal of the Bank's charter, he also demonstrated the ability of the presidency to set the national agenda.

"Mischief springs from the power which the moneyed interest derives from a paper currency which they are able to control, from the multitude of corporations with exclusive privileges... which are employed altogether for their benefit." - Andrew Jackson

At  the turn of the Twentieth Century Teddy Roosevelt captured the political center of the country by waging war against the trusts - using what he referred to as "the bully pulpit" of the presidency to attack capitalism's excesses while simultaneously championing its honest exercise.

"We demand that big business give the people a square deal; in return we must insist that when anyone engaged in big business honestly endeavors to do right he shall himself be given a square deal." - Theodore Roosevelt

And, as Steve noted above - Franklin Roosevelt forged a coalition that  controlled congress for the most part for fifty years - through a process that carefully, step by step counseled his country that in some cases government is the answer.

"Competition has been shown to be useful up to a certain point and no further, but cooperation, which is the thing we must strive for today, begins where competition leaves off." - Franklin Roosevelt

An obvious common thread in all three cases above was the willingness of the president to take on financial powers centers directly, censuring those who bent the rules in their own favor at the expense of the people, while defending the those whose played straight.  In so doing they moved the country's middle class towards a progressive posture wherein American capitalism gained a moral conscience.  In each case they did so by engaging directly with the people in a national conversation that connected up the populism of the West and the energy of the emerging immigrant underclass in the cities with the values of the growing American middle class - capitalizing on both American's sense of fair play and their inherent distrust of elites.

Later Lyndon Johnson would work within a coalition that added newly enfranchised African-Americans to the groups already noted above.  The result?  A landslide election followed by landmark legislation.  LBJ then lost control of that coalition because he lost control when the conversation shifted to the Viet Nam war.

Please note that so far we have two Democrats and one Republican.  To even the score let us consider the case of Ronald Reagan. One can debate whether Reagan's military build up and apocalyptic rhetoric were the straws that broke the Soviet Union's back, one can decry the perpetual deficits that have plagued the American balance sheet since his tax cuts were signed into law - but what is inarguable is Reagan's lasting impact on our discourse.  Republicans wield language like "big government" and "tax and spend" the way they once waved the Bloody Shirt after the civil way, reminding their audience of a dreadful national nightmare from which we have successfully emerged - calling on us to be ever vigilant lest it return.

And let's face it, Reagan succeeded in changing the way we communicate politically because he was so good at it - the message always clear - the messenger keeping it simple so we could remember it.

"Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them."

"Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it"

"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

I don't know about you, but I  hear these lines all the times today.  Reagan is still framing political debate today, more than twenty years after he left office.  And notice how he did it:

• Speak directly to the American people
•  Talk over Washington, not through it

• Keep the message simple
• Big government is bad.  Taxes are bad.  In both case less = better.

•  Be clear on the enemy

• The enemy of the people for Jackson, Teddy, and Franklin above was the unchecked power of money over the governed.  The enemy for Reagan was government.

• Repeat the same message over and over

Obama has lost 50% of his support among independents because he lost control of the conversation.  The language of the health care reform debate was big government versus us, when it could have been big business versus us.  The loss of control stemmed from Obama's innate desire to bring us together - a desire which led him to both moderate his policies and his rhetoric - a desire which had him publicly touting his ability to work with insurance companies while at the same time claiming that they were the problem.  Over the summer of 2009 the message became technical, muddled and ultimately unmoving.  Meanwhile the opposition crammed a bunch of angry people into small rooms around the country shouting "No death panels!" at cowering members of Congress.  Is it any surprise they got the lead on the evening news?

It is probably too late to do much to rectify the situation before November 2010, but there is plenty of time to regroup before November 2012.   To turn this around Obama will have to use lessons of Reagan in order to undue Reagan's lasting legacy- his lasting impact on the language of our politics. 

Like Andrew, Teddy and Franklin before him Obama will need to seize control of the national conversation, clearly name our common enemy, and explain in simple language what we the American people need to do to defeat it.

And then repeat that message over, and over, and over again.

