Showdown in Iran: Ahmadinejad Defies Khameni
As the post-election protests by reformists simmers in the background, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has openly defied Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, setting the stage for a major political battle among the conservatives who hold power.
Last Friday, Ahmadinejad appointed Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei to be his vice president. Mashaei, the father of Ahmadinejad's daughter-in-law, is seen as a moderate. Hard line conservatives despise him for a statement he made last year in which he declared Iran to be "a friend to the nation in Israel and the United States." Though he clarified the statement by saying that he had been referring to Israeli and American citizens, not to the governments, conservatives still fiercely protested the recent appointment.
Yesterday, Ayatollah Khamenei sent a letter to Ahmadinejad telling him to dismiss Mashaei. Since Khamenei has final authority in political affairs, Iranian experts assumed that the matter was finished, and there were rumors that Mashaei would resign.
But today, Ahmadinejad surprised the experts by insisting on retaining Mashaei. His defiance supports the view of some analysts that Ahmadinejad's tainted re-election amounts to a quiet coup by his allies in the powerful Revolutionary Guard at the expense of the clerical elites who have ruled Iran since the revolution.
The situation is particularly perplexing because though Mashaei may be moderate, the Revolutionary Guards are seen as hard-liners who crushed the elections protests, whereas the clerics have been divided, and many reluctantly followed Khamenei's lead in approving the election results. At this point, it does not seem that any outsiders fully grasp what's going on inside Iran's government or how the struggle will play out. The outcome of this confrontation could transform the government in Iran, for better or for worse.
For more on Ahmadinejad's power grab, read this NYT article from last month.
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Cross posted as usual at dagblog.com. You can subscribe to all my posts via RSS feed or email.
You know Genghis, Americans like to root for a side or a team. I want the Twins to win and I want the dems to decimate the repubs forever.
The latter dream is almost religious extremism.
By the by, there are so many parallels here between the ultimate religious dream of these two main figures in Iran and CStreet and Robertson and all our religious leaders. One country seeks universal Muslim control of everything. The other seeks universal Christian Control of everything.
Which side to we root for in Iran? My initial reaction is usually whatever side Bolton wishes for --- well that has to be the enemy.
which side is Ahmad on? which side is the Ayatollah on? Which side was the runner up on?
What do the millions of Iranis seeking change really wish for?
July 22, 2009 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey DD, I'm not sure if you're intentionally exaggerating, but however malignant America's evangelical politicians may be, their objectives don't even compare to Iranian-style theocracy.
Imagine Pat Robertson as the unelected leader of the U.S. (for life) with the ability to veto any bill, reject any candidate for office, and appoint whomever he wants to the courts, whose rulings are based on a constitution derived directly from the Bible. That's Iran today.
The likely alternative, a full military dictatorship, is even worse. The only hope is that the reformists are able exploit the fissure and undermine both the clerics and the military. That's who you want to root for, but it's a heck of a long shot.
July 22, 2009 11:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, to see the snake turn in on itself would be the dream outcome and the protesters to take advantage of their distraction. But here's the deal. Khamenei has discredited himself by advocating the acceptance of the election outcomes. He has proven he is not interested in the truth. He is catering to his "puppet". The "puppet' is armed and dangerous and has cut the strings. Ahmadinejad is not a puppet. He is in control and has his Revolutionary Guard taking potshots at protesters. There is nothing Khamenei can do. He might have admonished Ahmadinejad for the brutal slaying of innocents. It's probably frowned upon somewhere in the Koran, but he did not. We're not seeing a coup happening. It's already over,
July 23, 2009 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting. Thanks, G.
July 23, 2009 2:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with the thrust of enghis's comment but Iran doesn't really follow the teachings of Mohammad like Robertson's followers don't turn the other cheek. Islamic theocracies do not come from the Koran, Mohammad was not a fan of government. Just like the “Onward Christian Soldiers” crowd these religious nuts have turned their book 180 degrees around.
Most importantly Khamenei and Ahmadinejad are now seen as illegitimate to Iranians.
July 23, 2009 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink