The Republican Noise Machine were ready to push the "It's tightening" meme BEFORE the last debate, but the polls did not cooperate - providing a different story - "McCain down by double digits!".  Well here we go again...

MSNBC's Morning Joe has picked up the "It's down to 2 point!" narrative that Drudge started with a banner headline yesterday based on Gallup's dubious "Traditional" Likely Voter screen - one of three Gallup scenarios and - SURPRISE - the only one showing it that close - and made it the focus of the program's first hour.  Good for Andrea Mitchell who, when asked by Willie if she thought the race was that close, said many people are saying that but then noted that McCain is flying across the country defending Red states in which he is behhind.

Funny how Joe never mentioned Gallup's same poll has Obama up 6 with both Registered Voters and their new expanded likely voter screen (the one based on what they think will happen in this race).  Talking points to fight the fiction that it is that close after the jump.

Facts to Fight The Fiction that "It's a 2 point race!"

• The headline is based on the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll Traditional Likely Voter Screen that has Obama 49, MCain 47
• Among Registered Voters in that same poll Obama leads by 6, 49-43
• In that same poll using their new expanded Likely Voter screen Obama leads by 6, 51-45
• So 2 of 3 versions of the Gallup Poll indicate a 6 point lead, not 2
• The Gallup Expanded Likely Vote screen is not a mathematical abstraction - it is based on what the poll participants tell the pollster about how likely they are to vote
  
• RS2000 Obama 52, McCain 42 - a 10 point lead
• Zogby Obama 48.7, McCain 43.7 - a 5 point lead.  
• The RCP average this morning is at Obama 49.5, McCain 42.7 - a 6.8 point lead
• The RCP average includes several polls that are NOT daily tracking polls such as the CBS News/Washington Post poll that gave Obama a 14 point lead but does NOT include the RS2000 poll

So how close is the race?  Nate at 538.com based on his very sophisticated polling model thinks we are looking at a 7 point race.  TPM'ers, a 7 point race at the national level equals landslide.  And 7 does not equal 2.

Now, none of this means the race is not tightening.  In fact, it probably is.  It nearly always does at the end of a campaign.  The RS2000 poll showed McCain having his best night Wednesday, closing to within 6 in their poll.  And Obama is making it clear he is not taking anything for granted with his "Don't get cocky" speech yesterday reminding his supporters how they lost New Hampshire in the primaries when the polls showed him up the day of the primary.  So NOBODY on Obama's side should be sitting comfortably now. 

Now is the time for action. 
Now is the time to close the deal. 
And now is not the time for panic - driven by the Noise Machine's very selective use of data to drive its wish fulfillment narrative.