Yesterday the President held a a town hall in Portsmouth, NH in which 1,800 people respectfully listened to his remarks on the success of the Stimulus plan and the current debate underway on health care reform.  They applauded when he called for a more civil debate of the issues.  Outside the hall were many demonstrators - over 1,500.  Some were there to protest against Obama, carrying signs like "Obamacare Makes Me Sick."  Others were there to support the President, carrying signs reading "Reform Now - Insure People, Not Profits."  I was not there but I did watch the raw footage of the demonstrators shot by CBS and posted on their website.  And you can watch it too - here.  But if you happened to tune in to the CBS Evening News with Katie Couric last night what you saw instead was this. 

When I watched them back to back I was stunned.  In the first Obama supporters offer sane comments about why they support health care reform now, balancing out the Anti-Obama demonstrators who seem cranky and crazy in comparison.  In the second link - the one watched by many more Americans who tuned in to the Evening News mind you - you will find only Obama inside and anti-Obama protesters outside railing against his socialist policies.  The pro-Obama forces present are nowhere to be seen - erased.  Why?  Because they don't fit the narrative the so-called liberal mainstream media is pushing - an embattled President struggling to get his message across - under fire from an angry mob.  Putting their slant right up front, the CBS segment was entitled "Anger Management."

CBS missed a chance to inform the American people on a critical debate raging around a complex issue - letting the sounds and sights of the protest line in Portsmouth speak for themselves.  On one side a woman interviewed spoke about why the Public Option makes sense to her as a way to keep the insurance companies in check.  On the other a man relayed how he pays for his own insurance and he is not about to pay for someone who has none.  On one side a drumming group sits in front of a sign reading Health Services for Women.  On the other a cute little girl holds a sign reading "Obama lies, Grandma dies."  Powerful stuff. 

Remember wen the Evening News covered the Civil Rights struggles or the Vietnam protests?  Imagine if the Portsmouth story was reported like that.  Americans could have watched what happened in Portsmouth and drawn their own conclusions.  But that was CBS then.  This is CBS now.
 
The CBS News team's failure to report the facts of what happened in Portsmouth would be a journalistic disgrace if what they were practicing was truly journalism.  But that word seems old, something best used in the context of Morrow and Cronkite - back when reporters fought to get the story right and called it like they saw it.

So what to do we need to do?  Show up with 10 times as many protesters as the other side?  100 times?  March on Washington?  How can we hope to get our story across when CBS outdoes Fox in the real-time revision of history department.  It is easy to fall into despair.

But hope trumps fear, remember?  We learned that in the campaign.  So let's hope the MSM can get the story straight if we begin holding them accountable for doing their job.

Let's start today by writing to CBS today demanding that they run a story on the Evening News on the rising chorus of voices in support of the President's Health Care Reform initiative.

Here is the email address for The CBS Evening News: 

evening@cbsnews.com

And a sample comment you can send to the Editors there:

Last night you aired a segment called "Anger Management" which covered the President's town hall in Portsmouth, NH.  Your images and narration highlighted those protesting the President's policies but, unlike the raw footage of the event posted on your website, completely eliminated any reference to the many supporters who were also present.  Please correct this factual error in tonight's CBS Evening News in a story on the increasing numbers of people coming out in support of Health Care Reform along the lines Obama has recommended.

August 11, 2009
Dateline - Washington, D.C.

Using the cover of town hall meetings held to divert the attention of patriots opposing the Administration's efforts to destroy the world's best health care system, a secret joint session of the House and Senate was held last week entirely via teleconference.  During the session the Obamacare bill was passed via the reconciliation process, effectively socializing medicine in America.

In a move to preempt an anticipated public outcry, black helicopters were immediately dispatched from secret bases across the country - rounding up dissenters who revealed themselves by speaking out at the Town Hall meetings.  Initial reports, though sketchy, suggest they are being removed to a unknown, secure location for reprogramming.  President Obama, speaking at a Town Hall in Portsmouth New Hampshire this morning said "Resistance is futile." 

Meanwhile, millions of Americans brace today for the letter expected to go out later this week informing them that their private insurance plan had been canceled as it is no longer competitive with the Public Option.  Kathleen Sibelius, Secretary of Health and Human Services assured the nation that "there is no need for alarm as the new Health Care Commission  is standing by to make any and all decisions related to who gets what care when."

