You got to hand to to Fox, try as they might to drive their phony stories the truth will out once in a while - even on their flimsy excuse for a "News Channel."

This morning's headline were simply delicious:

Obama Seeing Blue in Red States
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/17/obama-hopes-turn-reliably-red-states-blue/

The Republican Noise Machine were ready to push the "It's tightening" meme BEFORE the last debate, but the polls did not cooperate - providing a different story - "McCain down by double digits!".  Well here we go again...

MSNBC's Morning Joe has picked up the "It's down to 2 point!" narrative that Drudge started with a banner headline yesterday based on Gallup's dubious "Traditional" Likely Voter screen - one of three Gallup scenarios and - SURPRISE - the only one showing it that close - and made it the focus of the program's first hour.  Good for Andrea Mitchell who, when asked by Willie if she thought the race was that close, said many people are saying that but then noted that McCain is flying across the country defending Red states in which he is behhind.

Funny how Joe never mentioned Gallup's same poll has Obama up 6 with both Registered Voters and their new expanded likely voter screen (the one based on what they think will happen in this race).  Talking points to fight the fiction that it is that close after the jump.

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Remember the Texas debate back in the primaries - Hillary and Barack sitting side by side?

Many considered it to be Obama's strongest performance in the debates.

Well, that is the format tonight.

Some questions:

• How will that play into the audiences perception of the candidates?
• How will help/hurt McCain if he decides to launch an Ayers-war again the democrat?
• How will Obama use it to help close the deal with the American people?

Some things to consider:

• Obama seems more comfortable with McCain than does McCain with him
• It is harder to look your opponent in the eye and ask why he "pals around with terrorists" when he is sitting right next to you
• The very closeness of the participants tends to enforce a certain civility
• The fact that they are sitting side by side tends to level the players as equals

So how could Obama put all that together? 

Accepting the fact that being at the same level means he does not have to try so hard, Obama can relax, turn on the charm and smile at McCain, the moderator and the audience once in a while - appreciating things his opponent says with which he agrees to demonstrate his bipartisanship - using the same smile later but adding a slight shake of his head when he pivots to say tough things like calling out McCain for saying things that are not true or reminding Americans we just can't afford four more years of the same.  And then he can lean forward, look into the camera and get serious, speaking in short sentences directly to the American people  - explaining why things are so hard for them now and specifically how he and they will have to make tough choices and work hard together to turn the country around.

He does that and it is game - set - match Obama, regardless of what McCain might do.

So, all in all I would say the format will matter and it means advantage Obama. 

The question is will the he take full advantage of it.

We are getting a great response today on the TPM Eddie Award for Journalistic Accuracy. 
Based on your helpfully pragmatic input we will run this for the week, providing updates throughout, with a winner to be announced each week on Friday.  Nominees so far include Campbell Brown, Katie Couric and Rachel Maddow. 

Nominees so far...

Campbell Brown of CNN for "So what if Obama were a Muslim or an Arab?"

Katie Couric of CBS News for her interviews of Sarah Palin

Rachel Maddow of MSNBC for her interview with David Frum  on her own show

Comments on the nominees?  Other heroes of the fourth estate we should consider honoring?

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Based on the positive feedback yesterday on the post praising CNN's story on McCain's misleading statements about Obama's tax plan, we, the TPM Community will be granting each day an award for Accuracy in Journalism named for Edward R. Murrow which, to distinguish it from the many other awards named for the legendary dean of CBS News, we are calling The Eddie.

Use this thread to offer your nominations throughout the day.  We will close out nominations toward the end of the afternoon and award to the organization or individual who, for today at least, met the standard for journalistic accuracy that is...The Eddie.

Definition of accuracy (from Dictionary.Com):

The condition or quality of being true, correct, or exact; freedom from error or defect; precision or exactness; correctness.

Our criteria for the award: To be awarded to journalists or journalistic organizations who consistently demonstrate in the performance of their duties that they value educating the public over generating higher ratings or sales and that they are willing to take the heat from the campaigns by calling out departures from fact versus taking the easy route and merely repeating a lie they have heard.

Some suggested guidelines:

• Checking on what a candidate says about their opponent and including the truth along with the accusation
  
• Holding candidates responsible for what they said yesterday, not just reporting what they say today
• Pointing out in interviews with a candidate to their face when a statement is false, misleading or and/or more true of their own campaign than that of their opponent

Questions:

• Can an Eddie go to the same organization or individual in successive days?  Yes.
• Can we go a day without an Eddie if no one meets the standard?  Yes.
  

