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Change What?


Back in the primary, pundits and critics wondered how Obama could deliver change while keeping his promise of bipartisanship, for the Republicans would surely block progressive initiatives. As Obama selects experienced insiders for his administration, pundits and critics now wonder how he can deliver change with a staff whose ideas have shaped past administrative policies. Some assume that Obama will not try or will not be able to fulfill his promises of change. Others assume that to Obama, "change" is an empty word, useful for getting elected but irrelevant to his governing plans.

These apparent inconsistencies only appear to be paradoxical if "change" is taken to mean policy change. But the only dramatic policy changes that Obama promoted during his campaign were Iraq withdrawal, rollback of the Bush tax cuts, healthcare policy, energy policy, and foreign policy. While these proposals would certainly represent a change from the Bush administration's practices, they hardly constitute a wholesale change in the way Washington does business. Obama's policies and priorities will most likely resemble Clinton's with some variations and corrections.

So where is the change? When Obama spoke of change during the campaign, he rarely referred to radical progressive policy changes. Rather, as was apparent in his original Blueprint for Change, he repeatedly promised two changes from "politics as usual":

  1. Bipartisan unity
  2. Good government practices, particularly government transparency

If we understand "change" in that context, then Obama's plans really do differ from the past two administrations, both of which were characterized by opaque, top-down decision-making and fierce partisan battles. Moreover, such changes are not only consistent with good bipartisan relations and experienced counsel; they depend on them.

As Obama fills out his administration, it has taken a familiar form. The Obama administration looks very much like the Obama campaign: practical, non-ideological, and competent. Like a well-designed engine, it is meant to be smooth, quiet, efficient, and effective. Meticulous vetting procedures and full disclosure of conflicts of interest will help avoid the controversies and cover-ups that dogged the Clinton administration. An emphasis on competence over loyalty and ideology will help avoid the Iraq-Katrina-Medicare bungles of the Bush administration.

In short, Obama intends to run technocracy, a government characterized not by ideology, partisanship, or politics, but by practical effectiveness, a government that the American people, both red and blue alike, can believe in. And that would most certainly be a change.

Whether he'll be able to deliver such change remains to be seen, but he's off to a good start.

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Cross posted at dagblog.com, a blog we can believe in. If you haven't read Articleman's personal reflections on Obama's election, I highly recommend it.


83 Comments

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I think you nailed it exactly.

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It was change from the Bush years that we were going after. Obama represents that, without a doubt. He will not govern the way Bush did, in either tone or policy. That change is necessary because Bush really damaged the country.

That Obama has Clintonites on his team is not a problem. He was never really arguing that what we needed was radical change from Clinton-style policies. The argument was that he'd more effectively deliver change from the Bush era. Obama and Clinton largely wanted to get us to the same destination, but Obama convinced the voters that he'd be the better driver.

Now I see people fretting about the influence the Clintonites will have on Obama. Don't worry, it cuts both ways. Obama will have an effect on them too.

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Chris -

Well thought out and I completely agree. However, it will be interesting to watch the comments.

(rec'd)

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Bring 'em on. I've got a button.

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Obama and Clinton largely wanted to get us to the same destination

I really can't agree, destor. I saw Hillary as old-school politics, including the traditional Dem Washington crowd, while Obama was going to be a breath of fresh air -- opening up government to the large untapped resources the country had.

It's possible to have a bi-partisan cabinet without tapping the same people who have been deeply involved in the government for the past 20 years -- and that includes tapping the "usual suspects" on the GOP side as well.

When I go to Washington, it's frustrating that most people there really don't know what it's like in the rest of the country; they have simply lived too much in the bubble.

It would be nice to have true citizen-politicians again. One of the more attractive things about Obama for me was precisely because he spent so much time in the trenches. The stories you hear on the campaign trail don't really get at the same issues as living it day to day.

It's disheartening that in a country of over 300 million people, a few hundred are the ones tapped over and over to "run things". Not only do they not bring in new ideas, they become slowly removed from the real day-to-day issues that the rest of us face.

There are literally thousands of senior academics and business people that could be asked to fill these positions. We should do it.

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Second!

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Genghis,

Side note since we don't have private channels on TPM (a feature that would be very awesome):

I recommended this post in spite of your ad for another poster on another blog site. Perhaps I would have felt differently if you didn't run the other blog site or the other poster didn't regularly post here.

I applaud your efforts in building a new website -- it's not easy. Perhaps it's the wild west that Hilary and I talked about on another thread. But you are doing the equivalent of walking around with a sandwich sign advertising Gimble's in the middle of Macy's stores. And please do note the seasonal reference.

Trying to post here in an attempt to run discussion from TPM over to your site is a bit... Republican.
;-)

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Promoting an outside blog in the comments is against TPM policy, and I abide by that, but I've been told that links in the thread are acceptable. I'm a longtime member who, imho, has something to contribute here. I don't post here to spam, don't post unrelated material, and don't post frivolously. I post here because I enjoy the discussion (serious and humorous) at TPM, and I almost always participate in my threads. I appreciate your rec, but if it bothers you that I linked to Articleman's dag post--one of his best--at the end of my thread, you're free to ignore the link or to ignore my posts entirely.