In a related story, a handwritten list of Obama critics was found this morning on the news desk at Fox Friends - apparently left by Rahm Emmanuel following an interview in which the existence of such an "enemies list" was vigorously denied by the White House Chief of Staff.  Fox News analyst Glenn Beck, whose name appears at the top of the list, commented "As it is clear now that I have been selected to be the first to face Obama's Death Panel - I regret only that I have one life to give for this great country."  A representative of Sarah Palin objected to Beck's claim, suggesting the list - which includes the former Alaska Governor's name as well, was in alphabetical order, preserving the possibility that Palin would be taken before Beck.

As The Week That Was comes to a close, let us ponder its possible significance.

• Unemployment went down (surprise, surprise), not up
• $'s spent on "Cash for Clunkers" went up and # of gas guzzlers on the road went down
• # of stories titled "Stimulus Not Working" went down
• # of non-crazies at Town Halls went up and # of Town Halls disrupted went down
• # of stories in the MSM highlighting scariness of the right wing-nuts went up
• # of stories in the MSM pushing Republican talking points went down
• # of Republican Senators willing to talk seriously about health care reform went up
• # of stories about things returning to normal in Iraq went up
  
• # of Taliban leaders in Pakistan taken out without collateral damage went up
• Obama's poll numbers went up, not down

The way I score it, the good guys - you know, the ones who prefer hope to fear and facts to hate-based fantasies - won the week. 

A turning point?  Hard to say - but remember that the stimulus money has just started to flow, the Climate/Energy bill has yet to clear the Senate, the Health Care debate is still heatedly underway, and we are still fighting two wars.

And yet President Obama is back up to 58% job approval in the latest Gallup poll.

As Darth Vadr once said, "Impressive, most impressive."

And this week made clear that Obama is not daunted by the huge challenges he faces, nor by the powerful forces arrayed against him.  No, like Teddy taking on the Trusts or Franklin assailing speculators on Wall Street -  Obama is psyched. 

This week he began to strike a more populist chord, urging on the faithful to get fired up again - doing whatever is needed to win this battle for the soul of our country.  E-mails went out calling for those who campaigned so hard for change to show up again.  And they did. 

This morning I read of the Town Halls in Washington, Indiana, and Massachusetts where respectful progressives showed up in large numbers at town halls - balancing out the shouting crazies with thoughtful questions - changing the tone of the debate just by being there and staying cool.

Until I ready these stories I admit, I had my doubts that this all would work - that change can really happen in this mixed up country of ours.  But it is -and it will.

So allow yourself to dream a bit, fast forwarding to next August, 2010:

• Unemployment is down to 7% as the stimulus is creating thousands of jobs
• Affordable health care for all Americans is the law of the land
• Our carbon footprint has stopped growing as green energy is big business
  
• And our men and women are finally leaving Iraq - in peace

Wow,  I get teary-eyed just thinking about.

What will the race-baiting, hate-spewing crazies be saying then?
More importantly, will there be anyone left listening to them?

For now, civil discourse is winning the day and progress in remaking America is being made.

And that, friends, is The Week That Was.

While the crazy Right is sending in stormtroopers posing as citizens to disrupt town halls, the crazy Left is sounding the alarm of betrayal at every sign of compromise on the part of the Democrats in Congress and the Administration.  So far this week I have written on how we need to step up and be a more active part of the solution.  Today I am focused on how we need to stop being part of the problem.

Do any of these blog titles sound familiar?

• Single Payer not even on the table
• Obama refuses to rule out bill with no Public Option
• Baucus bought by insurance companies, holds true reform hostage

Well sure they do.  Because they are almost - though not quite - every other thing one reads these days on Daily Kos, Open Left or TPM.

Why is this?  Why do we (I am a card-carrying, third generation liberal Democrat) fall into the same digital, simplistic lensing of this debate that we rightfully call out conservatives for in all the other blogs we pen each day? 

How is the Party of Just Say Not Enough any better than the Party of Just Say No?

How counterproductive is this tendency to discount those with differing points of view and to discredit those who bother to sit down and talk with them - let me count the ways:

• We shut out conservative Democrats who helped turn many red states blue in 2008, leaving them vulnerable to big-government labels thus putting their districts at risk in 2010.

• We turn off the Independents who want politicians to stop politicking and start governing

• We turn off the Republicans (remember them?) who voted for Obama because he said he would represent all Americans - old, young - black, white - rich, poor, etc. - bringing us together instead of continuing the same old politics of pulling us apart.
  

