September 8, 2008, 11:03AM
Rasmussen is just out with their daily tracking poll and it too shows McCain ahead...by ONE point. We will see shortly what Gallup's daily tracking poll offers for further guidance in characterizing the state of the race, but the Rasmussen result paints a very different picture than the McCain +10 message in the USA/Gallup likely voters numbers released this morning, suggesting it is back to where we were pre-convention, i.e. tied.
But meanwhile, as those on the Left process the reality that the Palin Pick may not pan out to be the disaster for McCain it originally appeared to be, may even be the game changer McCain hoped it would be, the key is to stay calm, keep breathing and Don't Panic!
Remember Napoleon said "Morale is worth a division." His reasoning? If folks believe they have a chance, they do, even if the odds against them are daunting. Conversely, those who think all is lost are easy prey, even if their position is quite tenable. We are talking mind games here, true, but mental toughness is oft the difference between winning and losing. Panic also leads to counter-productive self-flagellation that only tends to drive down morale further. This is NOT an argument for inaction. It IS an argument for action that springs from the kind of clear thinking that is not possible when clouded by needless negativity.
So as I believe Obama is a strong leader, he is probably saying now to his campaign is something like: "Okay let's say it - McCain made a nice play. Let's give him that. We didn't see this one coming. Now instead of reacting to them, getting caught up in their game plan, what are WE going to do to get the initiative back? Remember, we are the movement that represents REAL change in this race, so let's make this next move a bold one."
To help them out on this one, what are YOUR suggestions for some game changers that can reframe the narrative to Obama's benefit?
September 7, 2008, 12:33PM
Here is the first results where all three days of polling follow the Palin speech at the RNC:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday, September 7, shows the race for the White Houseis tied.
In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted afterSarah Palin’s acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so doesJohn McCain. When "leaners" are included, it’s all even at 48%. Tracking Poll results are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.
This past Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August (seerecent daily results).
Seems like the difference is we are seeing a big swing in the women's vote which peaked for Obama on Tuesda at +14 but is now down to +6
Obama still holds the issues edge which is why the McCain campaign has stressed this year will NOT be about issues:
Forty-two percent (42%) of voters say that economic issues are most important this year and Obama holds a 34-point advantage among these voters.
Twenty-four percent (24%) of voters say the national security issues are most important. Among these voters its McCain by 39.
Be interesting to see if the numbers are down AFTER McCain's speech which was even more widely viewed than Obama's. For now, McCain's favorables are up:
Overall, McCain is now viewed favorably by 58% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 56% (see trends).
Palin is viewed favorably by 58% of voters including 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of her. Biden earns positive reviews from 48% of voters.
Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Obama voters now say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate while 17% are primarily voting against the other candidate. For McCain, those numbers are 65% and 28% respectively. Before the Republican convention, just 54% of McCain voters were voting enthusiastically for him rather than simply voting against Obama.
If we really are at a draw, the conventions a wash, it will be interesting to see who can force "the narrative" in their favor and take the lead.
Obama is clearly not letting the post convention period be a "wait and see" period, hoping it will shake out in his favor. He is out there hitting hard, getting press coverage offering quotable sound bites that attack the core messages of the RNC. He is also doing interviews with O'Reilly and Stephanopolous, highlighting his availability to face tough questions at a time Palin is still in "being briefed" mode.