I really don't want to hijack this thread on this matter, so I'm going to bow out of further discussion, but you're welcome to contact me at xenghis@gmail.com. It's quite easy to create an anonymous email account if you wish to protect your identity.

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G. I'll be brief. Promise. Blog here, blog there, blog 17 places - I'm happy. Link to others, or not, that's cool. I often value what you write, and how you do it. Keep on, keepin' on, and good luck with all the ventures. Just sayin' it now, because I don't think I've said it before.

That said, i probably disagree with this post! ;-) q

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Aw... Quinn... that wasn't my point.

And you know it.

In fact, my comment had nothing to do with Genghis's ability to blog.

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Yeah, I know, CT. It's just I usually razz Genghis or argue about something, and I just wanted to say that I like his stuff, like it that he's writing more (at whatever site), and actually think - though I've only read his stuff since May - that he's getting consistently better. Clearer. Which is damned rare. (Though his posts ARE a mite long, from time to time.....)

And few people know that Genghis has had to overcome time spent in some educational institutions that pretty much guaranteed he entered his mid-20's in functional illiteracy, for instance. So it's a double accomplishment. (Sorry G, couldn't resist.) ;-)

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Though his posts ARE a mite long, from time to time.....

Never in the history of pots has a blacker pot hurled such an accusation at a kettle.

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Quin: At least he understands the concept of paragraphs. They make his posts seem quite manageable.

(You're welcome, Genghis.)

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Parawho?

I'm just working on reducing the number of commas I use per sentence. Apparently, the TPM software inserts an automatic period after your 7th comma.

Bastards.

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State school or Ivy League? They're equally bad but for different reasons...

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Thanks, Quinn. I didn't know that you were a softy beneath that cynical pose.

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Long time and very valued member. Your blog was a spin-off of your work here, not the reason you came. You've won many faithful followers for your excellent writing!

Carry on!

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I don't want to go all over the internets to find what Ghengis has to say. I like that he cross-posts. Don't stop! Oh, and now I go to dagblog and see other stuff, but I don't go regularly so far, so don't give Genghis shit about cross-posting.

I have dutifully read to many thoughtless blogs here, and I am not going to continue to fire back at them (as I have too many times in the past).

It is worth the effort to graze past the chaff to find the brilliant and thought-provoking posts that crop up very often here. Genghis is one, and if anyone shoos him away I will be totally pissed! Oh, NO! He posts the same thing at two sites! It makes us get the vapors!! WTF? Although I do get the idea that this should not be a free advertisement site for everyone's website, I think that limiting the links to the original post ought to take care of that problem.

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Hey, CVille, be C-vil! YOu should go back and re-read my comment. You can also read what I wrote to AA.

I never said that saying "Cross-posted at ..." is a bad thing. If I thought it was, I would have said it to innumerable posters who cross-post.

Please go back and re-read what I wrote. I have no problem with your disagreeing with me -- but please disagree with what I stated!

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Looks like this thread got sidetracked after all. Oh well, there's no controlling threads. CT, I appreciate your discretion in not continuing the discussion until others took it up. And I appreciate the warm encouragement from other members. Thank you.

For the record, I would like to note that Articleman is no longer posting at TPM for personal reasons.

Also, in reference to the discussion of front page TPM links, I note that Josh also once linked to one Articleman's posts - at dagblog. One of the many reasons that I think Josh is awesome.

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And I (sincerely) appreciate, as always, your sophistication in reading intent with comments. Your comment read me perfectly. I've always figured you and I would enjoy each other's company debating things over alcohol in a pub.

Or at least I would. ;-)

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Like it or not, I have found that current reality on this site is that a lot of the reader blog entries that are of publishable quality are cross-postings from the writer's own blog. Other examples: "Fly on the Wall," "Zachary Karabell."

I haven't seen management show the least bit of negativity towards this situation. Matter of fact, I've seen evidence of quite the contrary: I have watched as TPM management names put such cross-posting bloggers on their own following lists, including that popular bete noire of many members, David Seaton. When the new emphasis of blog function was first promoted, it was explained as giving the reader bloggers a chance to get a larger audience. It was also said that they might be featuring links to such blogs on the main page. The only example of that I saw was quite some time ago, when "Fly on The Wall," was praised by Josh Marshall with a link on the front page, and once again, Fly promotes his own blog on all his own entries.

I think they just aren't getting the quality they expected except from people who also have their own blogs. Which would make sense, because it would be rare to find someone with a talent as a writer who had not considered starting a blog. In any case, the way I understood it, the whole raison d'etre of making this more of a "reader blogger" place was initially given as giving good writers a chance to develop a bigger audience, just the opposite of an attitude of running a protectionist turf. And I think Genghis in his response to you is being far too circumspect than he needs to.

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AA:

First, I don't believe you have a blog, but I find you a worthwhile, quality blogger. Ditto for numerous others here.

Second: re-read my comment. I'm not saying that Genghis shouldn't say his post was cross-posted at his blogsite.

I referred to something else: he essentially advertised another post from his own blogsite.

True, people link to other sites all the time (e.g. NY Times, etc.) However, there are two differences:

a) The posters usually go on to comment about these blogs and those blogs become a source of discussion.

b) They are not blogs where the poster has an interest in driving up traffic.