• We play into the hands of the Media who love drama and have little or no interest in reasoned debate of the issues

• Here is the real kicker - we turn off each other  - Liberals who need to be energized to make change happen at the very moment when they are most needed.  I mean come on, who wants to head down to a town hall meeting for change when single payer is not even on the table?

And when you add all these up - the loss of Conservatives, Independents, Republicans and even Liberals - you get falling poll numbers, feeding the meme that Obama has already failed, that change is not going to happen - again. 

And then Americans - with our notoriously short attention spans and our well documented tendency to turn on our heroes when they show the slightest chink in their armor - start to tune out, leaving the field to those who have no interest in the public good, only in lining their own pockets.

And then consider this: 

Are we just a tad too sure of our own infallibility?    A wee bit self-righteous perhaps?

• What if those with opposing points of view have a point?

• What if taking Single Payer off the table was the right thing to do?
  

• What if this debate is more involved than just Public Option Good - No Public Option Bad?

• What if those we accuse of selling out are doing exactly what is needed to deal with the complexity of reforming one fifth of our economy at a time when we are still emerging from the worst recession since WWII - staggering under trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see?
  

What if we start by considering the possibility that we don't have all the answers?

Now that would be different.  What would the implications of that for us, for our way of engaging in this health care debate?

We could try:

• Really listening to our opponents, taking their concerns and arguments seriously

• Cheering on Republicans still willing to work on health care

• Praising Conservative Democrats for keeping an eye on deficits

• Letting Obama know we are support his efforts to bring us together to get this done
  

• Showing up at town halls with signs like "Keep Working On This - It's Important"

Sounds hard?  Sure.  Not quite as fun as slamming the opposition and nailing the wobbly-kneed in our own camp?  Probably not.  But it is change, no doubt about it, real change, the hardest kind - change in ourselves.

"Be the change you want to see in the world." - Ghandi

Yes we can.

For those who have not been following my story this week here is a quick recap.

On Monday I wrote that I was back from being a political spectator only, sensing President Obama needed us, just like he needed us back in the campaign.

On Tuesday I reported on the  Organizing for America site which had everything an activist needed to engage in this fight and I promised to report on whether or not I actually did something with those ready-to-use tools to make a difference.

And then on Wednesday morning I put the OFA site's tools to work and:

• Signed the declaration of support for President Obama's health care plan which now has over a million signatures

• Donated money to keep the ad on the air that tells moving stories of Americans who lost their care or whose care did not cover their medical bills

• Volunteered to host a house party of house health care

• Volunteered to show up at a town hall event in support of health care reform now

• Wrote the following editorial which, thanks to the nifty OFA Letter to the Editor engine provided, was submitted to four local, three regional, and three national newspapers when I hit the SEND button:

It is an outrageous failure of journalistic standards that the Fourth Estate has allowed what could have been a serious debate addressing the deficiencies in our health care system to be hijacked by those who prefer only to score political points, deflecting attention away from the clear case for change. Our current health care system is the world's most expensive.  It is not working for employers who bear the brunt of much the spiraling costs.  It is not working for the insured, who often face bankruptcy when dealing with catastrophic illness.  It is not working for the forty-six million uninsured who have little access to the kind of basic checks up that can prevent serious and costly illnesses. This is not about taking away anybody's doctor.  This is not about some government takeover of health care.  And it is certainly not about the crushing deficits that may come if health care reform is enacted.  It is about the crushing economic burden under which we will all suffer if fundamental change is put off yet again.

So that is my report on Wednesday morning - Day 3 of my Return to the Movement.

And then the strangest thing happened yesterday afternoon.

I got this message from the President:

Gregory -

This is the moment our movement was built for.  For one month, the fight for health insurance reform leaves the backrooms of Washington, D.C., and returns to communities across America. Throughout August, members of Congress are back home, where the hands they shake and the voices they hear will not belong to lobbyists, but to people like you.

How weird is the that?I think the President needs me - needs my help - and he does.  So much so that he sends me an e-mail.   Did a president before this one ever send you a message directly asking for your help to change the country?  Well, there was, "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."  But JFK issued that call to a nation.  This message was to me. And this is the really weird part:  I heard that call BEFORE Barack sent me that message.

Well, that is my Day 3.