Obama got out in front on the Republican Noise Machine's carefully orchestrated ACORN voter registration fraud dust up. 

Check out the link for the article in the Washington Post:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/14/obama_comments_on_acorn_contro.html

CNN got it right today on one of the key issues in the campaign - who is telling the truth about taxes.  McCain included in his economic message today another shot at Obama mocking Barack's claim to be a tax cutter:

"He's an eloquent speaker, but even he can't turn a record of supporting higher taxes into a credible promise to cut taxes. What he promises today is the opposite of what he has done his entire career," McCain said at a rally in Blue Bell, Pennsylvania...McCain repeated his claim that Obama voted 94 times to raise taxes.

Rather than pass on McCain's indictment of Obama's voting record without question, CNN turned it over to its FACT CHECKER, embedding a link to their analysis in middle of the article on McCain's speech:

Key findings:
-53 were votes on budget resolutions or amendments that "could not have resulted by themselves in raising taxes," though many "were clear statements of approval for increased taxes"
-23 were against proposed tax cuts
-11 were to increase taxes on people making more than $1 million a year, to help fund programs such as Head Start, school nutrition, or veterans' health care
-Seven were "for measures that would have lowered taxes for many, while raising them on a relative few, either corporations or affluent individuals."
- The total includes multiple votes on the same measures.

Annenberg says a close look at the record reveals that Obama has "voted consistently to restore higher tax rates on upper-income taxpayers but not on middle- or low-income workers."

Verdict:
Misleading. McCain's summary ignores the fact that some of the votes were for measures to lower taxes for many Americans, while increasing them for a much smaller number of taxpayers. A nonpartisan examination also finds that the 94 total includes multiple votes on the same measures and budget votes that would not directly lead to higher taxes.

Nailed!

CNN went on to describe Obama's stated policy on taxes:

Obama's tax plan would cut taxes for most taxpayers, but raise them for the wealthiest. The largest increases would be on the top one-percent of earners, according to analysis by the Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan research group whose staff of experts includes former economic advisers to the White House and Congress under both Republicans and Democrats.

We often decry the MSM with good reason for their willingness to regurgitate without question the nonsense coming out of the McCain campaign allowing the charges to stick while they wait to see what the Obama campaign will say, reporting on the fight but not the facts.  But today CNN - the self-proclaimed most trusted name in news - but more importantly the most watched - got it right, holding McCain's claim up to the light for the better look the American people deserve when they choose a president.

Keep up the good work!

Dick Morris, former Republican aide to Bill Clinton, architect of the infamously successful approach to governance known as Triangulation, was manager of Clinon's 1996 re-election campaign until he was publicy cast off for letting a prosititute listen in on the President's calls.  Most in the Clinton team were happy to see him go - viewing Morris as a kind of Dark Lord of the Sith who whispered seductive things about the power of the Dark Side to a President that seemed mysteriously swayed by them.

Fast forwarding to 2008, Morris was curiously mildy pro Obama during the primaries  - just long enough to see his old boss Bill's wife Hillary shut out.  Now he spends his time on Fox and NewsMax bashing Obama - spouting the McCain party line about the Senator from Illinois' radical past and his sinister associations - expressing concern for the dangers these pose to the Republic were Barack to win.

So with that background in mind, I ask you, fellow TPM'ers, what is up with Dick Morris' assessment of the current electoral map:

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?promo_code=6BD7-1

He is granting Obama 396 electoral votes to 110 for McCain, a landslide of Reaganesque proportions, ceding not only swing states like OH, NC and VA to Barack, but also conceding West Virginia - and catch this  - Tennesse and Arizona?

...Republican bastions like South Carolina, Georgia, and Louisiana are now no better than tossups.  If the election took place this week, it would be a wipeout of major proportions. Even McCain's home state of Arizona has to be classified as leaning toward Obama. McCain, as of now, can be certain of carrying just eight states with a combined total of only 36 electoral votes.

All this, Morris claims, is based on his reading of the polls.

Three questions:

1. Are there really polls that would in anway justify this GOP - End of Days scenario?
2. Assuming no to Question 1, is there any other data base from which  Morris can extrapolate to get this forecast?
3. Assuming no to Question 2, what is this guy's angle?  Is he trying to scare out the vote?