Lastly, he is referring to a post by Articleman, a person who has regularly blogged at TPM.

Now if Articleman wanted people to see his post, he could have posted the blog at TPM and had the standard "cross-posted at" at the end of his blog. However, then there would have been a discussion at TPM and -- again -- it seems that the goal is to primarily want that traffic (and discussion) to move over to their site.

These are the reasons why his final lines bothered me. It had nothing to do with the "Cross-posted at..." bit. Maybe if those guys bought ads from TPM, it wouldn't bother me as much.

(Genghis, I know you appreciated all these points a priori.)

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Artappraiser:

I'm glad to learn that my posts past muster, but I do feel obliged to correct you on one crucial point: I don't have an independent blog. That shameless bit of self-promotion at the bottom of my posts links to my TPM page. On occasion, I've been fortunate enough to have some large blogs (e.g., Sullivan's Daily Dish or Obsidian Wings) link back to my posts, and when readers arrive here who are unfamiliar with TPM Cafe, I like to provide them with links and instructions. This is the only place I publish my posts, and I'm grateful for the opportunity it provides.

That's not intended as a reflection on other bloggers. I agree that many of the most interesting and distinctive voices around here cross-post their thoughts, and our community is richer for it. But I certainly don't want anyone to think I'm using TPM to drive traffic to some other, non-existent site.

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Your comment is dis-spiriting. I have no interest personal blogs- there's way too many already. How dare you suggest that only ambitious bloggers have interesting, well-expressed thoughts? As long as most bloggers read most comments, this site is a great place for informed conversation.

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critics wondered how Obama could deliver change while keeping his promise of bipartisanship

I think those critics weren't at all listening to his definition of change. Willful deafness.

From his books, his 2004 keynote address (i.e., breaking down the red vs. the blue,) onward, through a lot of things he said and wrote, he meant he wanted one of the major changes to be breaking down partisanship.

The post-partisan thing is no blithe sound-bite to him. Seems to me that majority rule over partisanship is one of his few ideological beliefs. He's a student of the constitution, and I suspect he sees protection of minorites and special interests is mainly the business of the judicial branch and not the executive or Congress. He has enunciated in a lot of ways that it's destructive to efficient government to give special interests, including liberal ones, a lot of access over the majority wishes.

Let me say I do think a lot of his young "fans" got the message, that the postpartisan thing was part of his appeal to them. They were raised on cynicism about the partisan he said/she said, liberal vs. conservative to and fro in the media and on the net (the more educated among them also know what postmodernism is and are even cynical about that :-))

With the netroots left, the willful deafness thing interested me as a phenomenon while it was happening. Because in many cases, it seemd it was willful deafness self-imposed after most of the other primary contenders dropped out. At first, they saw him as he really was, and equated him with Hillary, both unacceptable. Then, all of a sudden, he becomes a stand in for all their liberal dreams, despite all the things he said before. Because of Clinton derangement syndrome? I dunno, but I sure thought it was strange to see so many politically savvy people falling for an extreme difference in the kind of change each one would produce.

My own problem was wondering about his sincerity about how he presented and skills, whether he would walk the walk. I see more evidence every day that he is and was sincere, and he is so far, hiring the skills.

A related: Rahm Emmanuel in today's New York Times:

“Even though the majorities are big, the challenges are of such a magnitude that we’re all inheriting, it’s going to require bipartisanship to solve,” Mr. Emanuel said in an interview after completing a round of meetings with Congressional Republicans. “We’re not lip-synching bipartisanship here.”

Mr. Emanuel...signaled to Republicans that the president-elect wanted to work alongside them. He handed out his personal cellphone number, urging them to call at any hour if they needed to reach him, and he asked them to submit their ideas for the economic recovery plan and other issues of potential agreement.

Even when they were in the majority, Republicans were often frustrated with the Bush administration’s lack of outreach to Congress. They said Mr. Emanuel’s arrival on Capitol Hill less than three weeks after the election — though no breakthroughs were made on issues — sent a good preliminary message.


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Thanks. I saw that too. The article is interesting in noting that Republicans are responding favorably to Obama's initiative, despite that the firm convictions of many bloggers here that Republican legislators will never work with Obama under any circumstances.

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Bush never worked with Congress and Congress only worked for Bush, not with him. For agreeeing to this patrimonial relationship, which is an insult to democracy and the American system of checks and balances, many of those who worked for Bush are leaving with Bush. In another 6 years, we may be rid of the rest of them, and hopefully Benedict Lieberman too!

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I'm one of those young "fans" and I understood, very clearly, what he meant by change. I've been very disappointed in the reaction from the Left. I was originally drawn to websites like this because of the shared disdain for the mainstream media - they lie, leave out important facts, make controversies out of non-issues, ignore the more significant stories, etc. Now the media picked up this meme of "Is this change we can believe in?" within ONE week of Obama's win and the Left helped to drive this story. And when the media brings up this issue they never fail to mention how Obama's supporters are turning against him. I wonder what gave them that idea?

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You said....."So where is the change? When Obama spoke of change during the campaign, he rarely referred to radical progressive policy changes."

No, he just allowed most of his followers to believe that's what he meant.