What did you do yesterday?  What are you planning to do today?  Every day we need to wake up saying what can I do today to make a difference.  Sound corny?  Sound over the top?  I assure you that is what the other side is doing. 

More from Barack's message yesterday:

Fixing this crisis will not be easy. Our opponents will attack us every day for daring to try. It will require time, and hard work, and there will be days when we don't know if we have anything more to give. But there comes a moment when we all have to choose between doing what's easy, and doing what's right.

This is one of those times. And moments like this are what this movement was built for. So, are you ready?

I know I am not the only one who got this e-mail yesterday - I know you all doing your part.  I know you have your own stories - communiques from the field of battle for the soul of our republic - stories of the fight to take our country back.

Let's hear them!

Update: 

The time to log in, sign up and show up is now.  The other side is taking this political fight to the streets, their town hall disruption strategy all about getting the most attention for their upside down version of reality.  We need to act with at least the same degree of coordination and show up at our town halls - and theirs - making our voices heard - now.   We now return to the revolution, which is already in progress... 

Organizing for America

Wow.  The response to my post yesterday was incredible. 

Clearly many of us are way past watching the opposition drive the debate and the mass media serving up dollops of "who's on top" cynicism.  We want change now and we realize it is going to take more than electing our representatives and leaving the rest to them.  Every day Obama and those in Congress driving for true reform are battered by networks who are motivated not by what drives up ratings and profits, not by what is needed to hold those who lie for a living accountable.  Every day those who are working to write the bills that will become the laws that we need to make health care affordable and contain carbon emissions growth are pummeled by those who are paid by the very industries that are the problem to write out true reform and write in more giveaways to those who least need them.

This is a political street fight for control of the means of persuasion and we cannot, as the saying goes, bring a knife to a gunfight.

So what do we do? 

Yesterday that question was vetted by my circle of friend and here on this blog.  The answer is right in front of us.  We do not need to create some national movement - we are already part of one.  We do not need to generate from scratch the infrastructure a national movement needs to be effective locally, regionally and nationally - we have that already.

Last night I got an email from Organizing for America and clicked on the link.  These were the words I saw there as I scanned from left to right on the page.

• "Organizing for Health Care" - with a button below that read "Take Action"

• to the right of that was "Stand with the President on Health Care"

• and below that was "Organize Locally"

There was a video entitled "Organizing for Health Care" in which Barack is right there on my screen - cheering me on, urging me to step up to this defining moment and make change happen now.

There was another video, an ad with moving testimonies from working class American making the case for change plain and simple.  The current system leaves them out.  We need a system that actually delivers health care to its people.  That ad is already playing, paid for by donations by people like you and me - not by a lobbying group - not by a PAC - all over the country.  To keep it on there another button to click to help keep that ad on the air.

Then I clicked on that Take Action button.

My choices then?

• "Stand with the President" - sign a petition urging Congress to act on Health Care now
• "Share on Facebook"
• "Tweet This"
• "Contact people near you about Health Care"
• "Write a letter to the editor"
• "Tweet your Senator"
• "Faces of Health Care Reform" in which we can share own our stories, photos and videos
• "Display your support"

It was just like the campaign!  So sophisticated - so twenty-first century - so ready-to-use...and almost anything my friends and I thought of yesterday to do was there, waiting for me - to just do it.

It was clear to me as I surfed the site that we have the tools, that the same brilliant people who made Barack's once in a generation miracle campaign a reality were still there - doing what they need to drive change in which we can believe.  What was different?  Me.  I used to be out on the old BarackObama.com nearly every day.  The last time I can remember doing it was back in December, looking for discounts on Change We Can Believe In t-shirts.

So now I am back, returning to action, and the good news the quarterbacks are already out in the huddles, calling the plays.  We just have to take the ball and run with it.

If I like direct action I can share on Facebook and get a group together a group near me to go to road trip down to Washington and sit outside Mitch McConnell's office refusing to move until the GOP is required to say something other than No to Health Care Reform.  Or maybe I could connect with people down in Kentucky to sit outside his office there or show up with signs at his speaking engagement.  Or maybe I could do both.

If I like to write (which you all have figured out by now that I do), then I can write to the editors in my local papers and send copies to my friends around the country to urge them to write their own and submit to papers in states where Conservative Democratic Senators and Representatives are wary of signing on to something as big as changing Health Care.