Obama started off from day 1 promising to "Change" the way things are done in Washington. You need to elaborate a bit on this point. I am in agreement with what you are saying, and was not fooled by grandiose talk during the campaign. I've read the key parts of "Audacity", so I did not project all my hopes and dreams onto him. But I think you are a bit too generous in your depiction of Obama's campaign as not promising big, progressive policy change as well (which I think we still may get, by the way).

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"Allowed" them how? The words coming out of his mouth regarding change were consistent, and as you know, Audacity is a pretty centrist (if left-leaning) and standard Democratic platform book. Should he have told people to quit listening to how various blogs characterized him and instead listen to what he actually says -- or should he have assumed that most of his supporters were adults with critical thinking skills, able to discern his platform from the multitude of media put forth directly by his campaign?

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Part of his political magic is the ability to have people project their hopes and wishes and find them in him. All charismatic politicians have this trait (including Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton). Obama wanted votes -- that's the reason he didn't dissuade anyone. He didn't lie to them, but he didn't constantly point out their projections either. Standard when running a political campaign. The danger, of course, is when you actually have to govern -- and the misperception becomes stark and clear. This is Obama's next challenge.

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I'd say the 2nd option.

Agreed, it wasn't Barack's job to explain to us what exactly he meant by "Change". I guess many just did exactly what he figured they would do, and projected all their hopes and dreams onto him and the campaign. Surprisingly, the hand wringing since Nov. 4th has been kept to a minimum, and many fervent progressives (myself included) seem happy we have a competent, engaged and dynamic leader ready to take over. Given the circumstances we find ourselves in, I think it would be silly to hope for much more than that.

But, I still think there is a teeny, tiny bit of bait and switch going on. Most people didn't envision hundreds of billions of dollars for banks as the way we were going to "change the world". This isn't Obama's policy, I understand, but he and the new team seem ok with it.

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To be fair, the Economic Crisis is a pretty new problem.

But, there seems to be a troubling lack of accountability being taken over the bailouts, by anyone. No one wants to own this policy, so instead of being a smart, managed program, we are getting fleeced. Obama isn't in charge yet, but he and the Economic Superfriends need to get out ahead of this fast, or they risk being lumped in with all the rest of these corrupt, inept politicians who are handing bags of cash to banks.

2 months is a long time. As this goes on, and the worse it gets, the more it reflects poorly on the new team, even though they are basically powerless at the moment.

This Transition is a tricky business, to be sure.

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It might be wise for we, the bloggers, to remind everyone that the President-Now is doing damn little about this crisis, which began a year ago, even to the point of abrogating $350 billion of the bailout to Obama while they sit on their hands for the next two months. Congress is hearing more from the President-Elect then they ever did from the President-Now. I would even bet that Congresspeople who have lost their seats are hearing from Team Obama.

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Yes - bait and switch. One can argue that Obama never promised what his supporters are expecting of him. But, they are expecting it, nevertheless. And, if and when he fails to produce, there will be blowback. And there will be ambitious up-and-comers waiting in the wings to take advantage of the disenchanted.

2012 will be a tough campaign for Obama, if he fails to make some real, substantive progress in the next 4 years.

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It will be tough for the Dems in general. Obama must make real progress on at least one issue -- otherwise the present mess will be attributed to the Dems. Couple this with the end of cheap oil (as soon as the economy improves expect to see oil back where it was a few months ago) and you see that things like National Healthcare aren't even important at present.

I guarantee a bunch of GOPers were happy to have lost this election... they are looking at the larger picture.

We don't have the natural resources and manufacturing capacity to simply spend our way out of this situation like in 1932. Something different will be required.

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Yep. And every misstep will be magnified by the opposition. The public has an extremely short memory, it will be as if any misery that the country is experiencing was created by Obama personally. I think that it's very important that we not make excuses for his administration - as his supporters, we should be his toughest critics. This guy is coming in w/extremely high expectations. He has his work cut out for him and good enough won't be good enough come 2012.

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We know what policy changes Obama plans. He has articulated them in some detail. Whether they constitute big progressive policy change is, I suppose, in the eye of the beholder. The mistake, I think, is to believe that Obama will launch big progressive initiatives that he did not announce or retaliate against Republicans and conservative Democrats or follow a strictly progressive script. He never promised that.

I will acknowledge that though he did specify what he meant by change, he didn't hit people over the head with it. You had to read his books and/or his campaign literature. I suppose that there's a sin of omission in there.

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G. I think you're precisely right that the preferred model is fairly technocratic, albeit using processes which aim for more transparency, bipartisanship, etc. And - back in 2006/07 - I would have agreed with much of this course. Good management plus good intentions can produce a lot of positive change, especially after the wreckers have been in for so long.

My reading of the times, the world right now, is that "events" appear to be putting us in a place where that approach alone... may not be sufficient. It isn't to say we don't need good minds, good managers, transparency, etc. We still do. But it now feels more to me like we're in a time where, if we "simply" follow the preferred courses from 2 years ago, most of the proposals and designs we bring forward will be over-run by events.

The problem then becomes one of how fast can these top-notch people open their minds, take in a larger scope of events than they had previously seen, understand whole new connections, and whole new opportunities, listen to new voices, and adjust. Intellectual flexibility is a rare thing, and not one found in all leading minds. Sometimes you need new people, whole new approaches, etc.

I don't blame Obama for starting this way. No one is ready for "change" if the type we may well need - not Congress, not the media, not the public. So he probably "had" to start here. but the ability to hire, fire, shift to new power centers, revamp before throwing good money after bad, these are the skills I suspect he'll need most. And... my personal opinion... I think he has some of these skills. Here's hoping.

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Whether Obama promised radical policy change and whether we need radical policy change are separate questions.

But I'm not sure that I agree with you about doing something radically different to handle the crisis. It's not my sense that the models are broken but that people ignored what they should have known. I'm not talking about Hooverian obstinacy or McCainian pollyannism. We need dramatic action, but I don't know that it needs to diverge from orthodox assumptions about what constitutes dramatic action. In fact, I would be a little nervous about a course of action that was too untested.

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I hear you G, but I do think that the models are broken, and that a lot of economists would admit that. It's worth noting in this regard that the "progressive" voices we hear (such as a Krugman) understand VERY well that 'confidence' & 'animal spirits' etc. is critical. Doing anything to "talk things down" even further is a real no no. And if you DO so, there will be a very strong "shunning" which would follow. Imagine you're a Krugman, and you sit down beside Buffett - who's just sunk billions of his money in, in part betting on a recovery of that 'confidence.' That chat might be a bit chilly, I'd suspect.

A couple of examples on the models. Set the financial crisis to one side, and assume we're entering a real recession. But we're entering with a mammoth trade deficit - $700 billion, the equivalent of a Bail-Out every year. Plus large Federal deficits, plus consumers at 0% savings. Well, that's possible to "model," but there's not a lot of examples to look at where that occurred in a leading nation; nor much agreement on how to "fix" even that small subset of problems.

Beneath that level, we have some amazing other "new" variables, which often aren't - or maybe even can't - be fit into existing models. Take China, India & the rise of similar nations. We are talking competitors who can produce 00's of millions of English-speaking, educated workers with access to the Internet and to major trade routes - backed by Gov'ts with hundreds of billions in cash, much of it denominated in your currency, who could spend that at home... or invest it in your nation.

If you wanted to model that, you might have to imagine something like Canada suddenly having a population not of 33 million, but of 333 million - and with hundreds of millions of workers scratching for work. Here's just one question to put to that model. "What effect is this likely to have on the investment & expansion & hiring plans of firms?" I suspect the results would be distinctly unhappy, and maybe even produce results that didn't make much sense.

To bring this back to Obama's team, and dramatic action... I agree that NO ONE is either ready for that yet, not am I convinced anyone knows WHAT to do. My great hope is that they can stabilize the ship, and basically... buy us time, to figure this out, and get ourselves positioned to respond.

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The models are of course far from perfect. There are simply way to many variables to effectively model the economy. It's like modeling the weather more than three days out. But you can at least get likely scenarios.

Deficit spending, federal guarantees, and interest rate reduction are all tools that we've used effectively in the past. Now it's possible that those tools won't work this time. If confidence in the government itself fails, the guarantees will be meaningless, and we won't be able to borrow any money to inject into the economy. But that doesn't necessarily violate existing models. That just means that according to existing models, we're fucked.

Japan's extended recession seemed to violate the usual models--neither interest rate reductions nor spending pulled them out--and that worries me. But there are other explanations for Japan's troubles, which I discussed in a previous post.

As for the new variables of China and India, they may change the context for the U.S., but they don't change the fundamental economic models, which aren't specific to the U.S. Frankly, a falling U.S. and soaring China concern me in the long run but not in terms of this recession. It's a world economy, and though we compete, we're all in this together. If the U.S. collapses, so will China. We've already seen how weakness in our economy still rattles the rest of the world. One day, China may be able to power on without us. Or more likely, their economy will drive ours so that we rise and fall on their lead. But not yet.

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If the U.S. collapses, so will China.

Though this is the popular opinion, I do not believe it to be the case.

China doesn't need our markets much longer -- in fact, they bought our lousy debt simply to prop up our markets so as to build out their manufacturing infrastructure. Once upon a time when the US was a true industrial giant (mid 20th century), we sold largely to ourselves. This started happening during the electrification of the country and the massive industrialization of the country (think Henry Ford) and continued into the 60s or so. WWII only made it easier, because in addition to our own markets, we owned much of the worlds manufacturing capacity.

China's domestic markets are even larger. As soon as they start ratcheting up (a la Henry Ford -- make cars his employees could afford), their interest in us is over. And they are close to being able to do it. Their biggest issue is a sustained source of cheap energy as we pass through peak oil.

Now couple this with the fact that China's currency is being hoarded. It can be used to buy oil and you can see the writing on the wall already:

a) China is involved with Russia, Indonesia, and the Mid East to form an East-Asia energy block.

b) China is ramping up refinery facilities for heavy sour oil. Exactly the type that comes out of Venezuela. Currently, the US is the only country with capacity to refine that stuff -- which is why we still get plenty of oil from Chavez and he still sells it to us.

China only need decide when to write off their holdings of dollars. In fact, they can now pressure the US in all sorts of ways... because we need them not to write it off.