If I have been personally  touched by the hardships of the current system - dealing with insurance companies to get them to pay for services my plan clearly says are covered, denying services for my children they need - stories that touch on the very real difficulties family face each day trying to care for their members with physical or mental health challenges and still make ends meet at the end of each month - then I can share that story in my own words with thousands, maybe millions of my fellow Americans right there on BarackObama.com.

Maybe I will share my story.
Maybe I will write those editors.
Maybe I will connect with my network and organize for change - now.

Stay tuned friends.  Tomorrow will tell...

It's a fair question- where have you been?  I have not blogged on TPM for nine months.

I know you have not been waiting out there with baited breath for me.  There is plenty to read every day on this great site.

No, the "where have you been" of which I speak is the question my President is asking of me right now. 

Not me, particularly, but the thousands like me that were completely engaged in the battle for the White House - taking time off of work to travel across the country to knock on doors and talk to our fellow Americans about why this election mattered - taking time to make a difference by electing Barack Obama president of the United States - people like me that have now reverted back to the role of political spectator - Sunday afternoon armchair quarterbacks extraordinaire.

Oh we still have great conversations about what is going on - with ourselves - we just are not doing anything about it.    I still avidly consume the blogs  - I just don't write in them anymore.  I can't wait for the 1:00 pm release of the Gallup Poll each day - but I have not done anything in months to make those numbers move.  Not since that day last November when, with pride, I wrote here in TPM saying I was headed off to New Hampshire  -one of millions engaged in a movement to take our country back - AND WE DID! 

But one election does not make a revolution.   

And one charismatic, visionary, intelligent, determined leader. even if he is Barack Obama, does not make for good government. 

Time after time on the campaign trail our President reminded us that this was not about him, it was about us.  Now- that he needs us most, I and thousands of others like me have relinquished the field to our opponents - those who believe that the best political argument is a lie and the best government is one that serves the interests of the upper class.  We have stopped responding to those e-mails from Organizing for America.  We don't hold house parties for change.  And we have no plans to travel to D.C. and protest outside the offices of John Boehner and Mitch McConnell calling to Fix Health Care Now!

No, we sit sipping our coffee, reading the news online surprised that Obama is having a hard time making his case to the American people.  We are shocked when a story like the question of his American citizenship gets traction in the mass media, are horrified when a crazy like Glenn Beck gets away with calling Obama a racist. And we sit in our living rooms watching Rachel, Ed and Keith - starting to get impatient with Obama - wondering if he cares enough about the gay community, is serious enough about closing Guantanomo - or has the backbone to require a health care bill with a public option.   At the very moment when we are in the clear majority - we turn on ourselves, thrashing about for enemies within our own camp - questioning, dare I say, the President himself - who we suspect is betraying us, the people who put him put into power.

The question really should be, who the hell do I think I am doubting Obama's commitment to change when he has given up everything else in his life to make it happen, not for him, but for us.  His taxes will go up.  He already has government sponsored health care.  He had two bestselling books before he was President.

What Barack Obama is working for day in and day out is a better country, a more civil society, a moral criminal justice system, a robust economy, a sustainable environment, and honor and respect and justice in the world community.

Sounds like causes worth fighting for to me.  And doubt not, my friends that we are in a fight.  The forces of mammon never let go of their power willingly.  The forces of repression are always loath to let in even a little light.

Barack cannot and will not win this fight alone.  He needs US - now.

It is time to retake the field my fellow revolutionaries.

In response to their simple lies, let us tell simple truths:

 - He is not a racist, they are.
 - He is not behind a government take over of health care, they are maintaining an insurance company take over of health care.
 - He is not failing in stimulating our economy - the economy that once was feared to be falling into depression is now coming out of recession in large part because of the largest stimulus since WWII in concert with swift, bold action taken to preserve the financial system and auto industry
 - Obama is not mounting crushing deficits, he inherited crushing deficits from Republicans, had to add to them to avoid a national economic emergency and is now fighting to curtail them in the long run through addressing spiraling health care costs - one fifth of our economy.