China's largest issue is the liberalization that tends to come with increased prosperity associated with rising GDP per capita. However, there is nothing saying that Western Capitalism is the only form of free-market enterprise. Asian Capitalism may involve more government and yet allow for modest liberalization.

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And that explains why China's economy just happened to stutter at the same time ours did (not to mention Europe's)? When your largest trading partner takes a hit, you feel the pain. That said, China's growth is so strong that it's got a long way to fall before it's close to recession level. And yes, they may rebound quickly.

In the long run, Chinese growth means declining U.S. influence and more pressure on the environment, but in the short run, their growth actually helps our economy, assuming that investors don't simply dump dollars in a race for the yuan. Chinese growth means that they'll import more from us and invest more in us. I actually worry that China may crash too; the last thing that the world needs right now is another Asian crisis. Remember, the Great Depression was worldwide. I worry because I believe in the "what goes up must come down" theory of economics. China has been expanding very rapidly for a long time. To me, that spells b-u-b-b-l-e.

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When your largest trading partner takes a hit, you feel the pain.

True enough. You can get surprised by something's timing -- but that probably means they are redoubling efforts to disengage from us sooner.

As far as investing goes, the Chinese have already invested in us. They are in a growing position to take over us. I know this sounds a bit alarmist, but they are working on a totally different plane: long term interactions, trends.

We are like the degenerate gambler that keeps getting a stay from our loan shark -- until we are in so deep that payoff becomes impossible and they come in and bust-out our business.

You can't live on dreams forever. We produce little, consume much, and pretend to be a "service economy". We might be useful for cheap labor at some point, but again, that's being an indentured servant.

Follow the increasing closeness between China and Russia. Without ideologies to get in the way, they are becoming quite the axis of power.

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China's going into recession, though because of the nature of their transition economy - rural to urban - anything below 6-7% growth will be devestating and qualify as its "recession".

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2008/10/recession_comes_to_china.cfm

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12606998

Additionally, they are abandoning extremely needed environmental reforms because of the downturn. What other essentials they're backing off of, I hazard to guess.

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I don't know G. I do think there may be so many new variables that basing solutions off historical models might actually be detrimental.

Interest rates are at the floor, right? So all we've really got left at this point is deficit spending, according those models?

I must admit, I can't help but end up at this conclusion quite often:

...according to existing models, we're fucked.

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I dearly hope not. But if that's the deal, inventing new models won't solve the problem.

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Well said.

If I were better at putting my thoughts into words, I would be Quinn, Esq.

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Obama won't have to deliver change, it's already hurtling towards us. The question is how we will adapt to change, and how well Obama will facilitate our adaptation.

A few weeks before the election, I was chatting with one of the cleaning men that show up here around closing time and we started talking about Obama. He was worried for Obama but figured he must have a calling. A few days after the election, the same fellow was almost poetic, telling me how we all have to change, to be better, because Obama can't do it all by himself. That may have been the essence of a sermon he just heard, but it sounded heartfelt.

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Obama won't have to deliver change, it's already hurtling towards us

This is indeed the irony. Whatever change happens, he's going to be lauded or blamed for it now. Bet he wishes he had used a different campaign slogan. There's rumblings of an worldwide earthquake, volcano and tsunami, in a way it's kind of absurd to be arguing about what change Obama intended a year and a half ago. This is often the case with high level executive elections, though maybe not to the magnitude of this one. That is why, even though I am very much an "issues" person, I am very hesitant to criticize as "low information voters" those who vote based on character or values. I guess in a way I use a candidate's position on issues to judge character and values....

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Nice work Genghis, really. Just a footnote and that is that I see something more in President-Elect Obama than I did in the campaign of Mike Dukakis. Back then, Dukakis told us, "It's not about ideology, it's about competence". I would say that the technocratic approach of Obama goes beyond running a railroad; he wants to take us somewhere in addition to just putting us on the right tracks. . .or something like that. And by default, I think the economic crisis we are in forces him to go beyond efficient and transparent government. At this point, his destiny, and ours, is tied to to what happens with the economy.

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I agree that Obama offered us the possibility of something more, but other than more participation in the process of government (transparency) and less partisan bickering (unity), I'm not sure what that would that would be, so color me skeptical on that. I'm looking forward to the inaugural address nonetheless.

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I can't wait to see what this new bipartisanship will look like. I don't think I've seen it ever before. I also look forward to living in a technocracy. I hope he can pull it off because it will set the Republicans back a while.

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Johnson worked effectively with Republicans, but that was before I was born. Johnson was also a closed door kind of guy.

We've already seen an angry segment of the population demonize Obama, and I expect that those who represent them will never work with Obama. Ironically, that actually offers an opportunity for him. If he can drive a wedge between the angry right and conciliatory moderates, the Republicans will be consumed with infighting for years to come. Moreover, that anger could serve to brand the right wing unfavorably and help to marginalize them.

As for a technocracy, I bet that we won't even notice it--in a good way. The evidence of an efficient government is a lack of scandals and failures. And frankly, as long as Obama doesn't completely bungle it, and if the recession doesn't last four years, he'll be in solid shape for the next election, though Democrats may suffer in the midterms. Effective or not, the power of presidents is limited, and people still vote the economy.

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I can't wait to see an effective government! (Fingers crossed) I know I've never seen that before. ;)

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One of the changes that I don't see commented on here yet is the change in the way people relate to government. I think that one of the things Obama has in mind when he talks about bringing change to Washington is involving citizens in the process of running their own government.

We've always had the ability to contact our elected officials, but it's the lobbying groups that really get their ear. Letters and emails from individuals get cursory replies that don't really address the issues raised and instead attempt to give the impression that the writer has been heard while the official goes on with little or no thought to the message (unless it can help him or her to get reelected).

And here is Obama, soliciting our feedback and asking for our ideas as well as promising to keep us informed and involved through the internet.

That's some pretty radical change, if you ask me.

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You can have all the access points that you like. It is how Washington processes that access that really counts. As I wrote in an extended column way back, FAXing to your elected official in Congress is the absolute best way of getting their attention -- NOT email, and NOT the website textboxes.

That said, Obama can only change how the Executive branch interacts with the citizens, not Congress. Even then, nothing is going to replace "money talks" -- that's been going on for thousands of years. If you have money (e.g. power), you will always get better access.

As for me, I'm just happy with the prospect of a little transparency. Like real press conferences again. But, I admit, I've lowered my expectations in the last few years.

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In short, Obama intends to run technocracy, a government characterized not by ideology, partisanship, or politics, but by practical effectiveness, a government that the American people, both red and blue alike, can believe in. And that would most certainly be a change.

There is a huge problem with this line of kumbaya thinking: Effectiveness at what?

If Bush had been effective at replacing Social Security with private investment accounts, is that merely a good "technocracy"? No, it's a profoundly political and ideologically driven policy!

If Obama is effective at expanding the size of the US military, as he has promised, that also profoundly alters society. It is not merely "technocratic"; in fact it has a ripple effect on everything else that is possible or not possible, by consuming resources that might be used elsewhere.

Red (business roundtable) and blue (working class citizens) cannot possibly believe alike in the effective expansion and enforcement of the right of people to organize a labor union. It simply isn't possible!! One side hates unions, the other would like to be able to join them. Obama must choose. And that choice is political, like it or not... Government is inherently political.

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Thank you!!! I thought it was only me having visions of Germanic technocrats making the trains run on time.

Government is inherently political because it is about people.

It would be a shame if the first black President felt the need to prove that he has no soul or heart.

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I do believe that this is the first time I've been accused of kumbaya thinking at TPM. The flaw in your logic is the assumption that the inherent influence of politics in government means that all governments are equally political. I never claimed that Obama would eliminate politics or ideology, only that his government would be more practical and less political/ideological than other recent administrations.

As to bipartisan issues, here are a few for you:
- A healthy economy
- National security
- Effective disaster response
- Reducing the influence of lobbyists
- Deficit reduction
- Affordable, quality health care

Liberals and conservatives may argue about the best way to get from A to B, but we all want B.

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Please allow me to tack on reducing energy dependence.

And trains that run on time.

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I do not agree that we want the same things at all. Just listen to most Republicans on the big 3 bailout issue. They see it as their big chance to destroy unions and to hell with the economic impact of destroying the American automotive industry and its suppliers in the process.

I KNOW we don't all mean the same thing when it comes to "national security". To me, that means peace to others that means endless wars in far off countries I don't care about and war profits for their favorite lobbyists.

Effective disaster response to the right is taking care of business in a disaster. To others it also means taking care of the people, even the poor ones who even a Democrat running for President will no longer talk about.

Neither party is serious about doing anything about lobbyists.

Deficit reduction is all about what you cut and and who and what you tax and left and right do not agree.

To the right affordable health care is what anyone earning over $100K or more can purchase and the rest of us don't deserve it. If God wanted us healthy, he'd have made us rich.

It isn't about the most effective way to get from A to B. It's about whether you value A or B.

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I would add to that, Genghis, that I learned a lesson from my brother's friend who after achieving a rich wife, commented to my brother about the first Gulf War: "The grease monkeys fight the wars". There are all too many people who actually feel better when others do worse. We do not all value equality or equity. To some it's a game of Survivor - keep throwing people off the island till there is no one left but me.

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We just had posted on this site not more than 48 hours ago a story where the Republicans had to stop universal health care because they know if the Democrats deliver it they (the GOP) will be in the wilderness for 40 years.

They must obstruct! And they know it. So why are we pretending otherwise?

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Neither party is serious about doing anything about lobbyists.

Yes, thank you for pointing this out explicitly. I don't know why people on the left just assume that those who run for power aren't interested in becoming powerful. Saints don't go into politics, they go into religion.

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Bluebell, Obama's rejection of this way of thinking is part of the reason that a majority of Americans elected him President.

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Exactly! You said it better than me.

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Until you define the terms nothing means anything.

Is national security where we spend more than the whole word combined on our military, or where we spend twice what the rest of the world combined spends?

Is a "healthy economy" what we had during the growth periods of the last 30 years -- which saw a rapid rise in inequality to levels not seen since 1930? According to the business roundtable, you betcha! Even during what some Democrats fondly recall as the "good" economy of the Clinton years, millions of Americans were losing good jobs and having to work harder and borrow more just to stay even. That's how we went from world's biggest creditor to world's biggest debtor.