We're back, friends, and it's time to give 'em hell - for as Harry Truman once said, we just tell the truth on them and they will feel like they are in Hell.   But to do that we have to go from reading to writing,  From writing to calling.  From calling to networking.  From networking to protesting.  Time for our voices to be heard again, shattering the lazy, hazy summer silence of the August recess, providing not just a counterbalance to the cavils of the right, but a clarion call for true, lasting change - change that begins now.

Yes we can.

Good morning!

Welcome to the day we take our country back.

If you haven't voted already, vote.  If you have not already sent a message to all you know telling them to vote, do that, then vote.

Me?

I am voting at 7:00 am here in my precinct in Massachusetts and then heading up to New Hampshire where the Obama campaign is sending me to a part of that battleground state where they still need more volunteers. 

When I called last night to ask saying I would go wherever they needed me, they did not say:

 "any place would be fine"
 " we already have enough volunteers, thanks"
 "um, not sure we will get back to you"

What they said was:

"Where do you live?"
"How far are you willing to drive?"
"How about (INSERT TOWN NAME HERE), that would be a XX hour drive?"

I said, sure.  And then they gave me the relevant contact info and that was it.

This organization is amazing.  I have been helping out on campaigns since McGovern in '72 and I have never seen anything like it.

So as you get up this morning...and you ask yourself the question "Is there anything else you can do today to help take the country back?"  The answer is yes.

If you are in a battleground state, the Obama campaign still needs you.
Go on the website, enter your zipcode for the office nearest you and call them.

If you are in a neighboring state, ask yourself the question, "How far are willing to drive for change?" then go to the website, get the contact info for an office in that state and call them.  They will tell you where to go.

For the rest of today you won't have to worry about exit polls, late breaking smears and such.   You will be too busy.  Action is the best antidote for angst.

As Senator Obama said to an seemingly endless crowd last night in his closing rally of the campaign in Mannasas, Virginia:

"I have made the argument, now it's about who wants it more."

We do.

Will we take our country back today?

Yes we will.

Thanks TPM'ers for your nominations, discussion and votes for the Eddie Award, the TPM community's opportunity to recognize journalists who are making a difference by doing their job, getting to the truth and getting it out...not just relaying the spins of the campaigns.

Our first winner is Katie Couric of CBS News.
Runners up:  Campbell Brown and Rachel Maddow
Honorable mention:  Keith Olberman

Katies impact on the election has never been clearer than this Monday morning two weeks before the election.   Over the past weekend newspapers across the nation began making their endorsements for president.  Many, in choosing Barack Obama, cited his selection for VP as a reason to question McCain's judgment.  McCain's choice of Palin was also referenced by Colin Powell in his endorsement of Obama.  Before Couric's respectful but remarkable interview  - Governor Palin  was an exciting new figure on the American political scene, firing up the Republican base and brining out the crowds for her candidate.  But then a week of Couric interviews drip, drip, dripped into the national consciousness - and Palin was revealed for what she is, someone not qualified to be a heart beat away from the presidency.

Once again, our first ever Eddie goes to the anchor of the CBS Evening News - Katie Couric.  Got her blog using the link below and leave a comment, thanking her for making a difference through her professionalism, persistence and dedication to accuracy in reporting.

http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/couricandco/main500803.php?category=Katie_Couric_s_Notebook&dir=couricandco

You got to hand to to Fox, try as they might to drive their phony stories the truth will out once in a while - even on their flimsy excuse for a "News Channel."

This morning's headline were simply delicious:

Obama Seeing Blue in Red States
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/17/obama-hopes-turn-reliably-red-states-blue/

The Republican Noise Machine were ready to push the "It's tightening" meme BEFORE the last debate, but the polls did not cooperate - providing a different story - "McCain down by double digits!".  Well here we go again...

MSNBC's Morning Joe has picked up the "It's down to 2 point!" narrative that Drudge started with a banner headline yesterday based on Gallup's dubious "Traditional" Likely Voter screen - one of three Gallup scenarios and - SURPRISE - the only one showing it that close - and made it the focus of the program's first hour.  Good for Andrea Mitchell who, when asked by Willie if she thought the race was that close, said many people are saying that but then noted that McCain is flying across the country defending Red states in which he is behhind.

Funny how Joe never mentioned Gallup's same poll has Obama up 6 with both Registered Voters and their new expanded likely voter screen (the one based on what they think will happen in this race).  Talking points to fight the fiction that it is that close after the jump.

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