And conservatives actually do not want "affordable quality health care" if getting that requires getting rid of for-profit health insurance. They don't forget their ideology! They never pretend that real choices have to be made between parties with competing interests.

It is most assuredly kumbaya thinking to ignore this stuff -- it throws away class differences which are omnipresent.

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It is most assuredly kumbaya thinking to ignore this stuff -- it throws away class differences which are omnipresent.

Only if you attribute beliefs to me that I don't actually hold. But thank you for the assurance. Once again, as with political vs. practical, you're stuck in dichotomy. Democrats = A, Republicans = B, and never the twain shall meet. Because you acknowledge only the possibility of complete unity or complete disagreement, you see me as suggesting the former, which would indeed be kumbaya.

But believe or not, most Republicans aren't insane, and it's possible for people from two different parties to agree on some things even if they disagree on many others. You can seek out differences, or you can seek out common ground. Obama has promised from the very beginning, long before he ran for president, to seek out common ground, which is not to say that he expects everyone to agree with him all the time. You do realize that some of the Republicans you dismissed with a casual wave actually voted for Obama?

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Yes I realize some Republicans voted for Obama, but I don't particularly care if appeasing them means we have to give up EFCA and real affordable health care reform. Some Democrats voted for Reagan. They got spit in the face.

In fact, to me, one huge test is EFCA.

Obama actually promised to support it. So he's on the record.

It is clearly a partisan issue over which most Republicans will fight to the death. Because they know that more labor unions means more working class votes for Democrats means Republicans will be wandering in the wilderness for 40 years. (The white non-college-educated vote? McCain won by 18 among non-union, Obama won by 23 among union. It could not be any clearer what will happen if there are more unions!)

The main reason why I voted for Obama with anything other than holding my nose is EFCA. And if the Dems don't push for this law now, you definitely will know that this talk of "change" was a con job.

If Miller and Franken win, then the bill will certainly pass. If not, then even if there were just two Republicans in the Senate, te bill would certainly pass. But otherwise there will be a thin line of 41 or 42 Republicans blocking the door.

I will not toss this aside because it's more important.

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It is unfortunately a common fallacy to consider that ideology is an obstacle to "practical effectiveness". This is like saying that a map is an obstacle to path finding. Ideas are important and having them and making them clear are key qualities of effective leadership. If a leader has held many positions of responsibility before it is possible to know his thinking through his actions, but if not, taking clear and decisive steps in accord with clear statements of ideas and principals is vital to set a tone of practical effectiveness. The weak and vacillating are soon tested and often broken.

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Good question and good answer. Thanks, Xenghis.

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What I seem to see again and again is a "fan club" mentality, where the personality of the leader is more important than any of his policies or action, which are justified by his doing them, not by the acts themselves.

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That works both ways. If Obama were to turn water into wine, people on the right would complain it was elitist he didn't turn it into beer.

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I suspect those who thought Obama would substantially change things will be disappointed. His cabinet is full of Clinton retreads so I'd expect Clintonian policies. This talk of bipartisanship is baloney, Obama hasn't done much to reach across any aisles yet (aside from that photo op with defeated McCain). I'll wait for him to take the reins, but don't expect much innovation. Obama will catter to every lefty with a wish list. Universal health care, abortion, gay rights, non-intervention, global warming and a generally socialistic approach will pervade whatever emanates from the new administration.

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The bipartisanship was to reach across the aisle... to the Clintons.

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Obama will catter to every lefty with a wish list. Universal health care, abortion, gay rights, non-intervention, global warming and a generally socialistic approach will pervade whatever emanates from the new administration.
Gee, if I didn't have such bad bronchitis I'd love to try whatever it is that you are smoking.
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Genghis,

I took a couple of stabs at posting a comment in response, but the thing kept on getting longer, so I ultimately turned it into a post of its own, outlining where I agree and where we part. I'd be curious to hear your response.

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"Bipartisan unity" is quickly and rightfully becoming a misnomer.

Multi-partisan unity might be the better term, now that the no-bid, book-cooking, pre-emptive doctrine torturers are done having their way tith all of us.

They depended on a two-sided split to steal their power in the first place.

By choosing the best and brightest, rather than the most well-connected, Obama's proving that there are more than two sides to every election.

And it is quite encouraging to see our TPM prism split the daily beam into a rainbow, instead of two opposites looking for a fight.

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"And it is quite encouraging to see our TPM prism split the daily beam into a rainbow, instead of two opposites looking for a fight."

That was meant as a complimentary nod to Gengis and those who share his realistic and optimistic appraisal of Obama's progress thus far.

I won't deny, the red and the blue still live quite clearly in opposition in some states and places.

But for most of us, among the biggest benefits of Obama's historic political trajectory (ballistic, one might call it) is that this archaic myth of two well-defined sides with clearly delineated frontiers has once and finally been busted.

Each of us has opinions that cross over the fulcrums that the media and the madmen have tried to place on some ideological teeter-totter. Our politics should reflect our personal and cultural and ideological diversity, and forever be freed from the simple-mindedness of some sort of bi-partisan political realm.

Ther is no such place, except in the pernicious policies of Fox News and the trash talk of drive-time radio.

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And it is quite encouraging to see our TPM prism split the daily beam into a rainbow, instead of two opposites looking for a fight.

Agreed

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